Saratoga Two a Day

[Dahoss]

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

I had Sweet Fanny Lu circled as soon as I looked at the card. Still time for you to switch as you’re screwed now!

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

I wasn't crazy about this card. A few horses in the 4/1 to 8/1 range but I usually like to try to make a case for bigger shots than that and didn't really see many. And of course my "value" horse just went off at 7/2, looked slow out of the gate, and never had a chance to compete for the win. So already off to a good start.

I'm going to take a closer look at your longshot though. Didn't really give that horse much thought when I looked over the race.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 5
Another day I had a hard time deciding which horses to pick.

Best bet: Race 4- #2 Sweet Franny Lu
Almost everyone I respect likes Instinctive in here and I totally get why. She clipped heels early and never really got going after that. her prior races on the grass were strong and she will likely be a deserving favorite. I'm more interested in another horse out of the same race, Sweet Franny Lu. She had the misfortune of running into a horse who was pulling up in front of her, eliminating all chance. Two back, she successfully rated and won going away, showing a new dimension. She's drawn well inside and should get first run. Hopefully Jose Gomez can work out a trip for her.

Longshot: Race 10- #7 Big Woo
Complete guess in here with a horse who was eased in his debut. A few things to consider....he took money that day. Was 5-1 in a field of 9 at Keeneland. Has since been gelded and returns with lasix. Slight drop but nothing crazy. The biggest thing for me is the 46 and change work over the Churchill turf in June. That sticks out to me and Jose Ortiz gets on board. I've taken worst stabs in my life.

Weird day. Sweet Franny Lu was shuffled back, 4 riders yanked their mounts back, Jose Gomez made a silly middle move and the horse that was left alone went wire to wire. Fun stuff.

Big Woo was 15-1 ML, somehow went off at 2-1 and finished 7th. The 2-1 ML favorite somehow went off at 5-1 and wired the field.

Meet totals
$40 wagered
$64.80 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

Whoops. Didn't realize that you saw this already. Definitely would have been nice to have more notice.

[jms62]

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

So now it is an ALL Race even though by RULE it shouldn't be. Yeah it sucked that they pulled it off late and didn't give anyone a chance but arbitrarily overriding an existing Rule is worse IMO. I didn't play the early P5 so I had no skin in the game.

It's a disaster. I think making it an all is probably the right thing, but agree the rule is the rule. You can't just decide to override the rule when you want.

Everything the stewards are involved in is a mess.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So now the 3rd is off the turf. Sucks for people's pick 5's. Wish they would have either made that decision earlier or postponed the 1st 10-15 minutes so people could make adjustments. I like Hatch on the main as well, but he will probably be favored. I'll switch my Longshot to Race 8- #7 Mia Bea Star. Huge rider change and this race feels like one where you want to take a shot against the favorites.

It's a Gamble was AWFUL. Mia Bea Star got up for 2nd, paying $5.80 to place.

Meet totals
$48 wagered
$70.60 returned

[Dahoss]

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 7

Best bet: Race 8- #6 Sassy Melissa
Aragona is the best ML maker in the game but I think the odds on Kokopelli and Sassy melissa are going to be much closer than he does. She's run well here in past, should get plenty of pace to run at and has seemingly been working well. Gets first run on Kokopelli

Longshot: Race 7- #8 Fighter in the Win
Keepmeinmind should win here but I'm not crazy about taking 3/5 on a horse who is 1 for 11 lifetime. He's kept good company and if he returns in same form wins but I wanted to take a stab with a horse who I think might appreciate dirt. It's telling to me at least Chad Brown puts Fighter in the Win on dirt. He must be working well over it. Dam won a dirt route in her debut and I think this one is well meant.

I think both picks are still running.

Meet totals
$56 wagered
$70.60 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Day 6
Best bet: Race 7 #4 It's a Gamble
Kelly Breen spent the better part of two years trying to make this one a router and in his defense he's had some success. But, he's 2 for 2 sprinting, including winning his debut here, after a slow break. If you watch a replay of his two sprint races, you can see he his run really seems amplified the shorter he goes. Monster rider switch. Won't be the 6-1 ML he was but should still be in the 3-4 to 1 range

Longshot: Race 3- #2 Hatch
He's not going to be 12-1 because of the scratch but might still be 6-7 to 1. First off the claim by Mike Maker, goes to turf, dam was a stakes winner on turf and of the other horses who would you want to bet in here? Just feel like this one at least has some upside whereas we know what the others can do.

I believe Race 3 is off the turf. Which is weird since the MTOs appear to be scratched.