Sns??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

OK, I don't agree with the math at all but no big deal. Apparently I can take any lightly run horse that has shown a little potential and claim they have more upside potential than Sir Greeley so must be 5-1 or 10-1 to win a G1. I think for Strong Contender to turn out good enough to win one of the few G1s out there is 10-1 and then the odds of his actually finding the right spot if that scenario occurs is 3-1 to 4-1. So because of the upside I'd put Strong Contender around 35-1 to win a G1 and Sir Greeley at 50-1. Just the odds alone of Strong Contender being out of training by the time they run the 2nd G1 on the east coast in May are pretty substantial.

If you think Strong Contendor is 35-1 ( or 3% ) to win a Grade 1 this year you don't understand the math IN THIS SITUATION even a little bit. You really don't understand how to look at this mathematically and the example you gave is WAY off course. Here's a SMALL part....if Strong Contendor ran in only two grade 1s, and was 20-1 in each, he would be under 10-1 to win a Grade 1 this year.

I tell you what.....ask Phil to explain it.