Holiday Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I read the book and have known people who make figures in some cases for 20-plus years. I have a functional understanding of the process mostly thru being around people that are experts. I never bash them, yet I find them interesting to discuss because on complex days, there is a bit of artistry in the methodology, and the artistry, and I use that word respectfully, is where the expertise lies, not in the simple math process.

Are you ok with that? I mean, I guess we have to be but does the artistry bother you at all? It sometimes feels to me more like manipulation. I get the whole idea behind projections and norms and what makes sense. But to me, the beauty of racing is that you never know what you may see or get from race to race. You may or may not know owner/trainer intentions for a horse in a given race. By that I mean, and this is admittedly an older concept than a current one given how horses are campaigned today, but I came up at a time when guys like Whittingham would use races instead of works to get their horses into the best shape to win their main targets. Preps were just that. So you'd see one of his horses show up and run and trying to assign a figure would be very difficult cause you couldn't just point to his norm and say what a figure should be. Or take a race like the Derby or the Belmont. How can we know what the norms are for the runners in those races when none of them have ever run under the race conditions?

When I look at a situation like the Golden Rod/KJC day, it frustrates me because, while I'm nowhere close to any expert, I have watched races for almost 40 years and I'd like to think that I've picked up some things even if by accident. She ran the faster race that day but without proof, they are telling me that the track changed and no, his race was faster. It just makes me wonder what the reasoning is. I guess in the end, it's just another way to try to take advantage of the other players if you feel like you have better information.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Are you ok with that? I mean, I guess we have to be but does the artistry bother you at all? It sometimes feels to me more like manipulation. I get the whole idea behind projections and norms and what makes sense. But to me, the beauty of racing is that you never know what you may see or get from race to race. You may or may not know owner/trainer intentions for a horse in a given race. By that I mean, and this is admittedly an older concept than a current one given how horses are campaigned today, but I came up at a time when guys like Whittingham would use races instead of works to get their horses into the best shape to win their main targets. Preps were just that. So you'd see one of his horses show up and run and trying to assign a figure would be very difficult cause you couldn't just point to his norm and say what a figure should be. Or take a race like the Derby or the Belmont. How can we know what the norms are for the runners in those races when none of them have ever run under the race conditions?




When I look at a situation like the Golden Rod/KJC day, it frustrates me because, while I'm nowhere close to any expert, I have watched races for almost 40 years and I'd like to think that I've picked up some things even if by accident. She ran the faster race that day but without proof, they are telling me that the track changed and no, his race was faster. It just makes me wonder what the reasoning is. I guess in the end, it's just another way to try to take advantage of the other players if you feel like you have better information.

She didn't win by 19l. If she had, the fig makers would have a different take. She won by a few lengths, which means the other fillies also ran faster than the boys. It's not just her that makes a fig; I think you must know that. BTW I don't get why Amoss believes she is all that and a bag of chips. Perhaps he has been hanging out with Vic Generational Talent Stauffer? lol

It doesn't bother me because the people behind the figures, be it TG, Ragz, TF, or BSF, are trying to get it right. They aren't trying to manipulate or deceive. CJ decided he couldn't live with the BS timing problems because he respected his work and the player too much, so he became the unofficial official time checker. Why would a guy spend hours verifying times if it wasn't his goal to be as accurate as possible? Why would Beyer consult with other respected fig makers within and outside his organization if he wasn't trying to get it right? Nobody is perfect. It's a complex discipline; the tracks change, the weather changes, biases come and go timing malfunctions, and or gets reported wrong. A million things make it imperfect. Some of the time, everything falls in line. Other times you have to cut races loose; it's all part and parcel.

[Dahoss]

Time to hang it up Freddy. You’ll never make a more honest, succinct and accurate post ever again.