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#1
06-12-2022, 05:06 AM
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BEL Belmont S (G1): Mo Donegal 98 (Uncle Mo) T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz
BEL Metropolitan H (G1): Flightline 112 (Tapit) J. Sadler/F. Prat BEL Manhattan (G1): Tribhuvan-FR 108 (Toronado-IRE) C. Brown/M. Franco BEL Acorn (G1): Matareya 89 (Pioneerof the Nile) B. Cox/F. Prat BEL Ogden Phipps (G1): Clairiere 106 (Curlin) S. Asmussen/J. Rosario BEL Just a Game (G1): Regal Glory 103 (Animal Kingdom) C. Brown/J. Ortiz BEL Jaipur (G1): Casa Creed 102 (Jimmy Creed) B. Mott/L. Saez BEL Woody Stephens (G1): Jack Christopher 107 (Munnings) C. Brown/J. Ortiz BEL Brooklyn (G2): Fearless 95 (Ghostzapper) T. Pletcher/L. Saez
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 06-12-2022 at 03:39 PM. 
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#3
06-12-2022, 06:54 AM
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Weird day to make speed figures when you have horses who were clearly geared down late and could have run faster times.
Matareya, Jack Christopher and Flightline were all basically eased in the last 1/16m or so. Same with Jackie's Warrior on Friday. Interested to see what numbers Beyer and TimeFormUS assigned. By my humble figures, Mo Donegal ran huge.
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#4
06-12-2022, 08:29 AM
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#5
06-12-2022, 03:38 PM
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CD Mighty Beau Overnight S: Just Might 92 (Justin Phillip) M. Lovell/R. Bejarano
WO Stella Artois Fury S: Moira - (Ghostzapper) K. Attard/R. Hernandez MTH Lady's Secret S: Leader of the Band 88 (Bandbox) J. Servis/I. Castillo SA Affirmed S (G3): Hopper 95 (Declaration of War) S. McCarthy/A. Cedillo CT It's Only Money S: Hypothesis - (Algorithms) C. Pickett/J. Montano GP Martha Washington S: Sister Lou Ann 77 (Frosted) S. Joseph/L. Reyes GP Not Surprising S: California Frolic 77 (California Chrome) A. De La Cerda/E. Perez HAW Work All Week S: Isolate 94 (Mark Valeski) T. Amoss/O. Mojica GG Albany S: Give Me the Lute 87 (Boisterous) A. Mathis/I. Orozco PRM Prairie Mile S: Rome 86 (Empire Maker) S. Condon/W. De La Cruz PRM Panthers S: Butterbean 89 (Klimt) K. McPeek/G. Corbett PRM Jim Rasmussen S: Ax Man 90 (Misremembered) D. McFarlane/E. Gonzalez HST River Rock Casino S: Shamra (Lent) E. Mendoza/E. Hernandez HST Ross McLeod S: Regal Riot (Jersey Town) R. Anderson/E. Hernandez
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 06-13-2022 at 05:59 AM.
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#6
06-13-2022, 01:56 PM
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So I have a question. It’s not a knock at all on Beyer so please don’t take it that way. It’s not saying that I think he’s right or wrong either. It’s just a question so hopefully, I can gain more knowledge. Reading Beyer’s article, he says that the track variant was the same from the start of the day to the finish. If that’s the case, why not apply it to the Brooklyn? I understand when he says that doing so would have caused an unusually low number for the winner and others in the field but my question is why does that matter? He says that they arbitrarily assigned a number to the race that made it make sense with what the runners had done in the past. But the problem as I see it is that with the way this race was run, with the extremely slow pace, this wasn’t a normal race for any of them so why try to normalize it by giving it a normal figure? Freddy made the statement that he was unsure how anyone could think Mo Donegal and Nest were faster than the Brooklyn horses and it’s a legitimate question. But that can only happen if you take figures at face value and say the horses that ran the higher numbers were the faster horses. I would think that most people that aren’t novices would understand that this is not the correct assumption as far as the overall ability of the horses but I would think it should be clear that absent the evidence of a changing track speed, on this day, the Belmont horses were faster. At that point, it would seem like a handicapper should be able to understand the difference between faster and better. We don’t know if Mo Donegal is faster/better than the Brooklyn winner but we can safely assume he’s not 14 points better as the raw data says. So I would think any decent to good handicapper could look at the chart and figure out that there were extenuating circumstances that led to huge difference in figures and react accordingly. Maybe even capitalize on it wagering wise on the next out races for the Brooklyn horses. I guess I just feel like Beyer didn’t need to “dumb it down” for people. Do we really need to be told that the Brooklyn was a normal race when it’s obvious that it wasn’t?
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#7
06-13-2022, 03:44 PM
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Hybrid Mode
