Two at Toga (2025)

[Sethcarter]

Good work... great start and a few weeks to go

[theguarantee]

^Great work Mo, thought Soiree was interesting and then talked myself off it, good job consolidating that opinion into a nice pick 5 score.

7/12/25:
Best Bet: Race 8 #2 El Rezeen 8/1 - Obviously won't be getting this price with all the scratches but I really loved that prep at Keeneland and have been waiting for him to return as I think as a 4yo English Channel he's just starting to figure it out. Would've liked to bet him at a much bigger number in a full field to be honest but this card totally crumbled for me and my opinions (just like yesterdays) when all the turf races I had interesting opinions on got washed off...so I'll stick here and I do think he has a legit shot to beat Far Bridge and will be a bigger price.

Best Value: Race 7 # 8 Holiday Pay 12/1 - Just think he gets overlooked in here and I do find it interesting that Jose is back...I have that last race competitive with the logical contenders in here and I'm not fully sure I trust that to be honest, but I don't mind taking the shot at a price in a field that you can really pick through the form of a lot of the logicals even if none of them would surprise me if they won...

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Thanks guys.

Society Man could not close any distance today but Excellent Truth was very game in the Diana, fighting back to beat She Feels Pretty. It was an incredible effort and was happy to see her put it all together today. She paid $8.00 to win and $3.00 to show, getting me just over the century mark in money back.

$48.00 wagered
$100.10 returned

I don’t love the card for Sunday and am not sure I’ll play much, maybe a small late Pick 5 singling Schwarzenegger to start it.

My picks:

Race 1. #2 Bob Mo, 12/1. Bob Mo should be running up front and he gets a major jockey upgrade. He’s got a couple figures that fit here and so maybe he’s able to run them off their feet at a big price. The projected favorite Chillax really doesn’t stand out that much on figures and not sure he’ll get a favorable pace scenario.

Race 9. #1 Jet Sweep Joe, 8/1. This horse beat older last out at Woodbine, including a couple respectable turf sprinters. What I liked was that he rated and then ran them down in the stretch and I’m hopeful he takes that approach here as a few of these horses should hook up on the front end.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks guys.

Society Man could not close any distance today but Excellent Truth was very game in the Diana, fighting back to beat She Feels Pretty. It was an incredible effort and was happy to see her put it all together today. She paid $8.00 to win and $3.00 to show, getting me just over the century mark in money back.

$48.00 wagered
$100.10 returned

I don’t love the card for Sunday and am not sure I’ll play much, maybe a small late Pick 5 singling Schwarzenegger to start it.

My picks:

Race 1. #2 Bob Mo, 12/1. Bob Mo should be running up front and he gets a major jockey upgrade. He’s got a couple figures that fit here and so maybe he’s able to run them off their feet at a big price. The projected favorite Chillax really doesn’t stand out that much on figures and not sure he’ll get a favorable pace scenario.

Race 9. #1 Jet Sweep Joe, 8/1. This horse beat older last out at Woodbine, including a couple respectable turf sprinters. What I liked was that he rated and then ran them down in the stretch and I’m hopeful he takes that approach here as a few of these horses should hook up on the front end.

Bob Mo is scratched. Going to stay in race 1 and go with #4 Classicist, 5/2 — who should wire this field with simply a repeat of his 2YO form and will destroy the field with a step forward.

[Sethcarter]

Great start... seems wide open today. Struggling to put a pick 4 ticket together

[moses]

Originally Posted by Sethcarter

Great start... seems wide open today. Struggling to put a pick 4 ticket together

Good luck.

I like the 9 and 10 to possibly blow up the tote board in race 6. The horses look solid but getting overlooked due to connections.

[theguarantee]

^Good stuff Mo, keep it rolling...I am not trying to beat Governor Sam after much deliberation. Jet Sweep Joe's last was real nice though, maybe he can repeat it...I wanted to make a case for Insubordination who if getting enough pace might come with that grindy move and maybe found it's spot turf sprinting finally...but ultimately decided I'm singling Governor Sam and moving on.

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Floge 6/1 - I want to take a shot against Intermittent Fasting in here and while Gone and Forgotten makes the most sense and will be a prominant use for me in the late pick 4, I wanted to get a little more creative and landed on Floge. She has some back races that fit in here and I get that Jesus Romero taking over for Brad Cox and then runs her way over her head/doesn't fire will keep most off, I like the turnback to a sprint today, getting back into a class that she fits in.

Best Value: Race 10 #9 Soho Nights 12/1 - It's possible she just can't really run at all, I wish there was some signal that she was picking it up in the mornings but she has been working steadily since getting time off after the debut debacle...seems clear something went wrong with the break right after and she took some money in there...this seems like a more realistic level, I like that she gets a weight break with Elliott aboard and in a field this hungry she doesn't have to be all that much to have a big shot.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Good stuff Mo, keep it rolling...I am not trying to beat Governor Sam after much deliberation. Jet Sweep Joe's last was real nice though, maybe he can repeat it...I wanted to make a case for Insubordination who if getting enough pace might come with that grindy move and maybe found it's spot turf sprinting finally...but ultimately decided I'm singling Governor Sam and moving on.

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Floge 6/1 - I want to take a shot against Intermittent Fasting in here and while Gone and Forgotten makes the most sense and will be a prominant use for me in the late pick 4, I wanted to get a little more creative and landed on Floge. She has some back races that fit in here and I get that Jesus Romero taking over for Brad Cox and then runs her way over her head/doesn't fire will keep most off, I like the turnback to a sprint today, getting back into a class that she fits in.

Best Value: Race 10 #9 Soho Nights 12/1 - It's possible she just can't really run at all, I wish there was some signal that she was picking it up in the mornings but she has been working steadily since getting time off after the debut debacle...seems clear something went wrong with the break right after and she took some money in there...this seems like a more realistic level, I like that she gets a weight break with Elliott aboard and in a field this hungry she doesn't have to be all that much to have a big shot.

Good move singling Governor Sam as I tossed him and missed out on a pretty easy Pick 4 that paid OK (better than the early Pick 5).

Nice call on Soho Nights too. Didn’t win but paid pretty nicely to place.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Bob Mo is scratched. Going to stay in race 1 and go with #4 Classicist, 5/2 — who should wire this field with simply a repeat of his 2YO form and will destroy the field with a step forward.

Classicist didn’t quite destroy the field but he did win by about 2 lengths and paid $6.00 to win and $3.00 to place.

Totals are now:

$56.00 wagered
$109.10 returned

I don’t know if I’ll have time the next few days to really dig into the Wednesday card. I do see two horses already that I like so I’ll post them for now, but subject to change.

Race 2. #4 Innate, 15/1. Coming off a long layoff, expect this one to be a big price but there doesn’t seem to be anyone special in here. This one went off at 6/1 in stakes company as a 2YO, then disappeared. The work tab is light but this horse was viewed as talented at one point and lands in a spot where winning is within reach. Beer Run is the logical favorite here but he’s winless in 8 starts, including 6 races where he was 3/1 or under.

Race 9. #7 Marvelous Madison, 8/1. I thought last out was a pretty nice effort as she was close to the pace set by the talented Gata Brazil, which fell apart. Disco Star finished ahead of her but I like this one’s effort a little better. Marvelous Madison also just looks like a turf router to me, so I’ll take a swing on her at what should be a big price.

[theguarantee]

Gata Brazil was bad, Ocala Dream ran a pretty flat third.
El Rezeen was no match for Far Bridge and paid $2.90 to place. Holiday Pay is still running.
Floge didn't offer much run Sunday...got $19.60 to place for Soho Nights who was no match for the winner but ran OK in her return.

Wagered: $56.00
Returned: $114.60

[theguarantee]

7/16/25:

Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Charlotte's Heat 9/2 - Debated between her and Trail of Gold here I just think she's likely going to be a better price and I liked the debut, Casse is firing and I think this is the one horse who might just be more talented that the rest...bit of a weird path here but that could be muddying up the form and Castellano being aboard should ensure at least an OK price.

Best Value: Race 5 #2 Illmatic 7/2 - Not sure what kind of price to expect here but this seems like a field that it's hard to project and he looks most talented/best suited for this race today...the slow turf work will maybe get us better than expect value but he is bred for this and has the right connections to be a winner in here to me...couldn't really come up with any big prices today so I'll take a shot here and hope he proves best.

Good luck everyone.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Race 2. #4 Innate, 15/1. Coming off a long layoff, expect this one to be a big price but there doesn’t seem to be anyone special in here. This one went off at 6/1 in stakes company as a 2YO, then disappeared. The work tab is light but this horse was viewed as talented at one point and lands in a spot where winning is within reach. Beer Run is the logical favorite here but he’s winless in 8 starts, including 6 races where he was 3/1 or under.

And to think it sounded like you almost didn't think you could post this year...what a great call and tremendous work on the whole so far. Hope you scored out good on that one.

Hoping we can get a 5-7 exacta in the last, I'll have at least a few bucks on it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

And to think it sounded like you almost didn't think you could post this year...what a great call and tremendous work on the whole so far. Hope you scored out good on that one.

Hoping we can get a 5-7 exacta in the last, I'll have at least a few bucks on it.

Glad I decided to do it this year. Definitely cashed though only win and exacta bets as I didn’t play any of the horizontal bets early on.

I may need to play a 5-7 exacta. Had all my horizontals to the 7 but just got knocked out by Gilmore.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Classicist didn’t quite destroy the field but he did win by about 2 lengths and paid $6.00 to win and $3.00 to place.

Totals are now:

$56.00 wagered
$109.10 returned

I don’t know if I’ll have time the next few days to really dig into the Wednesday card. I do see two horses already that I like so I’ll post them for now, but subject to change.

Race 2. #4 Innate, 15/1. Coming off a long layoff, expect this one to be a big price but there doesn’t seem to be anyone special in here. This one went off at 6/1 in stakes company as a 2YO, then disappeared. The work tab is light but this horse was viewed as talented at one point and lands in a spot where winning is within reach. Beer Run is the logical favorite here but he’s winless in 8 starts, including 6 races where he was 3/1 or under.

Race 9. #7 Marvelous Madison, 8/1. I thought last out was a pretty nice effort as she was close to the pace set by the talented Gata Brazil, which fell apart. Disco Star finished ahead of her but I like this one’s effort a little better. Marvelous Madison also just looks like a turf router to me, so I’ll take a swing on her at what should be a big price.

Marvelous Madison wasn’t the controlling speed and just didn’t put in a strong effort. Innate wired the field, paying $42 to win and $11.40 to place.

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $162.50

I really don’t like Thursdays card too much. Nothing clever.

Race 6. #10 Ty Ty Rose, 10/1. Trainer hits at 30% first time on turf starts. He’s got two in this race and Santana seems to be his preferred rider. Santana has been riding well lately. I don’t love the outside post but I’ll take 10/1 here, especially as I don’t have strong thoughts on the rest of the card.

Race 9. #7 Enlighten, 8/5. Just seems the best horse in this race. Doubtful we get 8/5.

[moses]

I’m starting to come around on this card with a play for the late Pick 5…hoping the turf races stay on the grass.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Marvelous Madison wasn’t the controlling speed and just didn’t put in a strong effort. Innate wired the field, paying $42 to win and $11.40 to place.

Wagered: $64.00
Returned: $162.50

I really don’t like Thursdays card too much. Nothing clever.

Race 6. #10 Ty Ty Rose, 10/1. Trainer hits at 30% first time on turf starts. He’s got two in this race and Santana seems to be his preferred rider. Santana has been riding well lately. I don’t love the outside post but I’ll take 10/1 here, especially as I don’t have strong thoughts on the rest of the card.

Race 9. #7 Enlighten, 8/5. Just seems the best horse in this race. Doubtful we get 8/5.

I do like Enlighten still but a few things I don’t like for a short price. Switching that pick to:

Race 2. #2 Before the Wind, 6/1. Horrible ride last out imo. Irad should move this one up and have a nice inside trip.