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#1
08-10-2020, 07:03 PM
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I’ll be honest, my first reaction when I saw the Travers was “wow, who is beating him”...that was incredible.
That WOW aside, and granting that it will take a big performance to beat him, my heart is still with Honor A.P....and so is my brain. I’ve been a huge fan of his since his debut, and up until the Shared Belief, he’d done nothing wrong. I thought he would win that race even at 85%, but what I feared would happen based on his works happened ..Shirreffs undertrained him and he was dull. He wasn’t as eager to run on in his works as he usually was, and I think it’s because he hadn’t been asked for any speed at all. I’ve seen him train, he’s always fighting to go faster. Anyway, he was undertrained and then got banged at the start. I actually think the figures don’t tell the story - I don’t think he ran that well despite the race coming up fast. I do think it’s encouraging that he didn’t give up....hey, you take the positive where you can find it. I think HAP will thrive at 1 1/4. I do understand anyone thinking Tiz is unbeatable, but I don’t get why all of a sudden Honor A.P. is yesterday’s news while Art Collector is all the rage. I love AC, this has nothing against him....I just personally think Honor A.P. is better than him, and it’s not that close. 
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#2
08-10-2020, 08:15 PM
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And all that ignores the fact that not too many horses are able to alter their running style (and still be effective) at the whim of the rider, especially if we are talking about a scion of the plodding A.P. Indy line. In his earlier races, Honor A.P. settled mid-pack and then launched a bid at the 3/16ths pole. This ability to accelerate on the turn is what separates him from most of A.P. Indy descendants and puts him near the top of his 3yo class. Unfortunately, Smith blunted all that by moving early AND wide, getting caught up in a battle of position w/ Cezanne down the backstretch so that Honor A.P. never settled, then trying to launch another wide sweep earlier on the far turn (3/8s pole) from where the colt normally makes his move. To add insult to injury, Smith had the audacity to suggest that Shirreffs trained the horse poorly for the race and that if the COVID pandemic hadn't transpired he could have personally trained the colt in his workouts. Hopefully the horse didn't bust a gut continuing with courage through the stretch despite basically being asked to make a sustained 6-furlong move. Maybe A.P. Indy's rider Eddie D. can come out of retirement and show Smith how it is done. Quote:
From a form standpoint, Honor A.P. beat Rushie by 4 at SA, while Art Collector beat the same horse by 8 at Keeneland. Honor A.P. beat Anneau d'Or by 5 at SA, while Art Collector beat the same horse by 14 at Ellis.
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#3
08-10-2020, 08:57 PM
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Rollo do you give any credence to the theory that Honor AP just wasn’t fully cranked for the Shared Belief? And Shirreffs knows how to get a horse ready for the ultimate goal and will have him 100% (or as close as he can be) come Derby Day?
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#4
08-10-2020, 09:25 PM
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#5
08-10-2020, 09:39 PM
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After the race he apparently drank the Mike Smith Kool-Aid and made some nebulous comments that horses know the difference between an exercise rider and a jockey in the morning. Not sure I buy into that, but certainly jockeys tend to work horses faster than the regular exercise riders (usually to the detriment of the horse) probably because they are interested in knowing how "good" a horse is as opposed to trying to help achieve a trainer's conditioning goals. As far as Shirreffs knowing how to get a horse ready for the big event, not sure I buy that either. He won the Derby with Giacomo on his own admission because Smith told him to press on with the colt despite a losing streak. What else has he won where his horse clearly progressed perfectly to a big race? This year Midcourt was over the top come Big Cap day, Hard Not To Love has tailed off completely since stepping up in trip, and his other 2 SA Derby winners (Tiago, Gormley) were also-rans in the classics. At any rate, even if he was trying to "give a race" to Honor A.P.--which would have been the wise move considering he was already in the KY Derby on points and the 4-horse field and pace scenario went against the colt's running style--Smith completely ruined it by trying to turn the race on its ear after the opening furlong. I'd be more worried about Honor A.P. taking a step backwards than believing he will improve off the effort. The horse basically showed that without his well-timed, patented turn move, he is nothing more than a common grinder. The conditions of the Derby (large field, strong pace, extra furlong) will help him, but I don't think his connections do him any favors.
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#6
08-10-2020, 10:23 PM
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I can’t argue with much of that, but I think he’s a very good trainer. They made a mistake thinking Hard Not to Love wants a route and Midcourt bounced back pretty well a few weeks ago.
Honor AP just seemed short to me and obviously the ride did him no favors. Betting wise, the effort in the Shared Belief should provide a much better price come Derby Day than if he romped. Although if the Tiz the Law that ran Saturday shows up with the same effort Derby Day they are all running for 2nd.
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#7
08-10-2020, 10:25 PM
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Off topic but highly entertaining watching one of Venetian Harbor’s owner have a two day meltdown on Twitter accusing Rosario, Ron Anderson and Baffert of colluding to not go after Gamine early.
I thought it was a s.hit ride but I’ve also seen Rosario do stuff like that a lot.
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#8
08-10-2020, 10:56 PM
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Both those filly's look like run-offs that refuse to settle. If Rosario let go of his hammerlock all that would have been accomplished was probably an early end to Venetian Harbor's season and possibly Baffert having a rethink for Gamine by targeting the BC FM Sprint rather than the KY Oaks/BC Distaff. At least now they can try another Venetian Harbor reboot by tossing her into a turf race...preferably a Grade 3 and not the Garden City or Queen Elizabeth.
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