June 4 Churchill Downs Points Picks go here . . .

[Alli]

D'oh! You can't win if you don't include the last race! LOL Woe is me!

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Alli

D'oh! You can't win if you don't include the last race! LOL Woe is me!

Sure ya can, just knock it out of the park on the first 10 you did enter.

[cal828]

You won't have any problem beating me. I played as lousy this time at Churchill as I did last time. I spent way too much time trying to make sense of that last race and finally just gave up so I might have done just as well to have skipped it too.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by cal828

You won't have any problem beating me. I played as lousy this time at Churchill as I did last time. I spent way too much time trying to make sense of that last race and finally just gave up so I might have done just as well to have skipped it too.

Most of us looked prettty bad yesterday. Our long shot players must have hit a bomb or two in ROI.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Most of us looked prettty bad yesterday. Our long shot players must have hit a bomb or two in ROI.

When you play a card ahead of time like we do, you can't account for how the track will play. At least, I don't know how to do that unless maybe you watch videos of the day before. Yesterday, the off the pace type runners seem to prevail in pretty much every race which I think accounts for what seemed to be a steady parade of longer odds runners so maybe the long shot players did prevail, but there didn't seem to be any plays that stood out for the usual long shot players. They seemed to struggle just like the rest of us, but I often miss good plays which is another reason to be glad we have RQ on the job.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Most of us looked prettty bad yesterday. Our long shot players must have hit a bomb or two in ROI.

It can be difficult to spot a real longshot when you need to make your wager far in advance of the race.

To me a real value play is when the actual betting odds are far in excess of what the astute handicapper thinks they should be, but you can only determine that by looking at the tote board shortly before the race is run.

Two examples jump out at me from yesterday. In the Arlington (race 8), the winner, Admissions Office, was a legitimate contender and was listed in the ML at 3-1. It went off at 8-1 in the actual betting and represented sound value. Similarly, in the Aristides (race 9) Bango was the co-third choice in the ML at 4-1 odds, but was allowed to leave the gate at around 10-1, once again providing good betting value for the tote watchers.

Unfortunately, we need to place our ROI wagers before first post, so our longshot players would not have been able to recognize that betting value, and might have chosen to disregard both of those legitimate contenders as "not enough betting value to merit a bet."

Just one of the many fascinating variables in this game that we play. It's also why I wait until just a couple of minutes before the race goes off before I place my real wagers, and pay a great deal of attention to the action on the tote board. Every so often it pays off.

[cal828]

I think we're going to more than have our hands full with those "fascinating variables" this coming weekend. I think I counted 9 stakes. Do they do brain transplants or is that only in Mary Shelley novels? I don't know about you, but my play on the $200 days has been pretty bad. Hopefully it will improve on Belmont Stakes Day. I think I would be fairly happy just to get my two C notes back, but maybe there's hope. I have done fairly well a couple of times in the Belmont. Unfortunately, that's about 2 times out of the 40 or so years I've been playing it.

[DonGuido]

Many cards we start at race 3 and we can see the first 2 if we have TV coverage. I have occassionally made changes with that option.

[Real Quiet]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think we're going to more than have our hands full with those "fascinating variables" this coming weekend. I think I counted 9 stakes. Do they do brain transplants or is that only in Mary Shelley novels? I don't know about you, but my play on the $200 days has been pretty bad. Hopefully it will improve on Belmont Stakes Day. I think I would be fairly happy just to get my two C notes back, but maybe there's hope. I have done fairly well a couple of times in the Belmont. Unfortunately, that's about 2 times out of the 40 or so years I've been playing it.

When you mentioned 40 years I had to navigate over to Equibase and look up my old friend Pass Catcher who might have been my first longshot winner. That Belmont was 51 years ago. My friend's dad, a trainman, got me a ticket from NYC OTB and after winning I had to take a train to the city and cash it at one of their facilities. That was in the days when the Jersey Derby was a prep or at least before the Belmont. Racing has changed a lot but never really changes. The challenge of picking the right horse is still the same and still exciting.