The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[moses]

lol...love reading your commentary.

[King Glorious]

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Isn’t the overall point that he won’t be healthy?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Isn’t the overall point that he won’t be healthy?

I don't make that assumption. But no, I don't think that's his overall point. I took it as his point is that the horse isn't that good or at the very least, won't be any good past 8f.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't make that assumption. But no, I don't think that's his overall point. I took it as his point is that the horse isn't that good or at the very least, won't be any good past 8f.

Well yeah there were many points. How many races you think Charlatan has left in him? 3 at most?

He’s a good, maybe very good horse under the right circumstances. He’s also a horse that has made 5 starts through February of his 4 year old year. Maybe he will be ready by June for the Met Mile but IMO he’s more likely to retire instead of run. I guess we will see but I’m putting the over/under at 3 1/2 more starts for him and I’ll take the under for the table limit.

[blackthroatedwind]

Met Mile, Forego, retirement.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Well yeah there were many points. How many races you think Charlatan has left in him? 3 at most?

He’s a good, maybe very good horse under the right circumstances. He’s also a horse that has made 5 starts through February of his 4 year old year. Maybe he will be ready by June for the Met Mile but IMO he’s more likely to retire instead of run. I guess we will see but I’m putting the over/under at 3 1/2 more starts for him and I’ll take the under for the table limit.

I think that over/under would have to be set at 2.5 starts to be a fair line.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him. To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance. Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

Hence the idiocy of comparing such horses to Seattle Slew, a horse with question marks on both pedigree and running style in terms of his ability to stay a distance who shattered those reservations on the racetrack time and time again (not just in slanted puff pieces and hypotheticals).

When Charlatan outruns Tizamagician in the Pacific Classic in 2:02 and change are you gonna be moved to mention him in the same breath as such a horse?

Never mind Seattle Slew, Charlatan has a long way to go to emulate a horse like Rail Trip...

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him.

You like to narrow the argument of what makes a great horse to a single trait, usually brilliance.

However, great racehorses are more than just fast early. They are sound, competitive, consistent, versatile, display stamina, overcome adversity, show courage, and have the capacity to handle multiple starts.

The irony is when a brilliant horse that is simply faster than all others gets beat, that's when suddenly all those other qualities and factors become relevant.

Oh...he had to run fast early.

Oh..he wasn't allowed to have a clear lead.

Oh...the stretch is so long.

Oh...the track was so tiring.

Oh...the rail was so dead.

Oh...there are only 28 days between this race and the next obvious target.

Oh...he couldn't get whipped the right number of times.

Oh...he couldn't have his joints injected closer than 18 days before the race.

To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance.

That's another limitation of your argument. Maybe you have become numbed by the drop off in quality racing over the past few decades, but believe it or not, all races are not 2-horse races no matter how the hack turf writers frame the pre-race hype. That's the overarching lesson from the Saudi Cup.

Charlatan might beat all those easily in separate match races but nothing from his loss on Saturday suggests that he will fend off multiple challenges from even lesser horses over a meaningful distance of ground.

He was able to put away a horse that folds like a cheap suit, blew a 2-length lead in the stretch, and offered little resistance when headed at the 1/16th pole.

Why any of that rouses confidence in his ability to go a classic distance never mind stirs memories of great horses in gallant displays of defeat is beyond me.

Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.

If not, then the argument will become "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

However, because of all the misplaced and/or scheming hype attached to this horse, one question has already been answered (and it won't matter which of the two guys the bear ends up eating):

Question: Will Charlatan be considered a major stallion prospect despite accomplishing very little?

Answer: Does a bear sh!t in the woods?

[King Glorious]

The thing is, from me, you haven't heard talk that Charlatan is a great horse. I'm not looking to put him in the hall of fame. I wouldn't dare compare him to even the better horses we've seen in the last few years, horses like Gun Runner and American Pharoah. For me, this was never about his standing as a great horse. It's only been a question of whether or not he could be the best horse of this year.

I agree with you that in order to be a great horse, the more different things you can show, the better. At the same time, I don't think you can discount a horse's brilliance simply because of the lack of certain things on the resume. Nobody that watched Gayle Sayers disputes how great he was even though he didn't have the longevity that Emmitt Smith had. Sandy Koufax didn't have the career that Bob Gibson had but people say he was every bit as good if not better. Most veteran observers of football say Pat Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterbacks they have ever seen even though his resume will likely never match Tom Brady's or Peyton Manning's

There is actual and there is speculative. I've never put Charlatan in the great category in comparison to all-timers. But I don't think he'd have to be in order to be the best of this year.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I agree with you that in order to be a great horse, the more different things you can show, the better. At the same time, I don't think you can discount a horse's brilliance simply because of the lack of certain things on the resume. Nobody that watched Gayle Sayers disputes how great he was even though he didn't have the longevity that Emmitt Smith had. Sandy Koufax didn't have the career that Bob Gibson had but people say he was every bit as good if not better. Most veteran observers of football say Pat Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterbacks they have ever seen even though his resume will likely never match Tom Brady's or Peyton Manning's.

Not good comparisons. I'm no expert on their careers, but I presume all those players displayed multiple talents and skills to earn their reputations despite abbreviated careers. They weren't limited to being adept at just one thing.

Charlatan is a brilliant sprinter that has yet to stretch out to any great effect. He has shown no versatility, little courage, and no ability to relax in the early stages or overcome adversity. I guess you can he doesn't completely fold under pressure, though. And he ships well.

To this point he's like a pitcher that can throw a 100 mph fastball but has no control and can't pitch a complete game.

There is actual and there is speculative. I've never put Charlatan in the great category in comparison to all-timers. But I don't think he'd have to be in order to be the best of this year.

You're probably right, but he will probably have to run more than twice.

As it stands now I would speculate the earliest we will see him is in the Alysheba in May. That's an 8.5 furlong, non-grade 1 carded on a day when Churchill Downs is invariably tailored to be speed-oriented, so it probably won't answer too many questions in the Charlataniad aside from whether or not our hero can overcome the dreaded First Turn.

But really, with limited time on his side, he needs to go for the Met Mile, Whitney, and Woodward or Goodwood to confirm his reputation and his purported abilities.