Weekend Stakes Beyers: Medina Spirit 102; Malathaat 95

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

All that "good stock" had already blown their collective wads well before the race...including Jackie's Warrior.

If Chad Brown said the race was tough my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses.

Who was supposed to "step up" exactly?

Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree, that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt and Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year ruining the early careers of Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell.

Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got brow beat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. Sad part is, he's by Medgalia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler.

Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness...

Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter just to get back on the right track.

Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next..

Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? To be fair, the latter don't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other he was probably going to need to ship out-of-state. His runner-up effort here is probably only going to emboldened his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side, we didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse last place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)...

Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a :45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby...

In regards to Dream Shake, I wanted to ask something. The horse came within a head of winning a $500k, grade two race at Churchill on Derby Day. What would that have done for his vaiue? In an era when we are lucky to get 10 starts out of them before they retire and each start is possibly their last, was it really that bad a move to try to strike while the proverbial iron was hot? If you're looking for the easiest way to build a career, I would agree with you that staying in California and running in an easy race like the Barrera would be a better move. But the horse was 7/2 in one of the top races of his division and earned $94k and a placing in a grade two. Would winning the Barrera really have been better for him? Hell, it's not crazy to think that the field he beat in his maiden might be tougher than what he'd face in the Barrera and then when they did ship him, wouldn't you be saying running third in weak California fields and then beating a weak field in a 5-horse Barrera? Personally, I feel like we got a better barometer of how good the horse is here than we would have had he stayed home and run in a much weaker race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

In regards to Dream Shake, I wanted to ask something. The horse came within a head of winning a $500k, grade two race at Churchill on Derby Day. What would that have done for his vaiue?

I'm not particularly worried about his value; I'm worried about his longevity because he appears to have talent.

To your point, I don't think it would have done anything more for his "value" that any other graded stakes would have. The Derby Trial is not an important race, never has been, and isn't now no matter how much they dress it up.

A cursory review of the winners tells you that. Between 1990 and 1995 it produced some nice horses (although Housebuster was already well established), but that was when it was not pigeon-holed as a 3yo sprint division race and not buried on the undercard of the Kentucky Derby.

In an era when we are lucky to get 10 starts out of them before they retire and each start is possibly their last, was it really that bad a move to try to strike while the proverbial iron was hot?

Again, the Pat Day Mile is not an important race. You might have had a point if we were talking about him running in the Kentucky Derby, but then he would have been hopeless in that race anyways.

Also, the iron was not hot. He had done nothing beyond a sharp maiden score and his last 2 were completely underwhelming even though some people seem to think he had a strong chance in each of those races.

If you're looking for the easiest way to build a career, I would agree with you that staying in California and running in an easy race like the Barrera would be a better move.

Again, not interested in "building a career" for some stallion advert. His connections should be trying to help the horse reach his full potential, which was probably considerable after his maiden score, but most likely has been decidedly compromised with this pipe dream campaigning. And now I wouldn't be surprised if he busted a gut in this second-tier race, when he could have gotten back on track with a score in the Barrera (if he was good enough), setting him up nicely for the Grade 1 Woody Stephens 3 weeks later.

But the horse was 7/2 in one of the top races of his division and earned $94k and a placing in a grade two. Would winning the Barrera really have been better for him?

You'll have to explain to me how the Pat Day Mile is a top race. I understand it has a large purse but so do races at Delta Downs and Charlestown.

By the way, winning a graded stakes is better than placing in a graded stakes. And it's less taxing when you run out of your own stall against a small field. That's important when a horse's career has been delayed until 3 years of age and is lightly raced.

Hell, it's not crazy to think that the field he beat in his maiden might be tougher than what he'd face in the Barrera and then when they did ship him, wouldn't you be saying running third in weak California fields and then beating a weak field in a 5-horse Barrera?

Failing to win a route races doesn't negate his chances cutting back to one-turn. And it wouldn't matter what my opinion was of him ahead of the Woody Stephens if he ended up winning it. I'd would just be wrong in that case (although to be clear, I'm not questioning the horse's talent, I'm questioning his management).

By the way, in a sensible world, Flightline would be in the Barrera, too, as well as a couple of prospects from Baffert's barn (Freedom Fighter, Triple Tap, Following Sea, Laurel River) and The Chosen Vron. I doubt it will come up weaker than his maiden race, which thus far has only produced Law Professor (another SA Derby also-ran) and Bezos (who I'm guessing we won't be seeing again for some time).

Personally, I feel like we got a better barometer of how good the horse is here than we would have had he stayed home and run in a much weaker race.

The problem is--considering the way the race played out and his previous "into the frying pan" starts--that it might also have been his last good race period.

And we didn't even discuss how well bred he is for the turf...