Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 04-25-2021, 07:03 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Yep, people who appreciate competitive, exciting racing presented by a genuine, non-condescending broadcast crew :-)
You never answered....how can one be against the Maximum Security DQ (where a horse took out multiple runners) but think this was obvious.

I’m genuinely curious about the thought process here.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 04-25-2021, 08:05 AM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss View Post
You never answered....how can one be against the Maximum Security DQ (where a horse took out multiple runners) but think this was obvious.

I’m genuinely curious about the thought process here.
Because I primarily follow racing that uses "Category 1" rules, whereby the only questions the stewards have to resolve are: did interference occur, and if so, would horse B have finished ahead of horse A had interference not occurred? Based on this, any preposition that War of Will and/or Long Range Toddy would have finished ahead of Maximum Security is nothing but baseless conjecture. Was the interference suffered by WoW more than what happened at Tampa? Yes. Was it enough to cause a 4.5L losing margin? No. WoW lost at most 0.5-1L in that incident. How can you DQ a horse who was much the best because of an incident which cost the horse a quarter of the losing margin? (yes I know MS was placed behind LRT, which was absurd on its own right as that horse was done and everyone knows it)

The TAM result was a headbob and there is a valid argument that without the interference the 5 would have gotten up. Based on the distance between MS and WoW and the loss of lengths suffered with the interference, I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that WoW (or LRT) would have finished ahead of MS had interference not occurred.

Yes, the rule in the States is different, but I still don't think it warranted a DQ. LRT was finishing nowhere near the top five, and WoW finished 1.25L from the 5th horse, which is more than the 0.5-1L he lost in that incident.

And yes, Category 1 rules work because jockeys actually get proper suspensions instead of slaps on the wrist.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 04-25-2021, 08:24 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Because I primarily follow racing that uses "Category 1" rules, whereby the only questions the stewards have to resolve are: did interference occur, and if so, would horse B have finished ahead of horse A had interference not occurred? Based on this, any preposition that War of Will and/or Long Range Toddy would have finished ahead of Maximum Security is nothing but baseless conjecture. Was the interference suffered by WoW more than what happened at Tampa? Yes. Was it enough to cause a 4.5L losing margin? No. WoW lost at most 0.5-1L in that incident. How can you DQ a horse who was much the best because of an incident which cost the horse a quarter of the losing margin? (yes I know MS was placed behind LRT, which was absurd on its own right as that horse was done and everyone knows it)

The TAM result was a headbob and there is a valid argument that without the interference the 5 would have gotten up. Based on the distance between MS and WoW and the loss of lengths suffered with the interference, I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that WoW (or LRT) would have finished ahead of MS had interference not occurred.

Yes, the rule in the States is different, but I still don't think it warranted a DQ. LRT was finishing nowhere near the top five, and WoW finished 1.25L from the 5th horse, which is more than the 0.5-1L he lost in that incident.

And yes, Category 1 rules work because jockeys actually get proper suspensions instead of slaps on the wrist.
Yeah that sounds real dumb.

There is no way you can say both WOW and LRT were not cost a better placing because of the interference. They weren’t beating MS, but they were absolutely cost a placing.

You’re essentially saying foul whoever you want, at any point of the race as long as the horses you are fouling weren’t going to beat you anyway.

I guess exacta, trifecta and superficial bettors be damned.

I also strongly disagree the 5 was going by the 4. I’m not big on gallop outs, but the 5 never went by the 4 in the gallop out. If there was interference, why did the horse, nor the jockey react?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 04-25-2021, 03:41 PM
v j stauffer
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Because I primarily follow racing that uses "Category 1" rules, whereby the only questions the stewards have to resolve are: did interference occur, and if so, would horse B have finished ahead of horse A had interference not occurred? Based on this, any preposition that War of Will and/or Long Range Toddy would have finished ahead of Maximum Security is nothing but baseless conjecture. Was the interference suffered by WoW more than what happened at Tampa? Yes. Was it enough to cause a 4.5L losing margin? No. WoW lost at most 0.5-1L in that incident. How can you DQ a horse who was much the best because of an incident which cost the horse a quarter of the losing margin? (yes I know MS was placed behind LRT, which was absurd on its own right as that horse was done and everyone knows it)

The TAM result was a headbob and there is a valid argument that without the interference the 5 would have gotten up. Based on the distance between MS and WoW and the loss of lengths suffered with the interference, I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that WoW (or LRT) would have finished ahead of MS had interference not occurred.

Yes, the rule in the States is different, but I still don't think it warranted a DQ. LRT was finishing nowhere near the top five, and WoW finished 1.25L from the 5th horse, which is more than the 0.5-1L he lost in that incident.

And yes, Category 1 rules work because jockeys actually get proper suspensions instead of slaps on the wrist.
The rule reads cost an opportunity of a "better" placing. Not would the horse have finished in front of the one who fouled him. Without the incident could WAR OF WILL have finished in front COUNTRY HOUSE, CODE OF HONOR, TACITUS, IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER and/or MASTER FENCER? Of course. He was knocked sideways. And of course showed his true unobstructed talent by winning the Preakness. BTW the purse for finishing 5th in the Derby is $90,000.

How can you begin to quantify the amount of damage when getting cross body blocked at the quarter pole of his first ever mile and a quarter race. Just the breath knocked out of him could have cost multiple lengths.

Yours could very well be the most ridiculous, incorrect post I've ever read on any forum.

Complete nonsense!
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 04-25-2021, 04:08 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,962
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
...
...Yours could very well be the most ridiculous, incorrect post I've ever read on any forum.
...
Really? That statement may be the most extreme exaggeration since someone wrote "Worst DQ of All Time?"
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 04-25-2021, 04:30 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Really? That statement may be the most extreme exaggeration since someone wrote "Worst DQ of All Time?"
LMAO...still salty, huh?

Good
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 04-26-2021, 11:53 AM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Really? That statement may be the most extreme exaggeration since someone wrote "Worst DQ of All Time?"
The current state of petulance on this forum is absurd. Apparently someone having a different opinion is not acceptable, never mind that also being the opinion of every other major jurisdiction in the world.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 04-26-2021, 11:55 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
The current state of petulance on this forum is absurd. Apparently someone having a different opinion is not acceptable, never mind that also being the opinion of every other major jurisdiction in the world.
Your lack of self awareness is charming
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 04-26-2021, 12:02 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Your lack of self awareness is charming
I was always taught to treat others how they treat you :-)
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 04-26-2021, 12:10 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Your lack of self awareness is charming
You were right about those that post about Hong Kong on boards. It’s pretty funny actually.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 04-26-2021, 11:50 AM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
The rule reads cost an opportunity of a "better" placing. Not would the horse have finished in front of the one who fouled him. Without the incident could WAR OF WILL have finished in front COUNTRY HOUSE, CODE OF HONOR, TACITUS, IMPROBABLE, GAME WINNER and/or MASTER FENCER? Of course. He was knocked sideways. And of course showed his true unobstructed talent by winning the Preakness. BTW the purse for finishing 5th in the Derby is $90,000.
Apparently you decided to skip over the part where I mentioned IMO neither of these horses were finishing in the top five (i.e., purse money slots). If the rule is written so as to DQ MS because LRT finished 17th instead of 16th, that is the most nonsensical rule I've ever heard of.

MS would not have come down anywhere other than in North America. You can find other jurisdiction's opinions of the matter if you look for it.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04-28-2021, 10:07 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: NY
Posts: 379
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Based on this, any preposition that War of Will and/or Long Range Toddy would have finished ahead of Maximum Security is nothing but baseless conjecture.
First off full disclosure I would’ve made a pretty big score of War of Will won the Derby. I also would’ve made a significantly less (4 figure instead of 5) score had Max Security not been taken down. Much as I was not a fan of his I felt you had to use defensively given the trainer.

Point I want to make though...and I realize this thread has been somewhat heated, I swear I’m not trying to be an ass...how exactly is it “baseless conjecture” that WoW could not have finished ahead of Max Security in the derby when sawed off turning for home making what sure seemed like a potential winning move...he then came back to win the Preakness two weeks later and while maybe that wasn’t the best field ever he did beat improbable...

At any rate, my point is, the baseless conjecture seems to be on your part...the conjecture from that Derby is that War of Will wouldn’t have won based on what we will never be able to find out. You sir, in my opinion, are the one making a baseless conjecture...
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04-29-2021, 12:39 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee View Post
Point I want to make though...and I realize this thread has been somewhat heated, I swear I’m not trying to be an ass...how exactly is it “baseless conjecture” that WoW could not have finished ahead of Max Security in the derby when sawed off turning for home making what sure seemed like a potential winning move...he then came back to win the Preakness two weeks later and while maybe that wasn’t the best field ever he did beat improbable...
Code of Honor made "what sure seemed like a potential winning move", and hit a brick wall... He won two G1s at 10f as a 3yo. Maybe if he suffered interference he would have won the Derby?

Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee View Post
At any rate, my point is, the baseless conjecture seems to be on your part...the conjecture from that Derby is that War of Will wouldn’t have won based on what we will never be able to find out. You sir, in my opinion, are the one making a baseless conjecture...
This is the whole point. There is literally zero hard, factual evidence that WoW would have finished ahead of MS. All arguments are based solely on guesses, "could haves", or "look what he did next start". How can that be used to make such crucial decisions? And the result of that crucial decision was that the best horse in the race was placed 17th, the new "winner" was far from the best horse in the race, and the "potential" winner was placed 7th. Does anyone actually benefit from such decisions? In the TAM race, the horse got fouled just before the wire and literally lost on a bob. How anyone can argue that is the worst DQ ever but say the MS DQ was so blatantly obvious is beyond me.

By the way, everyone is so engrossed with the interference that no one ever seems to talk about how Gaffalione essentially stopped riding the horse in the last 40 yards with the horse in 4th place...
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 04-29-2021, 01:01 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Ummmm....your whole argument about War of Will not beating Maximum Security had he not been fouled is also a guess.

Who knows what would have happened. All we know for sure is Maximum Security fouled no less than 3, maybe more horses. Any opinion on where those horses would have finished or if they would have beaten the horse that fouled them is a guess.

Appears as though guessing is okay if you and the rest of the important people around the world in racing agree. I’m just glad you are engaging us common folk.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 04-29-2021, 01:05 PM
moses's Avatar
moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,895
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Code of Honor made "what sure seemed like a potential winning move", and hit a brick wall... He won two G1s at 10f as a 3yo. Maybe if he suffered interference he would have won the Derby?



This is the whole point. There is literally zero hard, factual evidence that WoW would have finished ahead of MS. All arguments are based solely on guesses, "could haves", or "look what he did next start". How can that be used to make such crucial decisions? And the result of that crucial decision was that the best horse in the race was placed 17th, the new "winner" was far from the best horse in the race, and the "potential" winner was placed 7th. Does anyone actually benefit from such decisions? In the TAM race, the horse got fouled just before the wire and literally lost on a bob. How anyone can argue that is the worst DQ ever but say the MS DQ was so blatantly obvious is beyond me.

By the way, everyone is so engrossed with the interference that no one ever seems to talk about how Gaffalione essentially stopped riding the horse in the last 40 yards with the horse in 4th place...
Code of Honor arguably was also fouled while making that move. I'm not sure I ever got a great angle on it but he had a head full of steam, Maximum Security came back inside and may have impeded him. It was moot because Maximum Security so clearly interfered War of Will that no one ever really paid much attention to it.

As for Gaffalione's ride, I'd have to go back. I didn't notice. But the horse was also coming off a possible injury in the Louisiana Derby so if he thought that he needed to ease the horse then I'm not going to second guess him.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05-23-2021, 03:37 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Other side of the globe
Posts: 1,208
Default

Exact same thing as the TAM race happened today at the premier track in Ireland (Curragh). Can see it here around the 5:20 mark (head-on shown after the photo finish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFHpv9_5bpY&t=5m20s

Horse with the green silks bumped the outside horse (in the pink), who had all the momentum, right before the wire and holds on in a bob. Horse is DQ'ed, as was done in Tampa, even in a jurisdiction where DQs are rare. Maybe I'm not such a fool after all
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05-23-2021, 04:26 PM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10,293
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitan View Post
Exact same thing as the TAM race happened today at the premier track in Ireland (Curragh). Can see it here around the 5:20 mark (head-on shown after the photo finish): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFHpv9_5bpY&t=5m20s

Horse with the green silks bumped the outside horse (in the pink), who had all the momentum, right before the wire and holds on in a bob. Horse is DQ'ed, as was done in Tampa, even in a jurisdiction where DQs are rare. Maybe I'm not such a fool after all
I don’t know if fool is the right word. Massive douchebag...sure. But not a fool.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:13 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.