Sns??

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Strong Contender is more talented than Sir Greeley. Sorry, but he is...

He's more accomplished by winning some terrible 3yo restricted races but not more talented. Here are their last 7 equibase speed figures:

Strong Contender
113
111
102
97
99
97
83

Sir Greeley
125
108
110
110
111
96
113

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's more accomplished by winning some terrible 3yo restricted races but not more talented. Here are their last 7 equibase speed figures:

Strong Contender
113
111
102
97
99
97
83

Sir Greeley
125
108
110
110
111
96
113

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

I don't care what odds he goes off as, IMO, he is more talented than Sir Greeley. Overrated? YES, but definitely not a mule. SNS will take care of them both, either way... LOL.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Sir Greeley went off at 7/2 in the Met Mile. I'd like to see Strong Pretender go off at those odds.

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

I agree...

I can see SC improving this year... he's a big colt and I think that's tougher on a horse to overcome.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And he was eased.....proving PT Barnum was right once again.

He's a moderately talented allowance type. Strong Contendor has flashed signs of genuine ability, and he certainly has a bad trainer to overcome, but he may turn out to be a very nice horse. Sir Greeley is an above average allowance horse.

I'd say Sir Greeley is a legit G3 level horse in open company (having won 1 and run 2nd in another) that has also run 2nd in an open G1 and an open G2. I can't say the same for Strong Pretender who has only raced in 3yo restricted races so far and done nothing to impress me. The good thing is they'll get to prove themselves on the track on Saturday (hopefully). I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I'd say Sir Greeley is a legit G3 level horse in open company (having won 1 and run 2nd in another) that has also run 2nd in an open G1 and an open G2. I can't say the same for Strong Pretender who has only raced in 3yo restricted races so far and done nothing to impress me. The good thing is they'll get to prove themselves on the track on Saturday (hopefully). I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

He was second in the Grade 1 Carter....which had an ungraded field last year....but you know that.

Here's the point....if someone had a crystal ball and said I happen to know that either Sir Greeley OR Strong Contendor will be a Grade 1 winner in 2007, and there was wagering on this proposition, Strong Contendor would be 1:9. That is indisputable.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second in the Grade 1 Carter....which had an ungraded field last year....but you know that.

Here's the point....if someone had a crystal ball and said I happen to know that either Sir Greeley OR Strong Contendor will be a Grade 1 winner in 2007, and there was wagering on this proposition, Strong Contendor would be 1:9. That is indisputable.

I 'd love to take 1:9 on that. There are a limited number of G1 winners in route races in the older male division. Last year you had Invasor, Lava Man, Premium Tap, Seek Gold, and Brass Hat. That was it, five older males won a G1 routing. In the sprints you had Thor's Echo, Pure As Gold, Bordonaro, Bishop Court Hill, Siren Lure, Silver Train, and Pomeroy. So seven older horses won a G1 sprinting. Seek Gold is a rare case, typically you have to be very good to win a G1 routing in the older horse division while we know that G1 sprints are frequently won by less than G1 animals.

All I'm asking for is when Sir Greeley beats Strong Pretender on Saturday that all the Pretendermaniacs don't make excuses or go into hiding and acknowledge that they either underrated Sir Greeley, overrated Strong Pretender, or both.

[KirisClown]

Strog Contender should run a big one this weekend... the distance is ideal for him...

[blackthroatedwind]

I think you're missing my point....


Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.

Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know about Sir Greeley winning the race but he will finish ahead of Strong Pretender.

Originally Posted by Blackthroatedwind

Strong Contendor may not be the horse many have thought he is but he is far more talented than Sir Greeley.

Originally Posted by Cajungator

I don't care what odds he goes off as, IMO, he is more talented than Sir Greeley. Overrated? YES, but definitely not a mule. SNS will take care of them both, either way... LOL.

note to self: remember to post matchup odds this weekend between Strong Contender, Sir Greeley, and SNS.

--Dunbar