12/7: Sha Tin/HKIR Night ~ Luke Middlebrook

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Happy Valley Selections (Wednesday, December 04, 2024)

Race 1: #2 Kasa Papa, #1 Ivictoriam, #9 Cool Blue, #3 The Azure
Race 2: #4 Good View Glory, #5 Super Eagle, #2 Fairy Horse, #3 Winning Heart
Race 3: #2 Lucky Touch, #3 Mighty Strength, #5 Hailtothevictors, #4 Corleone
Race 4: #10 Parents’ Love, #4 Champion Method, #11 Silver Spurs, #9 Sight Happy
Race 5: #4 Jumbo Fortune, #6 Prince Alex, #12 Super Baby, #3 Viva Chaleur
Race 6: #10 Smart Fighter, #4 Masterofmyuniverse, #2 Street Conqueror, #12 Crystal Powerful
Race 7: #6 Daring Pursuit, #10 Super Unicorn, #8 Jumbo Legend, #12 Soleil Fighter
Race 8: #5 Chateauneuf, #2 Gustosisimo, #4 Super Joy N Fun, #10 Giant Leap
Race 9: #8 Stunning Peach, #3 Chill Chibi, #6 Karma, #10 Red Hare King


Race 1 - AUSTRALIA HANDICAP

#2 Kasa Papa signalled a win two starts back with a narrow defeat, though he disappointed with a ninth-place finish next time after being checked and losing momentum at the top of the straight. He has since trialled well, draws perfectly in barrier 4, and teams up with the in-form Hugh Bowman. #1 Ivictoriam ran on strongly to grab third in his first outing in Class 5 despite a wide draw. Slightly better positioned in gate 9, and with James McDonald aboard, he should be in the mix. #9 Cool Blue has had challenging barrier draws but now gets a mid-field alley which may allow him to settle closer. His form has steadily improved since joining Cody Mo’s yard. #3 The Azure drops to Class 5 for the first time, and Zac Purton is booked for Frankie Lor. He led last time when finishing fifth, and while barrier 11 poses a challenge, his form will hold him in good stead.


Race 2 - FRANCE HANDICAP

#4 Good View Glory enters this race third-up for the season and appears ready to peak after two solid efforts, including an unlucky run last time when badly checked at the 150m, losing all momentum. He has since impressed in a trial and looks in fine form. #5 Super Eagle has drawn the paint and maps to receive every opportunity to break through at this level after missing by a head last time. #2 Fairy Horse reunites with Hugh Bowman and returns to Happy Valley, where he was a narrow runner-up two starts back. His latest run over a longer trip on the all-weather was forgivable. #3 Winning Heart has placed in his last two runs and now gains the services of Zac Purton, which should keep him firmly in contention.

Race 3 - GREAT BRITAIN HANDICAP

#2 Lucky Touch delivered an impressive performance on his first attempt at this course and distance, winning comfortably by over a length. He appears capable of repeating that success, provided Zac Purton can secure a smooth run from barrier 10. #3 Mighty Strength benefits from a low draw for the first time in two starts since sailing to victory three starts ago. While he needs to bounce back from his last-start disappointment, the conditions are in his favour. #5 Hailtothevictors makes his second career start for the David Eustace stable. His debut was promising despite excuses, including being crowded mid-race and pulling up lame. A subsequent trial win suggests improvement is forthcoming. #4 Corleone, now on his third career start, can rebound after a luckless second-up run where he encountered interference in the straight.

Race 4 - LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS' CHAMPIONSHIP (HANDICAP) -1ST LEG

#10 Parents’ Love broke through for a well-deserved win last start and returns to Class 4 this time. His subsequent impressive trial win indicates that this untapped four-year-old has found his rhythm, suggesting he can continue his progression. #4 Champion Method delivered a dominant victory last time following a significant betting plunge. A repeat of that performance would make him tough to beat once more. #11 Silver Spurs had no luck in the straight when finishing 10th last time but gets a chance to bounce back under James McDonald and a gear tweak. #9 Sight Happy gains the services of Zac Purton and benefits from a better draw after wide barriers hampered his chances in his last two starts. He is poised for improvement.

Race 5 - LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS' CHAMPIONSHIP (HANDICAP) - 2ND LEG

#4 Jumbo Fortune is only a one-time winner but has been a model of consistency this season since joining David Eustace's stable. Drawn ideally in barrier 3 for Hugh Bowman and with an abundance of speed on paper, he should get his opportunity to finish over the top in what promises to be a typically competitive Class 4 Happy Valley contest. #6 Prince Alex is worth following after his maiden win, as he encounters similar conditions to last time, now with James McDonald taking the reins. #12 Super Baby is well-drawn in barrier 1 and should enjoy a sweet run for Rachel King, with his last effort excusable due to a tough draw in barrier 12. #3 Viva Chaleur has dropped down the ratings and looks ready to strike soon. His last-start third was promising, and a quiet trial since should have him primed to win under Ryan Moore.

Race 6 - IRELAND HANDICAP

#10 Smart Fighter broke through for his first win last time after several consistent efforts. With James McDonald aboard and barrier 1 in his favour, he should have every chance to back it up and appears to have more to offer. #4 Masterofmyuniverse caught the eye on debut with a fast-finishing second after being held up in running. Although barrier 11 poses a challenge, he looks a horse with plenty of potential for the John Size stable. #2 Street Conqueror impressed when winning first-up for the Mark Newnham yard, but barrier 10 adds a twist to his follow-up attempt. #12 Crystal Powerful performed admirably when racing wide without cover from barrier 12 first-up, finishing a close fourth, and is well-placed to improve.

Race 7 - LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS' CHAMPIONSHIP (HANDICAP) - 3RD LEG

#6 Daring Pursuit is a promising type chasing a hat-trick of wins after an explosive first-up victory 35 days ago. Aiming to maintain his perfect record at Happy Valley (three from three), Ryan Moore is an excellent booking to guide him. #10 Super Unicorn lost on protest last start but is well-positioned to make amends from barrier 1 with Mickael Barzalona aboard. #8 Jumbo Legend is thriving this campaign and cannot be overlooked after a stunning win from barrier 12 last time. Now drawn in barrier 2, with Vincent Ho—his partner for all four career wins—retaining the ride, he is a leading chance. #12 Soleil Fighter was used up early last time and faded late but should enjoy a kinder trip here. Hollie Doyle from barrier 3 can secure an ideal position in a race lacking speed.

Race 8 - LONGINES INTERNATIONAL JOCKEYS' CHAMPIONSHIP (HANDICAP) - 4TH LEG

#5 Chateauneuf caught the eye last time when closing off strongly from a wide draw. Moving into barrier 4, he should settle much closer to the pace, giving him every chance to return to winning form under James McDonald in what shapes as a particularly competitive Happy Valley contest. #2 Gustosisimo impressed with a smart win from a wide gate last start. Hugh Bowman, from barrier 3, will have plenty of options tactically. #4 Super Joy N Fun is well-placed to improve from a more favourable draw after enduring barrier 12 in his last two starts. With an in-form Vincent Ho aboard, his prospects are boosted. #10 Giant Leap makes the leap to Class 3 following a comfortable Class 4 victory. Barrier 1 and Zac Purton combine to give him every chance to measure up in this tougher assignment.

Race 9 - JAPAN HANDICAP

#8 Stunning Peach looks set to resume his winning ways on his Derby trail. He put in a bold performance over an unsuitable 1600m first-up, running into fifth despite suffering a late check. The step up to 1800m second-up plays to his strengths, and he can solidify his standing as early Derby favourite. #3 Chill Chibi returned to winning form impressively last time when confidently ridden by Zac Purton. Now with James McDonald taking over from barrier 3, he’s poised to find a handy position early and can go on with it. #6 Karma needs to settle closer in the run to be a serious winning threat. Barrier 6 gives Vincent Ho the option to position him more prominently, which will improve his chances. #10 Red Hare King steps up to 1800m for the first time but is set to enjoy an ideal run from barrier 4 after a strong fourth from a wide draw last time.

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[Kasept]

Luke Middlebrook's Sha Tin Selections

(Sunday, December 08, 2024)

Race 1: #13 Invincible Lucky, #1 City Thunder, #12 Monarch County, #2 Patch Of Time
Race 2: #6 Master Phoenix, #12 Dragon Four Seas, #5 Jubilant Winner, #7 Packing Angel
Race 3: #1 Savvy Brilliant, #8 Patch Of Cosmo, #4 Divano, #13 Lifeline Express
Race 4: #3 Luxembourg, #6 Marquisat, #13 Stellenbosch, #1 Without A Fight
Race 5: #1 Ka Ying Rising, #12 Helios Express, #3 Lugal, #8 Toshin Macau
Race 6: #1 Bravehearts, #8 Family Jewel, #4 Star Mac, #6 Eighteen Carat
Race 7: #6 Galaxy Patch, #1 Soul Rush, #2 Voyage Bubble, #12 Jantar Mantar
Race 8: #1 Romantic Warrior, #9 Liberty Island, #4 Tastiera, #3 Straight Arron
Race 9: #3 Johannes Brahms, #6 Charming Legend, #13 Markwin, #9 Leslie
Race 10: #10 Packing Hermod, #9 Young Champion, #4 Drombeg Banner, #12 Rubylot


Race 1 - SILENT WITNESS HANDICAP

#13 Invincible Lucky returns from a seven-month layoff, but he showed ability last season. With Mark Newnham in fine form, his runners with a similar profile often warrant significant respect. This untapped four-year-old looks worth a chance in what is shaping up to be a wide-open contest. #1 City Thunder was heavily backed last time but was unlucky, caught behind a wall of traffic in the home straight and never getting a proper run. Should he find clear running from another low draw here, he can win. #12 Monarch County is making just his third career start but has been unlucky in both previous runs, racing wide without cover on each occasion, especially last time when he was caught very wide. With a much better draw in gate 2 here, he should be able to produce an improved performance. #2 Patch Of Time is in excellent form for the Cody Mo yard as he chases a hat-trick of wins.

Race 2 - BEAUTY GENERATION HANDICAP

#6 Master Phoenix impressed on debut with a strong second-place finish after being steadied early from a wide draw over 1200m. He can settle closer from barrier 1 and has looked sharp in a trial between runs. #12 Dragon Four Seas benefits from a jockey upgrade with James McDonald aboard and has drawn perfectly to suit his on-pace running style. Worked too hard early last time over a mile but should relish the drop back in distance. #5 Jubilant Winner is set to improve big-time after drawing a mid-gate, having faced an uphill task from gate 12 last time. Despite that, he finished strongly to claim sixth. He has since won a trial heat convincingly and is in fine form. #7 Packing Angel, though disappointing as a beaten favourite last time, only faded late after working hard early from a wide gate and can improve with a kinder run.

Race 3 - LORD KANALOA HANDICAP

#1 Savvy Brilliant has developed a habit of being slow out of the gates in recent runs. After being slowly away last time, he also suffered a check that worsened his chances but stormed home late into second. He should be bouncing back a winner here. #8 Patch Of Cosmo was up against it from a wide draw last time, forcing the jockey to settle back and ride for luck. He worked home strongly to finish fourth, just 1.5 lengths behind, in his first attempt at Class 3, which was highly encouraging. #4 Divano had no luck last time, being held up for most of the straight and eased down. He’s better than that effort suggests, as his prior form shows. #13 Lifeline Express ran a bold race on his first try in Class 3 from a wide gate. Third-up now and drawing a mid-field barrier improves his prospects.

Race 4 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG VASE

#3 Luxembourg profiles well in what is the most competitive of the International races. He came close in last year’s Hong Kong Cup, finishing just a short head behind Romantic Warrior. Earlier this year, he secured his first win over 2400m in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom and represents Aidan O’Brien, the most successful trainer in this race’s history. #6 Marquisat catches the eye from the yard of André Fabre, who trained the winner of this race last year, Junko. While disappointing as the favourite in the GP von Bayern last time, he was checked at the start and again on the home turn. His prior solid form reads well. #13 Stellenbosch, a three-year-old Japanese filly with Joao Moreira booked, is sure to attract plenty of attention. Her third-place finish in the Shuka Sho behind Cervinia sets her up well for this. #1 Without A Fight made a superb return from a 12-month layoff, finishing third to the high-class Via Sistina in the VRC Champions Stakes at Flemington. The 2023 Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup winner will strip fitter and cannot be overlooked.

Race 5 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG SPRINT

#1 Ka Ying Rising steps up to Group 1 company for the first time and would need to seriously underperform to lose this. The thriving four-year-old has cemented his status as Hong Kong’s leading sprinter–if not the world’s–with three impressive wins this season. He underscored his talent by breaking Sacred Kingdom’s long-standing 1200m track record at Sha Tin in his latest outing. #12 Helios Express has been in excellent form this campaign since resuming from his Derby campaign, finishing strongly into placings behind Ka Ying Rising on both occasions. #3 Lugal, one of three Japan-trained sprinters, delivered a big victory in September’s Sprinters Stakes over Toshin Macau when returning from a setback. He is a serious talent who cannot be overlooked. #8 Toshin Macau fits a similar profile, finishing hard along the fence for second to Lugal in the Sprinters Stakes.

Race 6 - JIM AND TONIC HANDICAP

#1 Bravehearts is in superb form since joining the Mark Newnham stable this term and is seeking a hat-trick of wins. His upward trajectory makes it hard to gauge his limits as he continues to impress. #8 Family Jewel, a handy type on the rise for Caspar Fownes, was a close runner-up to Bravehearts last time. With James McDonald aboard and a mid-draw, he could turn the tables depending on their respective positions in running. #4 Star Mac is edging closer to a breakthrough victory after placing in his last two starts. #6 Eighteen Carat was close-up to a strong pace in his latest run and understandably faded late. With a better draw in barrier 2, Andrew Atzeni has options to give him a more efficient trip.

Race 7 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG MILE

#6 Galaxy Patch might have disappointed as a beaten favourite last start, but his third-place finish in a small field came with plenty of excuses. He is better suited to a full field with a more genuine tempo and looks poised to secure his maiden Group 1 victory. #1 Soul Rush produced a scintillating effort from a wide draw in this race last year, finishing fourth behind Golden Sixty. His consistency since includes a third to Romantic Warrior in the Yasuda Kinen and a recent win in the Mile Championship. #2 Voyage Bubble placed second to Golden Sixty in this event last year and was last seen winning the Jockey Club Mile. He is set to enjoy a favourable on-pace run. #12 Jantar Mantar is a lightly raced talent from Japan with four wins from six starts, including an unbeaten record over 1600m. Not seen since May, his NHK Mile Cup victory from a wide draw was classy, and his Satsuki Sho third had a ton of merit in a fast-run race.

Race 8 - THE LONGINES HONG KONG CUP

#1 Romantic Warrior chases a record third consecutive Hong Kong Cup victory. Hong Kong’s reigning Horse of the Year has been in superb form, resuming with a commanding win in the Jockey Club Cup last month. He will take some beating here. #9 Liberty Island returned from a seven-month injury layoff in the Tenno Sho Autumn, caught wide throughout before fading late to finish 13th. The 2023 Japanese Triple Tiara winner, and a runner-up finish to Equinox in the Japan Cup, she demands respect if bouncing back. #4 Tastiera put in a game effort when second to Do Deuce in the Tenno Sho Autumn on his seasonal return, marking one ofhis better runs since winning the 2023 Japanese Derby. This trip looks ideal, and he should figure prominently. #3 Straight Arron may be overlooked and could inject some value. Fourth to Romantic Warrior last year with a luckless run, he is now third-up to his best distance and primed for his best effort since joining Ricky Yiu’s stable this season.

Race 9 - MAURICE HANDICAP

#3 Johannes Brahms showed plenty of promise on debut, finishing a narrow third from a wide draw, beaten less than a length. With natural improvement and a better barrier (4) this time, he looks the one to beat, especially with Zac Purton staying aboard. #6 Charming Legend was highly impressive on debut, scoring convincingly for Danny Shum. While Zac Purton seemingly opts for Johannes Brahms, James McDonald is a quality replacement. He faces a tougher task from barrier 10. #13 Markwin comes into this on the back of a commanding maiden win in Class 4 and looks capable of stepping up in grade for the Cody Mo yard. #9 Leslie has turned in strong late finishes in recent runs and now gets the benefit of barrier 2. Mickael Barzalona is an astute booking, and this Michael Chang-trained runner is primed fourth-up.

Race 10 - HIGHLAND REEL HANDICAP

#10 Packing Hermod had his winning streak snapped last time but lost no admirers with a runner-up finish to Green N White. That effort came on his first try at 1400m and in Class 2, and he should be primed to make amends with Joao Moreira, the 'Magic Man', taking the reins. #9 Young Champion raced too keenly over a mile last time, which may have left him without a finishing effort. The drop back in trip suits, giving him a strong chance to rebound. #4 Drombeg Banner looks set for a reasonably soft lead on paper and will ensure his rivals have to chase him down, as is his typical style. #12 Rubylot didn’t fire on his initial attempt in this grade last start, but he has been kept sharp with a nice trial and deserves another chance to prove himself.

[Kasept]

DICK POWELL ~ HKIR

Vase - 1,3,13
Sprint - 1,3,8,12
Mile - 2,1,12
Cup - 1,11,4

[ADJMK]

R6
Californiatotality
12 7/2 $4.75 17/2 20 20 18 18 13 13 11 10 8 7/2


With the size of HK pools who smacked the horse from 18 with 4 minutes to post to 7/2 ??

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