Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thursday.

Race 5. #5 Edict, 8/1. I think #4 Heredia is the horse to beat and am against #3 Deep Satin who will be a short price but note that her top figure two races back came on softer ground. She could win, but I don’t want her at a short price. The #2 Les Reys intrigues me but this is a tough spot coming off the layoff. For me, I like #5 Edict who was very impressive two back, beating Heredia (both off a layoff) and ultimately running second to a good horse in Dynamic Pricing. I’ll forgive Edict for last out, which was still a decent performance but won’t be good enough to win today. In the New York, she was against better horses and probably didn’t like the added ground. She’s cutting back and she’s got Johnny V back on board and she’s going to be a big price.

Race 8. #7 Charlottesapproval, 6/1. I’m not totally sold on the ML favorite Movin’ On Up, even if it does bring back memories of one of my favorite TV shows growing up — The Jeffersons. Charlottesapproval seems better suited for a little more distance than her last out and she’s already run back to her 3YO figures so the hope is she’s ready to take a step forward. It’ll need to be a good step forward but it’s not impossible and I figure she’ll be a nice price. I do also like the #1 Ozara but I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s even lower than her 7/2 ML odds so I’ll go with the bigger price.

Going to switch this up a little.

I’ll stick with the #5 Edict in Race 5. But instead of Charlottesapproval, I’m going to land on #4 Alexis Zorba in Race 2. Alexis Zorba has already run 7 or 8 races in his career that are probably fast enough to win this race. Two back when he faced off against the ML favorite Devil in Disguise, the pace totally fell apart. Now, he’s in the Trombetta barn and reporting as a first time gelding. Maybe the ultimate equipment change gets this horse back on track. All he has to do is run back to his form from last summer. Maybe that’s too much to ask, but the favorite is going to be 4/5 and has a lot of questions of his own. Trombetta wins 15% with first starts with him. He’s a perfect 2-for-2 over the last 5 years when dropping a horse into claiming from the allowance ranks in their first start with him.

[theguarantee]

7/10

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Lost Horizon 4/1 - Really liked the debut effort with more kind of subtle early trouble than some others and then had to go super wide slowly getting into stride late which to me indicates Will love the stretch out today and being out of Wow Cat that makes sense. Tough to say but might get a decent enough price today given all that she has going in her favor with connections, breeding, etc.

Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Spinning Colors 10/1 - Always liked this horse and I get that she really get away with it last out. That said I think she’s more than capable of repeating even if facing a little more pressure in here today…I get the sense that she’s going to be dismissed off that effort and I think personally she’s a little better than most…Hening has been awfully quiet but I think she has this one sharp right now and if JV can ration out her speed that leaves most shaking their head again..and I’m not really that afraid of anyone in this field