Strong Pretender Excuses Thread

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

At this point he has as good of a claim on that spot as anybody. Behind Invasor, Premium Tap, and Discreet Cat it is a pretty wide open division. He ran a close third while sitting fairly close to a very fast first six furlongs. I suppose I could move Lava Man ahead of him but he will likely stick to the turf this year which moves him down on a list of older routing dirt males. Here was the list from a couple days ago for anyone who cares:

1. Invasor
2. Premium Tap
3. Discreet Cat
4. Sweetnorthernsaint
5. Lava Man
6. Sun King
7. Jazil
8. Brother Derek
9. Lawyer Ron
10. Magna Graduate


Honorable mention: Steppenwolfer, Corinthian

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

...Corinthian

This horse probably isn't in the top 100.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

This horse probably isn't in the top 100.

It is quite possible that he won't be. I put him and Steppenwolfer as honorable mention since they are two of my favorite horses in training but I'm realistic enough about them to not put them in my top ten.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This is all so true.

I love everything from reading about bloodlines, learning of great champions and pick 3's and 4's, but most of all I love the horses running. Being this sort of fan isn't the easiest thing on a forum or following the sport due to the failure of management to recognize that there are fans as well as people who bet, own or breed thoroughbreds. The fan is the often forgot element in this because they are not supporting the sport heavily with their betting dollar or ownership, but they are an important part of the community of racing. If the horse isn't retired prematurily, I'm told I can't think my favorite race was the Belmont Stakes. I may have been born in 1978, but it doesn't mean I don't know who Secretariat, Dr. Fager and Buckpasser were and how good they were. The difference is, horses like Jazil, Memorette, Bernardini and Saint Liam ran when I was watching...they bring me out to the track. So I guess what I'm really trying to say is; I understand your message and as usual it's a good one. Be thankful for what we have.

I agree completely, Sightseek.

Although I do bet, that's just one part of the game, and not the best part. I also love the big things about this game -- the excitement, the grandeur, the history. And I love the little things, like the smell of the dirt when I'm leaning on the rail watching the first race post parade on a perfect summer day. But most of all, I love the horses.

I can't say what it is exactly that affects me so. I see one throw a wild eye, or give a thundering snort, and I'm struck by both their fragility and power. Personally, I would never call a horse -- any horse -- a goat. Maybe it's because I'm an outsider, not around racing every day, and not yet become cynical of the people or inured to the sight of the animals. Win or lose, I think they're magnificent.

On the other hand, I don't condemn people because they sometimes express themselves in blunt terms. That's part of what makes this site interesting, and free speech is part of what makes this country great. (Having said that, I recognize that this site is not really a public forum, although Steve allows the public to participate, and that Steve has every right to control the content). Also, everybody goes for the cheap laugh sometimes, and what they say isn't necessarily what they really feel.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Is second not in the money?

Oops, my bad...

Too much alcohol will do that to me.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Actually looks like Strong Contender might have had a valid excuse.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/81736.html

[Scav]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

If you call being 3W the whole race, making a good middle move, in a race with a fast time, where the horse isn't 100% cranked an excuse, then here it is.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're not buying it? He did break awful...

These trainers always have excuses and if they don't then the fans make some up for them. If the excuse leads to more money bet on him in the Donn then it works for me. I think he is about a 100 Beyer horse which is nothing to be embarassed about and he ran right about a 100 if you use the 111 the race should have got rather than the 104 they inexplicably came up with.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am referring to Strong Contender.....


It is well worth watching the replay of his trip. His trip was lousy and whether or not he had a shot going into the race he certainly had none given his trip.

I put little to no stock in what Donna Ward said after the race, but he gets shut off about 100 yards into the race and completely loses any decent position. To me this is the biggest trouble many horses have in races....something happens early in the race that causes them to be at a tactical disadvantage through no fault of their own. This is what happened to Sweetnorthernsaint in the Derby ( in a somewhat more extreme example ) and this is what happened to Strong Contender Saturday.

After getting shut off back to last he finally pecked his way to the two path and finally the rail as the field went into the turn. Unless the rail is golden, and there is a far bigger argument that it was NOT the place to be, this is not a good spot to commence a rally. Finally when they came into the stretch he had to extracate himself and was forced to continue to go very wide in order to get outside Rehoboth. I doubt Prado was overly concerned at this point because he obviously wasn't having an impact on the race.

It's also worth noting that nobody gained any significant ground in the race as the first three finishers were up close and among the top four basically the whole way. Thus, all in all, Strong Contender had an impossible trip and did reasonably well to run fifth. Whether or not this will move him up enough to be competitive for the Donn remains to be seen as even off his best races he would need to step up his game to beat either Premium Tap or Invasor should they show.

Look, he's a talented horse, probably not as talented as some think, and certainly not trained by someone I have a great deal of faith in. I am not inclined, at least at this point, to be overly optimistic about his chances in a month but there is no doubt to any unbiased observer that his trip on Saturday was not good and he ran fairly well all things considered.

[Scav]

One thing that I feel needs to be stressed is that this time of year, most GOOD horses are cranked yet because of all the opportunities they have throughout the year. Playing horses like SNS and Strong Contender this weekend were definitely risky because like either of them care about a 100k G3 race when they are pointing toward $1mil races later on. It was a perfect spot for both of them to get a little competition and fitness for when it really counts.

I think some people are expecting trainers to go to the media with a news release telling gamblers NOT TO PLAY THEIR HORSE. They do the best they can with warning the public, like Trombetta and Ward did, but they can't just say not to play their horse because if the horse goes and wins, they will get crapped on.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

One thing that I feel needs to be stressed is that this time of year, most GOOD horses are cranked yet because of all the opportunities they have throughout the year. Playing horses like SNS and Strong Contender this weekend were definitely risky because like either of them care about a 100k G3 race when they are pointing toward $1mil races later on. It was a perfect spot for both of them to get a little competition and fitness for when it really counts.

I think some people are expecting trainers to go to the media with a news release telling gamblers NOT TO PLAY THEIR HORSE. They do the best they can with warning the public, like Trombetta and Ward did, but they can't just say not to play their horse because if the horse goes and wins, they will get crapped on.

I agree. Someone called ATRAB tonight and griped about Kiaran saying after the race Friday that Jazil wasn't cranked up. No kidding? Geez, and here I thought he would have been pointing for that race. Figuring out trainer intention, especially with layoff horses, and even moreso with GOOD horses, is all part of playing the horses. Those that do this well have a better chance to win.

Both Ward and Trombetta said going into the race they hardly expected their horse's best efforts. One would hope not.

[Danzig]

hey, we all know strong contender could come back and win his next. now, if he keeps running races like his last, then yes, call him overrated or a goat, etc etc. one race doesn't tell the tale. sometimes a couple doesn't. there were thousands of horses between colin and personal ensign. there will be thousands more before the next perfect horse comes along. meantime, we'll just have to settle for mere mortals.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

hey, we all know strong contender could come back and win his next. now, if he keeps running races like his last, then yes, call him overrated or a goat, etc etc. one race doesn't tell the tale. sometimes a couple doesn't. there were thousands of horses between colin and personal ensign. there will be thousands more before the next perfect horse comes along. meantime, we'll just have to settle for mere mortals.

The point is, however, that he didn't run badly at all Saturday if you carefully watch the replay....especially the head-on. A clean trip, with a little improvement, will give him a very good chance to be competitive against Saturday's group in the future.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree. Someone called ATRAB tonight and griped about Kiaran saying after the race Friday that Jazil wasn't cranked up. No kidding? Geez, and here I thought he would have been pointing for that race. Figuring out trainer intention, especially with layoff horses, and even moreso with GOOD horses, is all part of playing the horses. Those that do this well have a better chance to win.

Both Ward and Trombetta said going into the race they hardly expected their horse's best efforts. One would hope not.

birdstone



remember that race he ran on a sealed track? everyone said beforehand that he should win regardless..that he was the class of the field, etc.
we all know how that turned out. we also know who went on to rain on smartys parade and then win the travers.

now, not a prime example to give according to what you just put above, but a good example of things not turning out as they should one time, but then redemption later...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The point is, however, that he didn't run badly at all Saturday if you carefully watch the replay....especially the head-on. A clean trip, with a little improvement, will give him a very good chance to be competitive against Saturday's group in the future.

right

some horses run well off a layoff, some don't. tough crowd here to say after one race what type of horse he is....or jazil for that matter.
i mean, come on, did anyone really and truly think jaz would win that race?! well....i guess according to the odds, they did. a fool and his money

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He ran a monster race no doubt. When I saw Dominguez pumping around the turn I thought he was done, and he battled all the way tp the wire. But his trip was pretty ideal. He sat second just off the 99-1 pace setter and had first run on everyone. I don't doubt at all that he wasn't cranked and respect Trombetta as a trainer, but if I could get his trip everytime on a horse I bet I would be happy.

Watch the head on again DaHoss. He was more like 5w on the backstretch becuase the 2 was about 2-3 paths off the rail, while Chaitian got a great trip sitting about 2w the whole race. Chaitan beat him by about 1.25 lengths, and SNS finished up very strong. SNS is not a one turn horse, he is a two turn speed horse that rates REAL well. I am actually pretty surprised by the amount that Ramon gets into him. I would much rather have Kent on him in the Sunshine Millions, but I doubt that is going to happen.

I am actually worried that he ran TOO HUGE in this race and it could have knocked him out a little bit for the Sunshine Millions. His TG number is going to be monsterous. I am guessing it might be better then Chaitan's

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree. Someone called ATRAB tonight and griped about Kiaran saying after the race Friday that Jazil wasn't cranked up. No kidding? Geez, and here I thought he would have been pointing for that race. Figuring out trainer intention, especially with layoff horses, and even moreso with GOOD horses, is all part of playing the horses. Those that do this well have a better chance to win.

Both Ward and Trombetta said going into the race they hardly expected their horse's best efforts. One would hope not.

I actually think it is easier with GOOD horses, rather then normal claiming horses.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

Watch the head on again DaHoss. He was more like 5w on the backstretch becuase the 2 was about 2-3 paths off the rail, while Chaitian got a great trip sitting about 2w the whole race. Chaitan beat him by about 1.25 lengths, and SNS finished up very strong. SNS is not a one turn horse, he is a two turn speed horse that rates REAL well. I am actually pretty surprised by the amount that Ramon gets into him. I would much rather have Kent on him in the Sunshine Millions, but I doubt that is going to happen.

I am actually worried that he ran TOO HUGE in this race and it could have knocked him out a little bit for the Sunshine Millions. His TG number is going to be monsterous. I am guessing it might be better then Chaitan's

Seriously?

[Danzig]

i can think of a horse i'd rather see kent riding.....

you put in a quarter and the ride lasts about 30 seconds...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Seriously?

Yes, he is riding well so far at Gulfstream.....As I have said about Kent, he has balls the size of basketballs. That I at least respect and for every hole that he gets shut out of, he gets through a couple that produce good winners. At least he tries those holes (many wouldn't even try and would rather stay 6w and run 5th on the best horse), and for that I trust my money on him