5/22: Churchill Downs After Dark (X-C P5)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS AFTER DARK ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: Winning Colors (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR #5 Bayerness and be aware that #3 Tipsy Gal may come out as well after being entered back for Sunday..

Most Likely: #2 Frank's Rockette 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Headland 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Sconsin 8-5 WON ($4.20)


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Interesting claiming affair with 3 having changes barns (3-4-5) and another pair taking drops into tag company (6-8)..

Best Value: #4 Shi O'Shi 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Duplicitous 4-1 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Nightlife 5-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Vintage Ready 6-1 2nd


BELMONT 9th: Seek Again, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Cross Country P5 (BEL 9-10; CD 7-8-9) Starts Here..

From a competition level standpoint, Flavius & Get Smokin exit G1 affairs and look to be one-two turning for home unless I. Ortiz is aggressive with Epic Dreamer..

Most Likely: #10 Flavius 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Get Smokin 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #3 Tell Your Daddy 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Delaware 4-1 4th


BELMONT 10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner

Several here still have upside including Three Diamonds/Maker first turf Lemon Taffy, debuting Dancing Firefly and 2nd time grass A/E Bella Principessa..

Best Value: #3 Lemon Taffy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Dancing Firefly 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Reely Psyched 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Emma and I 7-2 WON ($7.00)


CHURCHILL 7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Shoshoni Moon 8-1: Stretches out under hustling Mena.. 7th
Next Best: #6 Bold Tactics 9-2: West home bred solid for Catman in OP pair.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Wolfbane 15-1: Dirt move for last of Mrs. Wyeth's (Union Rags) legacy.. 5th
Super Add: #5 Seaside Retreat 3-1: With Kizzy B, 4yo's that are running out of time.. WON ($7.00)


CHURCHILL 8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Deep, difficult group. Note that Guest Suite SCR'd & Thirstforlife are only players that run for the tag..

Best Value: #4 Empty Tomb 5-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #10 Big Dreaming 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Dream Maker 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 My Sixth Sense 5-1 7th


P4 Grid:

5: 2-4 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
6: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
7: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 4-10 (A), 1-3-5 (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $9 (6) + $6 (8) + $12 (5-7) + $18 (6-9)

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/5/5,8/4) Paid $243.70


CHURCHILL 9th: Keertana, F&M-4+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Temple City Terror 5-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #5 Pass the Plate 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Dalika 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Delta's Kingdom 5-2 5th


X-C P5 Grid:

BEL 9: 5-10 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
BEL 10: 3-9 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
CD 7: 3-6 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
CD 8: 4-10 (A), 1-3 (B), 5-9 (C)
CD 9: 4-5 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: $16 (3-6) + $16 (5-8) + $16 (8-10)


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Aloha West 1-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #3 Trashtalkinyankee 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Calibrate 7-5 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Incorrigible 10-1 3rd


11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Summer Palace 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #10 Exult 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Lastchanceatglory 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Casanova Kitten 9-2 WON ($11.80)


P5 Grid:

7: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 1-4-10 (A), 3-5 (B), 6-9 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
10: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-10 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x4x1x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $12 (5-7) + $12 (6-9) + $36 (1-4-7-8)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-10 (A), 3-5 (B), 6-9 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
10: 2 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
11: 1-3-10 (A), 4-7-8 (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backups: $6 (6-9) + $18 (1-3) + $3 (9)

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/4/2/7) Paid $256.95


Good luck!
Steve

[ontheoutside]

if you had to handicap the 2nd at churchill,,,how do you see it like you always do
best value
most
next
exotic
thank you im playin a pk 5,, and i got the 1st//3rd//4th//5th/
but am stymied in the 2nd
thank you again

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

if you had to handicap the 2nd at churchill,,,how do you see it like you always do
best value
most
next
exotic
thank you im playin a pk 5,, and i got the 1st//3rd//4th//5th/
but am stymied in the 2nd
thank you again

My opinion

4 would be top pick. Depending on you ticket I would cover 1,2 and 7 in that order. Good luck

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

if you had to handicap the 2nd at churchill,,,how do you see it

Most Likely: #2 Centerfold Angel 3-1
Best Value: #7 Lil Miss Hot Mess 5-1
Next Best: #1 Rude Awakening 3-1
Exotics Use: #4 Black Kettle 5-2

Good luck!

[ontheoutside]

steve and knick
i got lucky yesterday
i played the early pk 5 at chill
3//42///567//1246//2 not one horse payed over 9 bucks but yet the pick payed 450,,, so i got a little ammo today
my ticket yesterday cost only 12 bucks,, i got lucky
going to give a whirl today
than you again

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[casp0555]

so On Deck finally figured out she could run on dirt

[Kasept]

Cleverly left nearly $3,000 on the table declining to prominently include career maiden looking Seaside Retreat & Emma and I.

X-C paid $1,747 and Late P5 $1,148.

[gamblin4ever]

Nice handicapping yesterday Steve.