Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Ok. Now that the 2 stays up, really rooting for the 4 here as I’m alive to a not insignificant double payout and have the 4 in other bets.

[moses]

And. He finishes last. Oh well.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #9 Winners Laugh 5/1
Best Value: Race 8 #7 Hatch 10/1

[moses]

$296.00 wagered
$286.00 returned

Saturday picks

Race 5 - #1 Jersey Pearl 3/1
Race 8 - #2 Dancing Buck 7/2

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 #1Danzigwiththestars 6/1
Best Value: Race 11 #5 Clapton 8/1

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 #1Danzigwiththestars 6/1
Best Value: Race 11 #5 Clapton 8/1

Good luck. Hopefully we can land a few more winners. I kinda like Clapton too but I’ve sworn off betting Chad Summers horses. Hopefully he wins for you.

[moses]

$304.00 wagered
$289.50 returned

Being down a bit now, I want to take a few swings on bigger prices to try to finish up.

First bet: Race 1 - #2 Justdeny 15/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #3 Born a Gambler 8/1.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 6 - #5 Nikitas 5/1 - Not sure what to expect price wise here won’t be surprised if she takes money on the obvious switch to dirt but I think she’ll be pretty tough in here and hoping between the Mott, Cox and Pletcher entries the price is fair.

Best Value: Race 8 - #2/2B entry 8/1 - I’m looking to beat Dontmesswithtess who obviously can win but is just kind of meh to me. Guess you can say the same about this entry but I think they both kind of fit in here. I think Miscreant is a little dirtied up off the dirt effort but guessing that was just used to get a start under her. Some may also hold it against her that she broke her maiden on synth but she’s plenty bred for the turf, the stretch out and I think has maybe a touch of modest upside to improve on. Lezcano seemingly opted for Fast Kimmie who I glossed over at first but on a second inspection I thought if you just disregarded the starts for Gonzalez suddenly she’s a lightly raced 3yo who doesn’t have to get that much faster in here and was probably too close to too fast a pace on a tiring course last out.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$304.00 wagered
$289.50 returned

Being down a bit now, I want to take a few swings on bigger prices to try to finish up.

First bet: Race 1 - #2 Justdeny 15/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #3 Born a Gambler 8/1.

$312.00 wagered
$289.50 returned

Getting desperate here and didn’t get a chance to look much at the races.

Race 7 - #2 Sweetest Princess 12/1
Race 10 - #6 Gold Sweep 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Balue: Race 1 - #4 Play Free Bird 20/1 - maybe I’m a sucker for the name, maybe I’m off my rocker, perhaps both. I actually thought the turf effort two back was much better than it looked though. I almost never play this trainer but the connections here should ensure a good price. The turf effort had a disasterous start and I thought she showed some nice athleticism running into the teeth of the race before rightfully tiring late. Not sure she’s good enough but I’m tossing the two dirt efforts and taking a swing here.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #6 Be the Boss 9/2 - Interesting but tricky race and there are some intriguing options in here I just kind of think Be the Boss figures to get the right kind of trip in here. Expect him to take the lead off the turn and then just hope he can hold off the closers.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$312.00 wagered
$289.50 returned

Getting desperate here and didn’t get a chance to look much at the races.

Race 7 - #2 Sweetest Princess 12/1
Race 10 - #6 Gold Sweep 6/1

Since I whiffed in race 7. Let’s go bigger to hopefully break even. Swap out Gold Sweep and add in #2 Social Acceptance in race 9.

[theguarantee]

Freudian ran awful Giroovin was ok but got ran down by a Longshot and ultimately didn't finish as well as I thought he would. Falcone got off the duck at a big number that day and I managed to pick his other two. Hatch was a real stretch and ran like it. Winners Laugh actually ran well paying over 8 dollars to show although failed to hold me and sap off for second somehow...and did me no good for this.

Not sure what happened with Danzigwiththestars.I hated what Irad did with Clapton and thought he ran well. Not sure if he was beating the top two that day but Irad grabbed failing to secure any position and took the overland route to be kind.

Speaking of Irad, and I want to be clear I have absolutely zero issue with what he did here it wad tremendous race riding and exactly what I want my jockey to do but I thought he cost Nikitis the win in Sundays 6th boxing in Prat off the turn. In a close duel to the wire I think that was the difference, she paid $5.00 to place. In the 8th Fast Kimmie got a strange journey from Lezcano but probably wasn't nearly good enough...Miscreant actually made a nice late run but that was only good enough for fourth.

I thought about playing it a little safer on closing day to try to show a meet profit but whats the fun in that...Play Free Bird probably outran her odds but was ultimately a non factor...I thought Tyler was going to dig in and find the wire with Be the Boss which would've gotten me to the black (not to mention the pick 4, a pick 3 and a pretty decent sized double, ugh)...but Kendrick and Win for Gold proved just a bit better....

Was a strange meet overall we all know the negatives but still was a lot of good racing and had a lot of fun...from a gambling perspective for me personally it was super frustrating...I got off to a hot start and was up a good amount the first few weeks yet still missed out on several very narrow large score misses in multis...seemed every dq or non dq, missed step worked against me...the last few weeks I also stopped seeing the ball nearly as well...it happens..hope everyone did OK.

Final tally:
Wagered: $320.00
Returned: $316.70

[Dahoss]

Great job this summer guys. Was not an easy meet and you both did very well. Was fun to watch

[Kasept]

Moishe.. Guarantee.. Well done! Inspires people to dig in, work at it and be rewarded.