5/17-18 (PIM): 149th Preakness Weekend

[Kasept]

HI HO PIMLICO!


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3-5yo, 5f-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Irish Heartbeat 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Master of Malice 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Gift Exchange 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Beltane 12-1 2nd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Porquerolles 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Breakwater 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Desvio 15-1 WON ($79.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Chelonian 5-1 5th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Whenlovetakesover 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Mirahmadi 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Nasty Habit 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #5 Magic Express 2-1 2nd


4th: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Disco Ebo 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Late Frost 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Apple Picker 7-5 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #7 Swall 10-1 2nd


5th: MSW, F&M/3-5yo, 5f-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Rye Smile 5-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Marian Cross SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Up for It 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 The Amazing Mizzen 8-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


P4 Grid:

2: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)


6th: Chick Lang (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Petingas Twin 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Catahoula Moon 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Cats by Five 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Frost Free 2-1 WON ($5.60)


7th: Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fluffy Socks 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Blissful 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tequilera 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-2-3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x5x1 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)


8th: Maryland Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f (.20 Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Prince of Jericho 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jaxon Traveler 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Coastal Mission 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bourbon Bash 6-1 6th


9th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Crystal Quest 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Fulmineo 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #5 Speedyness 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Massif 20-1 4th


P4 Grid:

5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x1x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-5 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 5x1x2x2 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup (AACAA): 5x2x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 (3-5 in 7th)


10th: Sir Barton-R, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like 6 of these (2-5-6-7-8-10) are capable of winning..

Most Likely: #10 Imperial Gun 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Corporate Power 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Mighty Message SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Circle P 20-1 7th


11th: Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Grooms All Bizness 8-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #12 Beer Can Man 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Boat's a Rockin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Witty 9-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7-10 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-5 in 7th)


12th: Dinner Party (G3), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Beatbox 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Running Bee 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Emmanuel SCR
Super Add: #2 English Bee 15-1 7th


13th: 149th Preakness Stakes (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Hi-5)

One storyline going into this week was finding reasons to play against Muth and the assumption that Mystik Dan wouldn't get as perfect a scenario/trip as he did two weeks ago. But with the erstwhile favorite absent and the Derby winner inheriting the role of favorite, the race has become more quizzical. The most apparent outcome feels like the 3 Derby exiters and Chad Brown Preakness profiler Tuscan Gold as the win candidates. I don't have a firm opinion going in, so best price player Just Steel emerges as the key: 7 with 2-3-5-9 for me..

Revised Preakness ML

1: Mugatu 20-1
2: Uncle Heavy 20-1
3: Catching Freedom 7-2
5: Mystik Dan 8-5
6: Seize the Grey 12-1
7: Just Steel 12-1
8: Tuscan Gold 9-2
9: Imagination 3-1

Best Value: #7 Just Steel 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Mystik Dan 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Catching Freedom 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tuscan Gold 8 -1 4th


Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness DBL

FRI 13: 5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
SAT 13: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $10 = $60 (5-7 with 3-5-7)
Backup (CA): 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24 (2-3 with 2-3-7)


P5 Grid:

9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 5-9-10/SCR (A), - (B), 1-2-3 (C)
13: 5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-12 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

10: 10 (A), - (B), 2-3-5-6 (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 5-9-10/SCR (A), 1-2-3 (B), - (C)
13: 5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x6x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x3x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (CAAA): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3-5-6 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve