Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

Saturday, 8/13
Best Bet - Race 5 #1 Tosconova Beauty 7/2
I am usually very against playing horses shipping in from Finger Lakes, they've popped a few times the last couple years but historically I think it's just such a bad level/speed favoring track that it doesn't translate. That said I think this one actually has the right style and simply seems faster than the rest of these. I like the rail draw in that it simplifies things for Alvarado, just needs to break on out of there any try to take them all the way.

Best Value - Race 11 #8 Strike Price 8/1
Seems like you could throw a blanket over this field so in a race pretty devoid of speed at least Strike Price has some tactical ability. Not sure why the barn change but does come in off a series of drills for Morey who has struggled here but is still very dangerous. Would like to see Trevor get aggressive, go to the front and see if he can hold off several plodders who take a long time to wind up and could be given the slip in my opinion.

[moses]

I may just give up on this. My picks have been awful.

Best bet: Race 1 - #10 Three Zero 8/1 ML

Best value: Race 5 - #3 She’s Stormy 10/1 ML

[theguarantee]

Tosconova Beauty ran OK but ultimately just wasn't good enough. Strike Price got a totally different trip than I envisioned but was brutal anyway so not sure it mattered.

Total Wagered: $180
Total Returned: $155.70

Best Bet - Race 3: #3 Shadolamo 6/1
I think is intriguing in here today getting back to what she does best in my opinion and the form is a bit muddied up.

Best Value - Race 5 #4 Glitter Up 8/1
Not exactly sure why four of her five starts have come on the dirt, especially given the strong performance in the lone turf try but hoping that leads to a little better value today. Not entirely sure what kind of trip she needs in here but trust Dylan to typically get the most out of his horses.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $188
Total Returned: $160.80

Best Bet - Race 6 #3 Seal Beach 5/1
Not usually my favorite type with lots of big names in the running lines now trying something new. Maker had a more ambitious placement originally but I think re-routing here was a much better decision. Some turf ped from the dam and feels like this isn't one where they are out of options on the dirt and just trying something...given the Churchill situation and all today feels like the right spot to take a try on the green.

Best Value - Race 10 #4 Dixie Cannon 8/1
Bit of a total stab with Brittany Russell off the layoff. Cafe Fleur can win but feels like one you want to take on. The other logicals like the 5,7 and 9 aren't exactly win machines. Kind of debated taking a shot with the 4 or 10 and just thought the 4 would offer a better price today.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $196
Total Returned: $160.80

Seal Beach did zero running while Dixie Cannon got loose on the lead setting easy fractions and was no match late. Onto Thursday, 8/18

Best Bet - Race 8 #5 Warrior Johny 9/2
Probably wasn't beating much in the maiden breaker two back but it was quite the performance. I always look for improvement second time this route of ground so think with a better trip in here today can win and might be a decent price with some higher profile connections likely to take money in here.

Best Value - Race 7 #1 Steelersfanforlife 12/1
Just 2 for 30 lifetime - isn't exactly a ton of horse...that said I don't necessarily trust any of the logicals in here and has been at least back to putting in his run since the freshening. Second chance going this short and like the rail draw given his lack of any speed at all, Luzzi should save all the ground and try to make one run. Should be a nice price in with a bit of a shot today.

[moses]

I haven’t had time to post these past couple days. I’m just gonna call it quits for the meet. Oddly, I’m up significantly (relative to me) for the meet so far but have just been awful with the best bet/best value plays.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $204.00
Total Returned: $172.20

Steelersfanforlife was a bad pick, was stretching to find a price I guess. Warrior Johnny buried that field but wasn't near the 9/2 morning line hoped for.

Friday, August 19th

Best Bet - Race 10 #4 No Nay Hudson 4/1
Oxymore may prove tough in here and Appraise looks like no slouch, I just have to bet No Nay off that August 7th turf work. Thought he looked awesome fending off the charge of Asymmetric. I'm not exactly sure why Wesley seemed intent in keeping this one on the dirt given the breeding. The mare improved immediately when moved to the turf and hoping (will need) a similar improvement today. Obviously this one tipped his hand of talent at Keeneland, kind of odd that they didn't send to Ascot, I have no idea why not or if there is a story there...at any rate, if this one is as good of a turf sprinter as I expect today is the day to get some decent value.

Best Value - Race 5 #1 Nicholas James 9/2
Not going to get as cute as yesterday with a longshot since I just didn't come up with any on this card I truly believe in. This one has been oddly spotted in my opinion. The 6.5F dirt sprint back in June matches up pretty well with the rest of these however. Not sure why he didn't show more speed last out but breaking from the rail and getting an extra furlong I would expect Jose to put this one on the lead and hope he forgets to stop today.