Two at Toga

[theguarantee]

^Big chance for you to get above break even Moses...I was going to select Readyforprimetime myself but I'll pivot for the sake of some originality...saw exactly what you did though.

Wagered: $100.00
Returned: $132.10

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Lady Lilly - Obviously looks too slow on paper but I think the horse was actually short and won on class alone on debut. Clearly talented and worked OK with Sonneman coming out of the debut...I could be wrong but I feel Steve was targeting this all along for her and expecting a big step up today (which she'll need to take)...perhaps that figure is a bit low with Spun d'Tat subsequent start. Beautiful Memories may well just be too good for these but I want to make her prove it as that debut appears to have been against a really bad group...don't want to knock it too much since she dusted them and earned a nice fig...but that was 5F, she was pulled up subsequently and seems a bit of a headcase even watching works. Esplanade looks OK but those overnight stakes are glorified maiden races. Guana Cay is interesting but I still think may end up best on turf. Small field but one I think will be interesting to watch.

Best Value:Race 7 #1 Portofina - Showed speed against a pretty loaded field in Keeneland two back...totally collapsed late to be fair but maybe a better effort than it appears. I didn't love the ride Kendrick gave her in the last. Made a wild middle move that never works and I thought did enough running to give one more shot at a big price. The inside draw should help and hoping Reylu plays catch me if you can. Ultimately Chocolate Cookie, who can certainly win, ran no better than her last out and drew the 10 while she moves inside...low profile connections for Protofina ensures we should get a nice price.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Big chance for you to get above break even Moses...I was going to select Readyforprimetime myself but I'll pivot for the sake of some originality...saw exactly what you did though.

Wagered: $100.00
Returned: $132.10

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Lady Lilly - Obviously looks too slow on paper but I think the horse was actually short and won on class alone on debut. Clearly talented and worked OK with Sonneman coming out of the debut...I could be wrong but I feel Steve was targeting this all along for her and expecting a big step up today (which she'll need to take)...perhaps that figure is a bit low with Spun d'Tat subsequent start. Beautiful Memories may well just be too good for these but I want to make her prove it as that debut appears to have been against a really bad group...don't want to knock it too much since she dusted them and earned a nice fig...but that was 5F, she was pulled up subsequently and seems a bit of a headcase even watching works. Esplanade looks OK but those overnight stakes are glorified maiden races. Guana Cay is interesting but I still think may end up best on turf. Small field but one I think will be interesting to watch.

Best Value:Race 7 #1 Portofina - Showed speed against a pretty loaded field in Keeneland two back...totally collapsed late to be fair but maybe a better effort than it appears. I didn't love the ride Kendrick gave her in the last. Made a wild middle move that never works and I thought did enough running to give one more shot at a big price. The inside draw should help and hoping Reylu plays catch me if you can. Ultimately Chocolate Cookie, who can certainly win, ran no better than her last out and drew the 10 while she moves inside...low profile connections for Protofina ensures we should get a nice price.

Good luck.

Thanks. Good luck.

Agreed that Beautiful Memories may just be the best here but I like Lady Lilly as well. I didn’t look super closely at Race 7. I kinda liked your horse and the #3 Sweet Sneak as longshots but decided to avoid maiden races the next couple days.

[moses]

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

Fun fact, the loonies in Boston just changed the name of Dudley Square to Nubian Square this year. Don’t get off at a Dudley is no longer a saying.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $108.00
Returned: $132.10

Lady Lilly had every chance but didn't take enough of the necessary move forward. Portofina ran an OK 4th at 23/1 and I thought Reylu cost the horse what should've been a third, no matter for this exercise anyway though.

Best Bet: Race 8 #2 Largent - I could be wrong especially being lone speed but I'm guessing Breaking the Rules and one or both of the Chad horses will take enough money to get every bit of the ML, hopefully more. While this one hasn't matched some of the top efforts from a few in here I think today could be the day. Shug obviously seems to have BTR in raging form but we'll see if he can repeat. In the end I love Largent's cruising speed and ability to accelerate into another gear in the lane when asked. Being lone speed I fully trust Luis to nurse along and time his move perfectly today.

Best Value: Race 11 #4 Bail Out - May well go down as my worst pick ever and right on the heels of being critical about a Reylu turf ride I'll give him another shot here for a trainer who is 0/39 this year entering a maiden in an allowance...with that said Mystery Bank will be one of the top betting choices in here I would think and I kept looking through this field and I just don't see much to latch onto. This horse fits on Beyers, took much the worst of it trip wise from Mystery Bank last out (was begging for running room throughout, took a brutal bump mid-race, got boxed up when Reylu waited too long to make his move and while it did open up for him in the stretch it was too late and still never got fully in the clear).

Good luck to everyone on closing day.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

Dudley Square ran a respectable but distant 3rd. Stare Decisis was a terrible “best bet.”

Final results:

Best bets: $80.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $80.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $160.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

All in all, not that disappointed in the results. There were a few days where I missed out on some decent winners. I’d definitely do things differently next time. Thanks to Dahoss for the idea. Still have a lot to learn.