so with saratoga coming up

[Dahoss]

How about just avoiding those races?

There should be enough other races for you to bet.

To sort of answer your question, there is no magic formula for baby races or off track races or maiden races. There is no substitute for putting in real handicapping work. If you’re willing to put the work in, there are some things you can do to improve your understanding of some of these races a bit… but in my experience most people are not interested in the work.

Workouts are a good start in baby and maiden races but there is so much more to a work than just the number so if you don’t see the work (and know what to look for) it’s not much help. Workout reports are okay, but can be costly.

For the most part, following the money is a good first indicator in baby races. Connections play a big role as well. One thing you can look at is when the horse was sold and for what price. A horse that was sold at one of the 2 year old sales this year for a high price probably has at least a little talent….or might be quick. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to win, but it’s a start. Most of the 2 year old sales have websites and you can view the horses work at the sale.

Another thing I look at it is how much the sire stands for and then what the horse sold for. Obviously the Into Mischief babies are going to sell for a lot but an obscure or lesser known stallion having a baby sell for 5-10 times his stud fee might indicate some talent.

It’s not an exact science but I don’t like to see a horse have 2 or 3 gate works in a row leading up to a race. To me that means the horse isn’t good from the gate, and the trainer is trying to get them better from the gate, but thats just my opinion.

On sloppy and muddy tracks, try and focus on horses with good dirt form. So many off the turf races are bet like they are still the grass that there are opportunities.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

On sloppy and muddy tracks, try and focus on horses with good dirt form. So many off the turf races are bet like they are still the grass that there are opportunities.

This is a critical point that is often discussed on NYRA's Talking Horses pregame show. Folks will complain about off-the-turf days yet "value" (as opposed to exclusively using "price") can oft be found on these races.

In order to answer the sloppy/muddy track question, you have to consider whether the race was carded for turf or dirt. Playing turf form on sloppy/muddy dirt is a recipe for losing your bankroll more quickly.

Take a look back at your betting in off-the-turf races and see what you are playing : turf form or MTO entrants.

[ScottJ]

Perfect example to consider in off-the-turf value analysis : Take a look at Race 2 at Belmont today, Friday, July 2nd, an off-the-turf state-bred Maiden Claiming $40000 race at 6 furlongs. If you have handicapped this race under the new conditions and decided that Distractandattack is the horse to beat, review the dirt side of this gelding's races. Having this one in the race creates value as a bet-against.