Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

I haven’t had time to post these past couple days. I’m just gonna call it quits for the meet. Oddly, I’m up significantly (relative to me) for the meet so far but have just been awful with the best bet/best value plays.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $204.00
Total Returned: $172.20

Steelersfanforlife was a bad pick, was stretching to find a price I guess. Warrior Johnny buried that field but wasn't near the 9/2 morning line hoped for.

Friday, August 19th

Best Bet - Race 10 #4 No Nay Hudson 4/1
Oxymore may prove tough in here and Appraise looks like no slouch, I just have to bet No Nay off that August 7th turf work. Thought he looked awesome fending off the charge of Asymmetric. I'm not exactly sure why Wesley seemed intent in keeping this one on the dirt given the breeding. The mare improved immediately when moved to the turf and hoping (will need) a similar improvement today. Obviously this one tipped his hand of talent at Keeneland, kind of odd that they didn't send to Ascot, I have no idea why not or if there is a story there...at any rate, if this one is as good of a turf sprinter as I expect today is the day to get some decent value.

Best Value - Race 5 #1 Nicholas James 9/2
Not going to get as cute as yesterday with a longshot since I just didn't come up with any on this card I truly believe in. This one has been oddly spotted in my opinion. The 6.5F dirt sprint back in June matches up pretty well with the rest of these however. Not sure why he didn't show more speed last out but breaking from the rail and getting an extra furlong I would expect Jose to put this one on the lead and hope he forgets to stop today.

[theguarantee]

No Nay Hudson looked a winner turning for home but was turned away. Nicholas James was awful.

Best Bet - Race 8 #3 Emminent Victor
Loved the turn of foot/aggressive move in the last and think this one is full of upside. Think Prat will get the jump on the Euro and hopefully can sprint to the wire first.

Best Value - Race 9 #8 Lady Edith
Was flying home in that ridiculously run race last time and I think Miss J MacKay will take all the action given the more obvious trip and Irad…think they both ran equally as well and both have big shots today but one will be a much bigger price. Really fun race

[theguarantee]

Was traveling Sunday and thought I'd have a chance to post but got tied up...don't have much time for thoughts today either..

Wednesday, 8/24:

Best Bet - Race 7 #5 Proven Hope 5/1
Best Value - Race 10 #9 Solib

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 8/25

Best Bet - Race 9 #3 Skims 9/2
I really like her in here today. While there are some progressive types in here that may be ready to go onto bigger and better things, she's just simply been facing much tougher in her last few. Her late kick was a little disappointing last out but I think Rosario kind of let up knowing the race was over. It wasn't the worst trip ever but I think subtly things just did not work out never really saving any ground, being forced wide and a couple nice ones getting the jump on her. Love that she's drawn further inside today and thin she's going to be really tough to beat in here.

Best Value - Race 6 #3 Queen Bourbon 6/1
I've always had a bit of a thing for this one, probably overrating her but I like these longer distances and have to give her a shot today off that last race. I've mentioned it before but I always like these types that chase wide on the turf, make a nice run off the turn and don't quite give up but get caught from the closers. Jose managed to take her from a slow break at the rail to lose ground on all 3 turns, made the premature early move that never works in turf races and all things considered she hung in there pretty well.