Rich Strike in the Belmont

[blackthroatedwind]

He won't be an overlay. Maybe the ones you mentioned will be underlays:-)

Of course, you're right about Mo Donegal based on the Derby, though Rich Strike had a slightly better trip. But, Mo Donegal has a far better overall resume, and somehow Todd Pletcher feels like a safer play than Eric Reed. I don't mean that as a knock, but among his many achievements, his level of success with his Belmont Stakes runners ( and not just ones that won ) speaks for itself.

Rich Strike took advantage of a huge pace meltdown. Those kinds of winners are rarely good bet backs in their next start. Until we see the field, and get to look at them, it's good to keep and open mind, but given he won the Derby at 80:1, and really should have been 200:1, mathematically he sort of can't be an overlay....if that makes sense.