Fixed Race at Fg Xmas Eve

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Brianspencer: The horse improved about fifteen lengths off his lifetime best, after three recent, pitiful efforts. His top Beyer was 70 going in, and he Beyered 81. I submit the horse improved about fifteen lengths off his best and a pole and a half off his latest. Why do you disagree?

I disagree because your analysis of his improvement is 100% wrong. Wrong, as in not even up for discussion. Wrong, as in so wrong that there is not even a 1% chance that you are right. Wrong, as in even if I were 10 beers into the night I would still have a better analysis of it than you, which at one point in the thread, I think I actually did.

And don't worry about overkill on the thread, the wild conjecture and your surprisingly strong conviction about the whole thing all makes so little sense that it cannot possibly cease to be entertaining.

Coincidence is the simultaneous, accidental occurrence of events. When Direct Splash won Xmas eve coincidence was not in the house. Two events most agree on are:

Event 1) Direct Splash had a sudden, dramatic reversal of form.

Event 2) Sylvester Carmouche Jr. was the jockey.

Regarding the former it would take some very creative handicapping to explain his performance. A lifetime effort by 11 Beyer points in his 17th start after three x's!
The race was split (two races carded on the same day with identical conditions) and I estimate thousands of split races were run in North America at six furlongs last year. How many had a time difference of over a full second? I would guess less than a handful.

As for the latter, Mr. Carmouche has had a checkered career, including a ten year ban from the sport for fraud. In 2003, he fell from his mount one morning at Delta and sued a constuction company claiming one of their trucks caused a disturbance. The case was tossed when the company proved they did not have a truck within miles of the track. Having followed Louisiana racing for many years I would label Carmouche as a buzzer jock but that would be opinion. Likewise, I could relate some of the emails I recieved from some Nola people offering past firsthand knowledge, but that would be hearsay.

In conclusion people have their own ideas and thats great. My take is O.J. is guilty, the world is not flat, and he plugged the horse in. Any other explanation contains conclusions laced with naivety and/or highly questionable handicapping. Playing Sunday BBB

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

whatever dude.....did you have the horse..if not its poor handicapping on your part because you knew the guy rides dirty...according to you..

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

1. Regarding the former it would take some very creative handicapping to explain his performance. A lifetime effort by 11 Beyer points in his 17th start after three x's!


2. Any other explanation contains conclusions laced with naivety and/or highly questionable handicapping. Playing Sunday BBB

1. It's not "creative," just logical handicapping. It's redboarding for certain, but it was not the most shocking event we will ever see.

I will just refer you to my original post for something like the 6th time: http://www.derbytrail.com./forums/sh...4&postcount=15

2. You're implying that anyone else's conclusion is naive and highly questionable? You're pretty much all alone on this one, bud.

However that's better than sour grapes any day man. And that's basically all you've managed to convey in this thread, is that you didn't cash a ticket and it made you sad. Very sad. And sour. Like sour grapes.

[blackthroatedwind]

I can't speak for everyone but I find they are many less fixed races taking place when I'm in the midst of a winning streak.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can't speak for everyone but I find they are many less fixed races taking place when I'm in the midst of a winning streak.

you can speak for me with that.