3/11-13 (CD): Future Wager ~ Derby Pool #4/Lone Oaks Pool

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Its no surprise that Causeway is 10-1 because it always happens when a horse wins near the close of these pools especially since it was the only prep this weekend. I do think the horse has some upside. He didn't break a sweat in that race and seemed to have lots left. The horse breaks very well which is always a plus at the derby. Conditions were not good especially with the wind. Obviously the figures will need to get better but the horse did what he needed in those two Tampa races. I think this horse can progress from here and wouldnt surprise me to be a contender.

Yes, recency affects dopes, I get that. Of course he has upside, it's March of his 3YO season, and he's only run five times. Unfortunately for him, this also applies to every other horse that is already better than him. I don't know what "he didn't break a sweat in that race" means but I know it's not a sound handicapping concept ( nor is it true ). I don't know what " he seemed to have lots left" means either but it sounds like trainer or jockey speak to me and it doesn't mean anything either.

Once again, you're missing the point. He has the same running style as three horses, two of which are definitely better ( please tell me Epicenter "broke a sweat" and "didn't have lots left" ) and another who appears to be superior but needs to prove it more definitively. Unless at least two of Epicenter, Forbidden Kingdom, and Early Voting don't make the Derby ( which is possible ) his task, even if he was good enough, would likely be nearly impossible. The fact that he has shown himself to be inferior to at least two of them, both of whom won even more easily, one clearly against better horses, makes his chances almost nil.

He's a good horse. I won't be shocked if he wins races like the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens, both major Grade 1 races, but he's not winning this KY Derby as things stand now. I'm not sure what kind of sound logic argues against that.