7/21: Saratoga Race 1 Steeplechase - The Jonathan Kiser Novice

[Flatterer]

Steeplechase is back at Saratoga!

7 runners line up in the Jonathan Kiser Novice Stakes at 2 1/16 miles over 8 fences. This running will not allow Lasix, pursuant to stakes race protocol NYRA established this year.

Due to a shortage of jump jockeys, apprentice riders (5 pound bug) are allowed to participate at Saratoga. The approved riders with career record and earnings in the USA are Richard Condon (3/0-1-0 $9K), Brian Linehan (15/5-1-1 $72K) and Skylar McKenna (71/10-9-8 $129K). Condon and Linehan are from Ireland. Skylar is the 4th leading rider with 6 winners and 6th leading rider in money earned with $74K in 2021. She is the best apprentice I’ve seen in a long time, and deserves a long look at the entry box.

In addition to the Lasix policy, NYRA’s running restriction for horses 10 years old and older knocked out several good runners, so field size will be limited this year.

Here is a look at the Kiser field with NSA ratings in parenthesis.

#3 The Mean Queen (127) is the top steeplechase mare in training and highest rated in the field. She gets a weight break at 146 and would be 158 high weight if this was a handicap. She easily beat 5 boys in Virginia May 29 running the 2nd fastest time of the day, rates nicely and has a target to run down (#7 Bodes Well) for the final 7/16th flat run after the last fence.

#6 A Silent Player (121) ran well on a flat track at Colonial and Saratoga last year for owner Irv Naylor, setting a course record in his first try maiden breaking win at Colonial. He defeated #7 Bodes Well in Georgia 11/7/20 running the fastest time of the day. I’m concerned that he did not run a Point to Point race this year but trainer Brion, who trained all of Jonathan Sheppard’s horses last year due to COVID-19, will have this one ready to go.

#5 Arch My Boy (127) runs well on flat tracks, only 2 lengths behind 9 in a row winner Snap Decision at Belmont in 2019.

#4 Fast Car (119) ran well at Nashville in June, won at Saratoga in 2020 beating a bunch of tomato cans, has leading jockey Watters and leading trainer Fisher, and has enough closing kick to make things interesting but must carry 153 pounds.

#1 The Happy Giant (120) won at Tryon in June with the fastest time and gets acid test today. Picks up 11 pounds off that victory but runs well on flat tracks and has good closing speed.

#7 Bodes Well (118) will go to the front and try to hang on a long as he can, but has no flat track speed to be competitive after the last jump.

#2 City Dreamer (126) hasn’t won since 2019, qualifies because the other 2 wins were against restricted 3YO company in 2017, and Clancy will pick him underneath because he usually gets a check.

Race shape will have #7 Bodes Well setting the pace for 1 ½ laps. #5 Arch My Boy and #6 A Silent Player will be in the first flight behind the pace setter, with the others further back positioning to save ground. #3 The Mean Queen will make the first move from the trailing pack after the 6th fence on the clubhouse turn and will try to get first run at the leader. As a result, everyone else will hit the ”Go” button making the final backstretch run dicey. After the last fence, #7 Bodes Well will retreat, #3 The Mean Queen, #6 A Silent Player, #4 Fast Car, will show the most speed with #5 Arch My Boy and #1 The Happy Giant close behind. The best closing speed will win and with the light weight, #3 The Mean Queen will prevail.

The Selections:

A) 3

B) 6

C) 4-5-1

Good Luck at the races!