Two at Toga (2022)

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Shoot. Still, I can’t imagine under 6/1 with the two ML favorites. I guess we’ll see.

That horse stands out on form and everyone likes it. Usually that’s the kiss of death lol. I think the 6 could be live and is a nice prices. Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

That horse stands out on form and everyone likes it. Usually that’s the kiss of death lol. I think the 6 could be live and is a nice prices. Good luck.

Thanks. And yea, you’re right. I hate being on a horse that everyone loves.

[theguarantee]

Wednesday, 8/3

Wagered: $112.00
Returned: $109.70


Best Bet - Race 5: 1 Java Buzz 9/5 - On a day I don't really love the card I am wondering if this horse will be all of 9/5 with the love everyone seems to have for the 4...I just think Java Buzz is way the horse to beat in here. Would not be a maiden in my opinion if not for the race riding last out. Always breaks poorly but think can win today in spite of it and if he does break today I think he's going to be a relatively likely winner. I also think the 7 two back was probably stretching it as the debut at this trip was good.

Best Value - Race 7: 2 Daddy Knows 6/1 - Will likely have to deal with Bar Fourteen early but I'm hoping Manny gives an aggressive ride and I think can be dangerous in here. Clearly, Tiergan is the one to beat but I don't know that I fully trust this horse at a short price today.

[moses]

He went off at 9/2 but I didn’t end up betting him since he sat at 7/2 and really was expecting 6/1 or better on that horse.

[moses]

Triumphant return was terrible, as was Movie Moxy (but at least I got big odds on her). I guess I shouldn't have switched off of Tiergan who won easily.

After Day 15.
Total wagered: $120.00
Total returned: $93.30

Best bet: Race 7 - #8 Hit the Woah 6/1 ML, Clement/I.Ortiz. The first thing I'll note is that I expect a lot of early speed in this one with Spicy Marg, Athwaq, and Mail Order running up front. Of those horses, I think Mail Order has the best chance to win this...but I'm looking at the horses who will be running late. Interestingly, Irad opts to stay aboard Hit the Woah who ran down lesser competition than this in her last start back in February at Gulfstream. I generally don't like betting turf horses from Gulfstream. I'm never quite sure if their performance will translate to a better turf course. But...this one interests me. From the very beginning, I think Clement liked this horse. Once she broke her maiden, he placed her in three consecutive stakes races and she actually ran better on the turf than in her lone dirt stakes race. Back in February, I was impressed with how she made a move once urged by Irad and then really kicked it into gear once he went to the whip. She's talented, she's not outclassed by this group imo, she should get some pace to run at, and she's got one of the best jockeys out there to try to time her move to run them down.

Best value: Race 8 - #3 Chess Chief 15/1 ML, Stewart/Gutierrez. This is a bit of a shot in the dark...but Chess Chief was wide throughout in his last race and I'm going to chalk it up to him just needing a race. Following that one, he put in a great workout at Churchill then shipped to Saratoga and has put in two pretty nice works. Prior to his last start, he was facing tougher competition than he'll face here and I'm hoping the time off will have done him some good. Art Collector is obviously much the horse to beat in here...but he's returning from his disappointing performance in the Saudi Cup and I'm not crazy about why he was put on turf for a couple workouts. Masqueparade is another horse who I've always liked but I'm not sure how much better he's gotten from his 3YO year. Instead, I'm going to hope Chess Chief can recapture some of his prior form and surprise them here. Although Reylu has ridden him to 15 length losses in his last 3 races, I do like that Dallas Stewart keeps him aboard as he did notch a nice win against solid competition 4 back in his win in the Tenacious Stakes.

These are both big swings in a way...but I feel the favorites are vulnerable in both cases and I'm really not sure how good the logical alternatives (Mystic Night and Masqueparade) are in the Alydar.

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 8/4
Wagered: $120.00
Returned: $112.60

Java Buzz was hardly my worst pick in terms of the score for the meet but was truly a bad one in any reasonable sense. Took more money than I expected, actually broke, had a perfect trip and was just no match for Sosua Summer who I didn't respect in there at all. Daddy Knows ran awkwardly throughout and was a very distant third.

Best Bet - Race 7: 2 Secret Time 6/1 - Perhaps the distance will get her beat but I just really liked the way she finished going super wide at Belmont. Clearly a totally different beast today but I expect a hot pace with Spicy Marg and hoping Flavian has her rolling late.

Best Value - Race 9: 8 Forty Under 12/1 - Maybe a bit of a whacky pick but I just wanted to take a shot in this race where I don't really love any of the horses who figure to be single digit odds. Forty Under isn't consistent at all but he can fire a pretty nice one now and again. Kentarmaci has been sneaky, think the track, surface and distance all fit. Taking a shot on a day once again where not a ton jumped off the page at me.

Good luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Triumphant return was terrible, as was Movie Moxy (but at least I got big odds on her). I guess I shouldn't have switched off of Tiergan who won easily.

After Day 15.
Total wagered: $120.00
Total returned: $93.30

Best bet: Race 7 - #8 Hit the Woah 6/1 ML, Clement/I.Ortiz. The first thing I'll note is that I expect a lot of early speed in this one with Spicy Marg, Athwaq, and Mail Order running up front. Of those horses, I think Mail Order has the best chance to win this...but I'm looking at the horses who will be running late. Interestingly, Irad opts to stay aboard Hit the Woah who ran down lesser competition than this in her last start back in February at Gulfstream. I generally don't like betting turf horses from Gulfstream. I'm never quite sure if their performance will translate to a better turf course. But...this one interests me. From the very beginning, I think Clement liked this horse. Once she broke her maiden, he placed her in three consecutive stakes races and she actually ran better on the turf than in her lone dirt stakes race. Back in February, I was impressed with how she made a move once urged by Irad and then really kicked it into gear once he went to the whip. She's talented, she's not outclassed by this group imo, she should get some pace to run at, and she's got one of the best jockeys out there to try to time her move to run them down.

Best value: Race 8 - #3 Chess Chief 15/1 ML, Stewart/Gutierrez. This is a bit of a shot in the dark...but Chess Chief was wide throughout in his last race and I'm going to chalk it up to him just needing a race. Following that one, he put in a great workout at Churchill then shipped to Saratoga and has put in two pretty nice works. Prior to his last start, he was facing tougher competition than he'll face here and I'm hoping the time off will have done him some good. Art Collector is obviously much the horse to beat in here...but he's returning from his disappointing performance in the Saudi Cup and I'm not crazy about why he was put on turf for a couple workouts. Masqueparade is another horse who I've always liked but I'm not sure how much better he's gotten from his 3YO year. Instead, I'm going to hope Chess Chief can recapture some of his prior form and surprise them here. Although Reylu has ridden him to 15 length losses in his last 3 races, I do like that Dallas Stewart keeps him aboard as he did notch a nice win against solid competition 4 back in his win in the Tenacious Stakes.

These are both big swings in a way...but I feel the favorites are vulnerable in both cases and I'm really not sure how good the logical alternatives (Mystic Night and Masqueparade) are in the Alydar.

Both were big swings and although they ran alright, finishing 3rd, neither really ever had a chance to win. Notably, Chess Chief staying up for 3rd resulted in a $0.50 trifecta payout of $24 and some change, which I thought was decent considering the heavy favorite and co-2nd choice ran 1st and 2nd. This leaves me a bit desperate to land on a good horse today and I do think there are a few races where there should be some value.

After Day 16.
Total wagered: $128.00
Total returned: $93.30

Friday, August 5.

Best bet: Race 8- #8 Celestial City 6/1 ML, McGaughey/Castellano. Again, I'm looking extra closely at any Javy horses and this one is consistent and improving. Pace is a question here as Dowagiac Chief scratches out and you've got to wonder who provides pace pressure on the 1 horse. Wow What a Summer? Wit? It's not totally clear. But I fully expect this one to take another step forward here and run a very strong race.

Best value: Race 5 - #7 Good Measure 8/1 ML, Motion/Velazquez. I'll start here by acknowledging that I'm very against the likely favorites in this race. Shad Nation will likely go off the favorite and while the horse has run OK on turf, I don't think she has run well enough to justify the price she'll be, especially considering this will be her first bout against older horses and it's at a distance she's never run before. Sure, she's not running in a stakes race this time...but no thanks, I'll let her beat me. The other two horses likely to generate some interest are Rheaume and Hail To. Hail To is also a 3YO (who has faced older but hasn't beaten them) and I'm not particularly impressed with the quality of the horses from her last race. Rheaume was also in that race. I'm looking elsewhere. I've landed on Good Measure who I think ran pretty well on turf WAY BACK in November of last year but has been on dirt since then. Half-sibling to two stakes winners at route distances (one on turf) so I'm not expecting her to have any issues with the distance and I also don't expect her to generate too much interest so she should be a nice price.

[theguarantee]

Strapped for time today --

Best Bet - Race 8: 7 Double Clutch 5/1 - I'm a fan of this horses talent, needs to bounce back a bit today but I think is plenty capable.

Best Value - Race 10: 5 Roz 10/1 - A bit of a stretch beating these but best efforts have been sprinting and I think connections maybe were fooled into thinking wants longer in many spots whereas today this elongated sprint will hit right between the eyes. At the least I'd try getting into bottom rungs of verticals.

Good luck.