Pick 1 of these horses who you’re confident won’t win the Derby

[moses]

Of these 5, who are you most certain won’t win the Derby?

Forte
Practical Move
Derma Sotogake
Tapit Trice
Two Phil’s

[moses]

As of right now, Derma Sotogake has the most votes. I absolutely love that horse and he’s my pick. I didn’t learn my lesson from Mendelssohn. I also like Two Phil’s a lot. I may use only those two in my horizontal wagers.

I can’t really knock Forte or Practical Move too much but I think PM has a number of reasons to doubt him. Forte has “done nothing wrong” but there’s the possibility that he’s peaked. It’s hard to know how good the horses he beat in Florida were. They’ll probably both get bet a decent amount so that’s why I’ve looked elsewhere.

Tapit Trice has me confused because his figures are all headed in the right direction and it seems like he could very well run his best at the right moment — but watching him it looks like it is a struggle to get him to run, as if he’s not really interested in racing. Does anyone else see that? That worries me in a 20 horse race where so much can go wrong.

[Dahoss]

I picked Derma Sotogake in your poll. It just seems like he has a lot of history to overcome and even though it’s be really cool to see Mind Your Biscuits be the sire of a Derby winner I don’t see it.

My top pick is probably going to be Two Phil’s. I bet him in two separate future bets so I can just root him in the race.

My crazy idea for the exacta and triple is Sun Thunder. I think his form is dirtied up a bit by circumstances beyond his control. He ran very well in the Risen Star. Was behind the slow pace in the La. Derby and got going too late. Florent gave him a no shot ride last time. He wasn’t beating the top two anyway but he should have been third. He’s shown that on his best day he’s competitive here and at what should be a huge price I’m going to try and get him somewhere in there.

[moses]

I don’t think Sun Thunder hitting the trifecta is crazy. Not sure about the exacta…but why not?

I’m just unsure of the pace. It’ll be fast but how fast? I could see a horse like Derma Sotogake inheriting the lead or sitting right off of it (actually love the 17 post as he’s outside of pretty much all the major speed there) and timing his move.

My plan currently is to have Derma Sotogake and Two Phil’s on top in my pick 5 and my trifecta bets. Trying to figure out the other horses still. I might throw Sun Thunder in. I kind of like Skinner but seems lots of people like him.

[MichiganMattA]

I voted Tapit Trice. Watching his races it’s obvious he doesn’t like the kickback at all. My opinion is that’s why Saez made the middle move in the Bluegrass. The draw did him no favors, he will be taking dirt and backing out in the early stages.

I will be keying Rocket Can in all 3 spots in the trifecta. His draw matches his style and should have a clear shot at the leaders when the time comes. He was trending the right direction in Florida then threw a dud in Arkansas which I’m willing to forgive at a fat price.