Two at Toga (2023)

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Arrest Me Red got pretty ideal trip. Maybe a bit wide. Edged out by the 2 horse. Barely held on for 2nd. Paid $3.50 to place.

$80.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Got here in pretty different ways but almost even after 10 days:

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $110.10

^Thanks guys, Luis gave Relate a great ride getting aggressive from the outside post and looked a winner every step. Sharp Play Boy failed to improve and was a bad pick. Tricky card today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Got here in pretty different ways but almost even after 10 days:

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $110.10

^Thanks guys, Luis gave Relate a great ride getting aggressive from the outside post and looked a winner every step. Sharp Play Boy failed to improve and was a bad pick. Tricky card today.

Pretty funny that we are at basically the same amount returned. I clearly need to find another 2YO that hits at 20/1.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Eyes on Target 7/2 - The chaotic nature of this field is the only reason I'm willing to go ahead and bet on Irad/Maker/Dubb...I tried to make a case for Tartini cutting back but ultimately don't think he's good enough. Similar for the rest of the field and I circled back to thinking not only is Eyes on Target a likely winner, but I think he'll actually be a slight overlay in this field.

Best Value: Race 9 - #4 Pioneering Spirit 4/1 - Simply couldn't come up with anything too clever on the card today and this is another where I think the bulky field will lead to an overlay...I love the progress this one has made of late, ability to settle, he's athletic enough to work out a nice trip and love the way he kicked home last out.

[moses]

Unexpectedly, Miss Carol Ann set the pace but could not hold on, finishing 4th. These turf routes can be hard to predict the pace on.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Unexpectedly, Miss Carol Ann set the pace but could not hold on, finishing 4th. These turf routes can be hard to predict the pace on.

Yeah I’m so confused as to how your horse was in front and mine was dead last. Makes no sense really

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah I’m so confused as to how your horse was in front and mine was dead last. Makes no sense really

Nope. No sense at all.

[moses]

Going to take a few big swings the next couple days.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 1 - #9 Love That Bird, 20/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #7 Asthros, 10/1.

Saturday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #6 Dean Delivers, 8/1.
Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Eyes on Target 7/2 - The chaotic nature of this field is the only reason I'm willing to go ahead and bet on Irad/Maker/Dubb...I tried to make a case for Tartini cutting back but ultimately don't think he's good enough. Similar for the rest of the field and I circled back to thinking not only is Eyes on Target a likely winner, but I think he'll actually be a slight overlay in this field.

Best Value: Race 9 - #4 Pioneering Spirit 4/1 - Simply couldn't come up with anything too clever on the card today and this is another where I think the bulky field will lead to an overlay...I love the progress this one has made of late, ability to settle, he's athletic enough to work out a nice trip and love the way he kicked home last out.

Eyes on Target was tons the best but DQ'd only cost me a couple grand in multis...Pioneering Spirit was also tons the best...both horses were bet off the board though.

Wagered: $88.00
Returned: $120.90

Interesting card today but looks pretty tough.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Eyes on Target was tons the best but DQ'd only cost me a couple grand in multis...Pioneering Spirit was also tons the best...both horses were bet off the board though.

Wagered: $88.00
Returned: $120.90

Interesting card today but looks pretty tough.

Nice call on Pioneering Spirit. I think with more eyes on horse racing, they almost had to DQ Irad that race. It was a dangerous move and could have led to a catastrophic injury to horse or rider. That horse was definitely best though.

You now take the lead with Pioneering Spirit. I’m stuck at:

$88.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 - #8 Harry Hood 3/1 - Not going to extract any type of great value with this pick but I struggled a bit with today's card and if we get the 3/1 on this guy who has had a series of tough trips in his brief career. I thought the last was pretty good and I like that Chad immediately gets aggressive and spots this one at the right class level.

Best Value: Race 7 - #4 Little Maddy Brown 30/1 - Going off the reservation with this one. Has a right to like the turf and is a hard knocking type, likely too cheap but I wasn't particularly scared of anyone in here. The only previous turf race he had absolutely no chance in a decent field at Saratoga last year going a route. Showed speed and faded badly in the stretch. Again, he's probably badly outclassed today but this is a much more reasonable spot for him.