2020 Kentucky Derby contender watch

[richard burch]

...We’re only 6 months away from the Derby


6 months is an eternity in horse racing but bless them all.

[moses]

Originally Posted by richard burch

...We’re only 6 months away from the Derby


6 months is an eternity in horse racing but bless them all.

I was trying to be tongue-in-cheek but I guess it doesn’t always convey over the Internet.

[moses]

I was hoping to add a few more names to the list after the last few weeks...but I'm not sure anyone has stood out.

A few names I didn't previously include:

Dennis' Moment - Winner of the Iroquois Stakes. Only 2YO with a 90+ Beyer for a race over 1 mile. Absolutely destroyed the field when breaking his maiden. That field included Sounion who just broke his maiden with a solid 75 Beyer. Can forgive his performance at the Breeders Cup.

Scabbard - I thought his trip in the Iroquois was compromised but he still finished well. It's possible he didn't like the track at Breeders Cup. He's worth keeping an eye on.

Forza di Oro - Sired by Speightstown, you probably won't see this horse listed on many people's contender list...but his maiden win was really impressive as he altered out behind a wall of horses and then kicked it into gear. I think he wins the Remsen if he enters.

[blackthroatedwind]

He's supposed to run in the Remsen. I agree that he's interesting. It would be funny if Mott trained the horse that actually finished first in this year's Derby.

Personally, I think Dennis' Moment should be favored. His BC was meaningless. While Tiz the Law lost nothing in defeat in my opinion, I still think he's less likely to win the Derby than Dennis' Moment. I also think the Derby favorite is no better than 30:1, and anyone taking a significantly lesser price on any horse is foolish.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's supposed to run in the Remsen. I agree that he's interesting. It would be funny if Mott trained the horse that actually finished first in this year's Derby.

Personally, I think Dennis' Moment should be favored. His BC was meaningless. While Tiz the Law lost nothing in defeat in my opinion, I still think he's less likely to win the Derby than Dennis' Moment. I also think the Derby favorite is no better than 30:1, and anyone taking a significantly lesser price on any horse is foolish.

I’d love that for Mott. It would provide a bit of redemption for him. He got a lot of unwarranted hate about the Derby disqualification.

For me, I’ve got Independence Hall at the top of my list but really want to see him replicate that around two turns. After that, it’s probably Dennis’ Moment and Tiz the Law. I’ve got a feeling that we could have a new favorite after the Los Al Futurity. Every horse in that race seems to have great potential and if any of them win convincingly then we’ll see the hype train start rolling. That should be a tremendous race.

As far as future wagers, they’re generally foolish bets but the gambler in me can’t pass up big odds on a horse that I like. I put some money on Green Light Go at 46-1 but even that seems like bad value given that he’s got a lot of question marks.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I was hoping to add a few more names to the list after the last few weeks...but I'm not sure anyone has stood out.

A few names I didn't previously include:

Dennis' Moment - Winner of the Iroquois Stakes. Only 2YO with a 90+ Beyer for a race over 1 mile. Absolutely destroyed the field when breaking his maiden. That field included Sounion who just broke his maiden with a solid 75 Beyer. Can forgive his performance at the Breeders Cup.

Scabbard - I thought his trip in the Iroquois was compromised but he still finished well. It's possible he didn't like the track at Breeders Cup. He's worth keeping an eye on.

Forza di Oro - Sired by Speightstown, you probably won't see this horse listed on many people's contender list...but his maiden win was really impressive as he altered out behind a wall of horses and then kicked it into gear. I think he wins the Remsen if he enters.

Perhaps it was premature for me to add Forza di Oro. He took a lot of kickback in the Remsen, which has not boded well for horses at Aqueduct lately, but he just didn’t have anything to offer for the better horses in that race.

I thought the top 3 finishers in the Springboard Mile ran fairly well - Shoplifted, Answer In, and Embolden. Worth keeping an eye on them.

I’m a little hesitant about Khozan colts...but Untitled looked very good in his debut this weekend at Gulfstream. And of course Anneau d’Or and Thousand Words looked good in the Los Al a couple weeks ago.

It feels like everyone...or maybe it’s just me...is waiting for January 1 to see Independence Hall run in the Jerome.

[wild barry]

I am very interested in offspring of Khozan. Don not follow south Fla. until the winter. Never heard of the first crop sire Khozan until a couple of weeks ago. Big fan of Distorted Humor bloodline both sire and broodmare sire. I do not remember who trained Khozan. I would think probably Pletcher or Mclaughlin trained the horse. Krozan only made 2 starts and won both @7F and ! mile. Won by open lengths both starts. I am sure I wagered on him if he was any kind of price. The dam of Krozan Delta princess dropped Royal Delta(3 time champ) and Delta Prince (grade 1W). Horse stood for 4K now 8500. I would think his offspring would relish 2 turns. He probably was booked to less than stellar mares to breed to. If I could get a future book bet on sire winning the derby I would donate a few bucks.

[moses]

Originally Posted by wild barry

I am very interested in offspring of Khozan. Don not follow south Fla. until the winter. Never heard of the first crop sire Khozan until a couple of weeks ago. Big fan of Distorted Humor bloodline both sire and broodmare sire. I do not remember who trained Khozan. I would think probably Pletcher or Mclaughlin trained the horse. Krozan only made 2 starts and won both @7F and ! mile. Won by open lengths both starts. I am sure I wagered on him if he was any kind of price. The dam of Krozan Delta princess dropped Royal Delta(3 time champ) and Delta Prince (grade 1W). Horse stood for 4K now 8500. I would think his offspring would relish 2 turns. He probably was booked to less than stellar mares to breed to. If I could get a future book bet on sire winning the derby I would donate a few bucks.

Oh yeah. I’m interested, just hesitant. Untitled looked great.

[moses]

Old news but Untitled has been purchased privately and is heading to the Casse barn. I wonder who bought him. Seems like something Gary Barber might do?