Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)

[Easy Goer Otis]

MSW to G1:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%.

Avg Odds: 21.70
Avg Odds winners: 4.76
Avg finish: 4.38

Highest priced winners:

Sippican Harbor (16-1)
Mind Control (10-1)
Maxfield (6-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80)
S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10)
Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20)

MSW to G3:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%.

Avg Odds: 21.60
Avg Odds winners: 3.45
Avg finish: 4.83

Highest priced winners:

Cairo Cat (17-1)
Independence Hall (10-1)
Lombo (9-1)
Max Player (5-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00)
Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40)


While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months.

Cheers,

Otis

[Kasept]

Otis.. The one question to ask in this is how much are simply extensions of the trainers normal production? After all, there are few (ALW) options any more other than Graded Stakes with 2yo and early season 3yo MSW winners.

[Easy Goer Otis]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Otis.. The one question to ask in this is how much are simply extensions of the trainers normal production? After all, there are few (ALW) options any more other than Graded Stakes with 2yo and early season 3yo MSW winners.

Yes, absolutely. There is definitely a "seasonality" to this angle and we are nearing the end of it until the 2yos this autumn.

Some trainers are definitely more successful than others making this move. Chad, Baffert, Mott, Romans, Hollendorfer, Cox, Calhoun, McPeek win MSW to GS at 20+% clip. On the flip side, TAP has gone 0 for last 16 and O'Neill 1 for 20.

Cheers,

O

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

MSW to G1:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%.

Avg Odds: 21.70
Avg Odds winners: 4.76
Avg finish: 4.38

Highest priced winners:

Sippican Harbor (16-1)
Mind Control (10-1)
Maxfield (6-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80)
S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10)
Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20)

MSW to G3:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%.

Avg Odds: 21.60
Avg Odds winners: 3.45
Avg finish: 4.83

Highest priced winners:

Cairo Cat (17-1)
Independence Hall (10-1)
Lombo (9-1)
Max Player (5-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00)
Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40)


While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months.

Cheers,

Otis

Thanks a bunch for posting the additional info!

I was hoping for something more promising than a -39% ROI for the Grade 3's. It's a fine line between G2 and G3. While it's possible there's something special about MSW-to-G2 that doesn't apply to MSW-to-G3 or MSW-to-G1, the complete lack of success with those moves makes it seem likely that the MSW-to-G2 result is a temporary aberration.

Thanks again for posting it.

Dunbar

[Easy Goer Otis]

Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.

But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years.

Cheers,

Otis

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

...But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

...

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

btw, thanks for mentioning the Betmix Angler app. I'm embarrassed to admit that I wasn't aware of it.

Dunbar

[Easy Goer Otis]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

You are correct, sir! Extremely similar. For 2015-2017:

Win %: 12.05% vs 12.43%
ROI: -37% vs -36%
AVG odds of winners were both a shade over 4-1 for that period.

How about MSW to Non-Graded Stakes since 2015?

Win %: 546 out of 4,641 11.67%
ROI: -23%
AVG Odds Winners: 5.56

Highest Odds Winners:

Zapit 94-1 in Oklahoma Lassie at RP 10/2019 (Tim Martin)
Black Nova 77-1 in Hoosier Sophomore Stakes at IND 6/2018 (Ron Brown)
Freakonthelead 71-1 in Pelican Stakes at DED 1/2017 (S. Flint)
Starling 67-1 in Oklahoma Juvenile at RP 10/2018 (Megan Houser)
Academic 67-1 in Woodbine Oaks at WO 6/2015 (Reade Baker)

Note: All of the aforementioned races were restricted to state-breds. The list of double-digit winners for this angle are almost entirely comprised of winners of restricted races. The app doesn't let me run a report for restricted races only, so I can't give you exact numbers, but clearly it seems more productive to fish in the state-bred stake pools for this angle.

Top trainers for MSW to Non-Graded Stakes:

Asmussen: 23 wins, 21% win rate, ROI -18%
Pletcher: 13 wins, 23%, ROI: -38%
Casse: 12 wins, 15%, ROI: -53%
Fincher: 11 wins, 18%, ROI: -40%
Wes Ward: 10 wins, 37%, ROI: +100%
Baffert: 10 wins, 48%, ROI: +36%
J. Englehart: 8 wins, 33%, ROI: +103%
O'Neill: 7 wins, 18%, ROI: +17%
John Servis: 7 wins, 33%, ROI: +31%

Wes Ward and Jeremiah Englehart both over 100% ROI with this move.

Also interesting that MSW to Non-Graded Stake is a profitable move at Saratoga over the past five years, winning 12 out of 55 times (22%) and an ROI of +37%.

Cheers,

Otis

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the additional figs, Otis. The fact that the 2015-2017 MSW-to-Gr2 stats aren't consistent with the 2018-2020 stats makes it even more likely that those latter good results were an aberration.

The other stuff is interesting, but hard to make use of. With just 2-3 races per year fitting the positive EV angles, it's too hard to test going forward.

I can tell you're having fun with the app. Keep looking! You might find a hidden gem.