everyone on here is smarter then me

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

but could someone explain this to me
please go to wbine 10th today and pleasetell me why the 5 afleet katherine would take him outside instead of just waiting [as the winner did] and wait for the rai; to open? please what is the valid xcuse for this move
thank you

Okay, I'll take a stab at it...

You are looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. In that Woodbine race, the rail opened up for the winner. Was it guaranteed that the rail would open? In situations like that the rider has to guess whether the rail will open. If the rider's right, it's a great ride and the rider was smart. If the rider's wrong, he or she is an idiot for staying inside.

Aren't there almost as many times when a rider is faulted for letting the horse get bottled up inside when there was a clear path outside?

Maybe some riders can guess the outcome better than others, but IMO there's also some amount of luck involved in making that decision.