5/7 (CD): 148th Kentucky Derby Day

Left Bank · #1 05-07-2022, 06:16 PM

I'm all about Taiba and Mike Smith

Dahoss · #2 05-07-2022, 07:06 PM

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Sonny Leon just won the Derby

King Glorious · #3 05-07-2022, 07:09 PM

Love it.

Conrad · #4 05-07-2022, 09:28 PM

Nobody wants to hear a sorry ass horse player bitch & moan over a tough beat, so I'll just say that I almost won a lot of money.

That Is All

LITF · #5 05-07-2022, 10:12 PM

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

King Glorious · #6 05-07-2022, 11:12 PM

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.

LITF · #7 05-07-2022, 11:25 PM

Isn't that the problem? We'll see how he runs back but come on. I heard Randy Moss say that this is what happens when you have a pace like we had today but we had some of the best closers in recent Derby memory not close like he closed. He out closed Mo Donegal? Really? I haven't watched the replay yet but that seems far fetched unless Mo got stopped somewhere along the way. This was just one of those moments that makes you question (with all of your being) why you've chosen this to be your hobby.

And if I have to hear about that ride one more freaking time...that ride should not have mattered. That ride should have gotten him 10th, which would've been an outstanding run from him.

I hope they test this horse like he was a Baffert winning his 100th Derby. At least they would make sense. Otherwise...

OldDog · #8 05-08-2022, 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think you don’t change up your normal way of handicapping races because something crazy happened. Don’t let “anything can happen” make you start throwing money at what you think is illogical.

They could run this race 100 more times and tell me in advance that he is going to win and I STILL wouldn’t bet him.

Agree. The two horses that I thought had the best chances at winning would have been 1-2 but for a freaky run from Rich Strike, a run that I will be shocked if he ever repeats it.

RolloTomasi · #9 05-07-2022, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

moses · #10 05-08-2022, 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

As someone who bet Mo Donegal, I keep wondering - would Mo Donegal have won if Sonny Leon was riding him instead of Irad? At one point in time, those two horses were basically at the same spot on the track. They took different approaches/routes and we see what happened. Not sure Irad really gave him a shot to win.

I’m still in shock from that race.

jms62 · #11 05-08-2022, 06:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The main closers were Zandon and Mo Donegal.

Ahead of the race, much was made of the former laying closer than he had in the Blue Grass. That proved to be a somewhat faulty strategy as they went :45+ and 1:10+ and that horse was only 5-6 lengths or so away. Prat also starting advancing a bit early (with a 1/2 mile still left to go). Shades of Point Given perhaps.

Mo Donegal didn't make a move until the top of the stretch (the winner was already advancing and awaiting room while saving ground) and when he did he got the patented 15-wide run that's always good for a "split the field" effort. The minor closer Barber Road chartered a similar course.

I've been thinking all night that if Zandon couldn't win with that setup he never could beat this bunch. After reading your post I concede that it was because he was closer to the pace that cost him. Mid stretch it looked like he was going to put Epicenter away and just flattened.

Hoblin · #12 05-08-2022, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LITF

Serious question. How are we supposed to play this game with any confidence moving forward? I mean, what? I get upsets happen. And I get they make little sense at times but I can't even think of a comparison in any sport to explain to my non horse racing friends what just happened. This is not St. Peter's. This is a team that didn't even make the NCAA tournament somehow WINNNING the NCAA tournament. (I get the pace was hot but there were plenty of closes that didn't close like him). Come on...

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Dahoss · #13 05-08-2022, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoblin

Rich Strike had a BRIS late pace figure of 89 three races back at a mile, 93 two races back at 1 1/16, and 107 last race going 1 1/8 (finishing ahead of undercard winner Stolen Base), so it made sense that he could move forward at 1 1/4 miles, especially if there was a hot pace up front. Being the second-youngest horse in the race, a case could also be made that he would catch up in figures to those who matured before him.

Was he on my tickets? No. But looking back at the PPs (which I do after every losing wager), it wasn’t an impossible result by any stretch.

Of course it was impossible. The horse ran and he was well prepared and got an incredible ride.

But he was impossible. I don't care when he was born, he was completely outclassed going into the race and had been soundly beaten by these same horses before.