June 26 Churchill Downs Points Picks go here

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by JolyB

That is a very interesting race card we have to contend with on Saturday. I would almost be so bold to say it is two race cards, since the first 4 races are so different from the rest of the card. I found the stakes races to be challenging to handicap but not impossible. You could identify realistic contenders, consider several throwouts and get a reasonable sense of the likely race flow. The first four races, however, were a complete mystery to me. My best chance of success in them is to break out a dart board. It was obvious that the morning linemaker was also having difficulty with that part of the card. In race 4 for example the linemaker made the favorite 7-2 in a field of 9 and then made the longest price in the field 8-1. I sincerely doubt that the actual betting will reflect that. But I'm out at sea as to how to play the race.

Hope that all of you do not have as much trouble with this part of the card.

I wanted to post this followup as an example of how far off of the mark some morning lines can be. On Saturday I had questioned the line for race 4 as what I thought was way off of the mark. Comparing the ML with the charts, #3 Bourbon War was the co-4th choice with odds of 6-1. He went off at odds of 2-1. On the other hand, the other ML co-4th choice was American Tatoo, also at 6-1. He was sent to the post as the longest shot in the field with actual odds of 30-1. I shouldn't be too critical- I've had bad days at the office also. But this is just one example of how far off of the mark you can be by blindly following the ML rather than trying to do your own analysis. Then again, since American Tatoo finished 2nd perhaps the linemaker was smarter than the bettors. But, his job isn't to predict winners but to predict how the betting public will place their wagers.

[cal828]

Strangely, my opinion was far better in races 1 and 2, both maiden races, than in 3 and 4. I wish I was braver in the ROI and played difficult races like 9 and 12. I probably wouldn't ever hit the board, but if I did, the returns would be so much better. Those races looked like any one of 6 or 7 horses could win so I wisely avoided them and hit the race I played, but it was hardly worth it. As the keeper of the abacus said, "humbling."