Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 6 - #3 Night Time, 15/1. I’m going to break one of my own rules here and take a stab at what I think is a fairly talented Dale Romans horse. Yes, he’s not good with shippers out of Kentucky but a few things about this horse — it’s generally run well at Saratoga, I think the pace is going to set up for him, Javy jumps aboard, the workout two back was lightning, and he’s going to be a HUGE price. My initial thought on this race was that I liked Today’s Flavor but I don’t like the pace scenario for him. So, let’s take a big shot here.

Second bet: Race 9 - #8 Whittington Park, 8/1. This is another play based on what I think will be a hot pace. Workouts look good for him too. Should be a good price. The expected favorite hasn’t won a race in roughly two years, does get class relief but I’m just not interested in betting him at what will be an extremely short price. I think you’ve got to look elsewhere in this one.

Sidenote: I’m extremely interested in #13 Dororthys Happiness (A.Ferraro/Perez) at 20/1 in race 7 if he draws in. A prior pick of mine from the same trainer is also on the AE list there — #14 Love That Bird (adds blinkers and gets K. Coa aboard). Mild interest in that one if he were to draw in as he didn’t run much in his debut but perhaps the blinkers do the trick.

Whittington Park is scratched.

Swap in #6 Mysterious Night (10/1) in Race 8.

[jms62]

The 3rd race was a farce... Prat stopped asking and the longer Chad horse rolls right on by.

[theguarantee]

Nothing clever after all the scratches and pressed for time today:

Best Bet: Race 11 - #8 Sweetest Princess 7/2 - Seems like a match race and hoping the public gravitates to the obvious dirt form of Ghostly Girl. Just think Sweetest is a better/improving horse who can handle dirt well enough to beat these.
Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Carl Spackler 3/1 - Hated the last trip, love the draw today, think he rolls.

[moses]

Why was Night Time 5 wide around the turn? Don’t think it mattered but had no shot going that wide.

[moses]

In this maiden race, the 8 physically looks very good but seems a bit worked up. I also liked the 3 but not loving how that horse is warming up.

Those were my top options to beat the 10 but not sure now. I may take a swing on Katie Davis’s 9 horse and box her in some exactas and trifectas.

[moses]

Well I was way off.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

In this maiden race, the 8 physically looks very good but seems a bit worked up. I also liked the 3 but not loving how that horse is warming up.

Those were my top options to beat the 10 but not sure now. I may take a swing on Katie Davis’s 9 horse and box her in some exactas and trifectas.

Think we keep an eye on the 8 next out. Wasn't asked to do much at the end when it was clear that Trust Fund was the one to beat.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Think we keep an eye on the 8 next out. Wasn't asked to do much at the end when it was clear that Trust Fund was the one to beat.

Agreed.

Posting my picks for tomorrow. Not sure how much I’ll be around.

First bet: Race 5 - #2 Chaperone 8/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #11 Richie’s Princess 7/2.