Belmont Day Picks

[theguarantee]

Hope Outshine can get this done and then we can beat some chalk...won't be easy particularly on the second portion but we'll see...

The Woody Stephens: Thanks for the push on Much Better who I kind of similarly really liked but kept waffling on. Respect the opinion enough to move him in as an A along with my main two: Honest Mischief (who I think will go favored, even over Mind Control, we'll see) and Wendell Fong. I think WF is sneaky in here, this horse is game as you like and although maybe he's a bit slow for these he really had to earn that victory at Laurel and I think he won in spite of the slop not because of it last time...if things heat up on the front, and I think they will, maybe he comes calling late. I get his credentials but for better or worse I'm just way against Mind Control and everyone else can beat me.

The Met: Tricky race in the sense that outside Tale of Silence there are things to like about everyone, but it could very well just be that McKinzie is the best and the winner...reminds me a bit of the year Palace Malice won...that said I neither trust nor would ever toss Firenze Fire who, if he fires a big one might be the most likely to beat the good McKinzie. Perhaps I'm way off but I just don't like Mitole at all here. He's going to have to stretch out to yet another panel and I just don't think he's as likely a winner as the price indicates. Coal Front, McKinzie, Firenze and Prince Lucky are all preferences and I think even Thunder Snow is as likely....incredibly tough race I'm still looking to finalize A/B/C structure.

Manhattan: Bricks and Mortar has won me over for sure but I basically have a contract with Robert Bruce who I still believe should've won this race last year. His excuses since are well documented and I just think he's a very logical alternative. I want Olympico more than Raging Bull in here and tose are my main three. If I can narrow the Met more maybe I can get the 4,5 and 9 in as backups.

Belmont: I get that he's an underlay at his odds with the figures and expected price, etc but I just think he is far and away the most likely winner in here. He basically has every factor I would want in his favor and I think his trip in the Kentucky Derby is (actually) being severely underrated by most. Things just really did not work out for him in there and though it was subtle he really took the worst of it/never really getting a chance to run until it was too late. Spinoff and Sir Winston are my other two. I can't add much that others haven't but I really thought Sir Winston was motoring, not just passing tired horses, in the PP and I'm so much more inspired by his run there than the Everfast/Master Fencer runs that I'll key him in all the slots of the tri and super with confidence that Rosario will find a way to hit the board.

12th: I liked Mr Maybe's return and ideally would use all of the 3,4 and 7...tough race though

Brooklyn: I like too many in here but I think I've decided to try to beat You're to Blame which puts me on Marconi, Campaign, War Story and Rocketry and I've had a very hard time separating those four.