Journalism and the Preakness

[moses]

I haven’t heard any talk about this specific issue so wanted to see if you guys have any thoughts.

My general understanding is that many horses don’t run as well in their next race following a tough race on a sloppy or wet track. I’d imagine if the sloppy track takes anything out of a horse, running back on two weeks rest becomes a bit tougher.

If I recall, Justify won the Preakness after winning the Derby on a sloppy track but it was the worst performance of his career, barely beating a horse like Bravazo (who also ran on a wet track in the Derby but also ran on 6 weeks rest coming out of the LA Derby). Bravazo also got a bit of help with Good Magic trying to press Justify a bit more in the Preakness.

That’s just an example, but a preface to my thought.

If putting up a huge performance on Derby day on a wet track has taken anything out of Journalism, should we really presume he is a good bet a something like 8/5? I have little doubt he’s the best overall horse in the race, but I’d imagine a horse like River Thames should be able to beat him. Only looking at photos, it looks to me like River Thames has filled out a bit and should be primed to run a huge race.

I won with Early Voting and National Treasure so maybe I’m biased toward horses coming in fresh. But it seems if anyone is going to beat Journalism, it’ll be River Thames.

Pletcher has never won the Preakness and Irad has never won a two-turn dirt race at Pimlico. Maybe it’s time?