ROI Results 3/1 @ Gulfstream

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

True NJS. I now have a $3 profit on the year and can finally see Cal in the yonder distance loose on the lead.

Not all that "yonder." I think I had more money after the first contest of the year than I have now. A couple of good plays will likely leave me in the dust. My strategy has been the horseracing equivalent of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope." Play the small fields and take the low hanging fruit and let everyone else make the braver plays that often end up with no return. Hasn't really worked all that well and the only dope I've roped is myself much of the time.

[Real Quiet]

Originally Posted by cal828

Not all that "yonder." I think I had more money after the first contest of the year than I have now. A couple of good plays will likely leave me in the dust. My strategy has been the horseracing equivalent of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope." Play the small fields and take the low hanging fruit and let everyone else make the braver plays that often end up with no return. Hasn't really worked all that well and the only dope I've roped is myself much of the time.

Said the spider to the fly

[cal828]

Well, you never know what you're going to get in horse racing. Even making what you think are ridiculously conservative plays, lady luck is just as likely to give a person the middle finger salute as to give a reward. I think last year toward the end of our contest I'm pretty sure I went a couple of months without a single positive score, but I guess, if I do have one of those all too rare moments of clarity and I make a big score, at least maybe I won't be too far in the hole for it to not make much of a difference.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

My strategy has been the horseracing equivalent of Muhammad Ali's "rope a dope." Play the small fields and take the low hanging fruit and let everyone else make the braver plays that often end up with no return.

Cal, I love your "rope a dope" analogy. As one of those ROI players who make the braver plays with my picks and often end up with nothing to show for it, I can certainly identify. Needless to say, my normal real dollar wagering is very different - otherwise would have had to file Chapter 13 long ago. Even that apparent low hanging fruit seems capable of squirting lemon juice in your eye. When the winning solution is too obvious, lots of other horseplayers (or the robot driven syndicates) will have driven the price down to such a low point as to be barely worthwhile.

[cal828]

I don't think there is any foolproof strategy. It's so hard to figure out what will pay and what won't. A person can easily outsmart themselves. I don't know whether it was last week or the week before there was a small field in one race that I passed up because there was a big favorite and I figured it wouldn't pay much. Race went off and the favorite was bet down to 1 to five, but it ended up
unbelievably paying $93 for a 50 cent tri. Another example of just what a dope I can sometimes be, but I'm pretty sure we've all been there.