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#8
09-16-2020, 05:47 AM
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Tweeted this regarding finding horses like Timeless Rose, as it's typical of how Thoro-Graph helps identify potential plays.
Timeless Rose had made a small breakthrough to a 13 in her IN-bred win, a development pattern that frequently augers for more, significant improvement. Rather than show the sheets of the rest of the field, you can see by the Form Ratings (a measurement of the field's overall TG form), it was a very competitive that wasn't separated by much. Also note in the Thoro-Pattern, she was 65% likely to run a new top (22%) or at least pair up (43%). (Thoro-Patterns are measurements of cumulative previous sequences of efforts.. here, 3yo's in the 2nd half of the year with a pair, an off effort and return to a pair. So, 2 out of 3 times, horses that run that sequence produce a pair up or new top). Under that scenario, Timeless Rose felt like the right price key horse (8-1 ML and off at 9-1) because with that next step improvement, she was as good or better than those who were shorter numbers. And she cruised: https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRace...=20200915&RN=9  
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