A Question concerning Belmont ROI

[RUFFIAN]

TIZ WAY OVER THIS CAT HEAD

I SHALL PURRRRCEED WITH MY USUAL WIN BETS

[Real Quiet]

If I had to break down 972 combinations including scratches I think El Prado would have to send me all the coffee in Columbia.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If I had to break down 972 combinations including scratches I think El Prado would have to send me all the coffee in Columbia.

Well, there wouldn't be 972 individual tickets, probably only 1 or 2. Kind of like scoring a pick 4, only with 2 more legs. However, your point about scratches is very well taken, since you don't know when you make the bet on Friday which horses on the Saturday segments will be scratched. There could be many more scratches than usual, and they require the scorer to figure out who was the PTF. That can be a genuine nuisance for the scorer.

All in all, there seem to be a number of good reasons not to include this wager in our menu. Thanks for the reactions.

[Real Quiet]

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

OK Pete, I'll keep that in mind. I need to do some serious 'capping before deciding whether to plunk some $$ down on an ADW account, but it could be a useful exercise just to put a ticket (or two) together. I know that I'll have some difficulty with the Gold Cup, because I have a strong rooting interest in Red Knight, but think that he will be facing a severe class test no matter how much he may love the distance.

[DonGuido]

Well, our rules say we can play any wager that you would play at a track window of OTB. That means Joly's thoughts on playing this wager are acceptable. That said, I will yield to RQ who I believe has expressed slight consternation in taking this on. Correct me if I'm wrong, but few if any would venture into such a mind bending bet. Thus, I take it we will not officially be accepting the NYRA Festival Pick 6 wager. You can go back to sleep now RQ if you like!

[Real Quiet]

Well Don. I will correct you. You are wrong. I did not express consternation about the wager. To me it makes little difference on scoring wagers. I have an App to help me when I run into problems scoring difficult wagers. It is available on Google Play and is called a Joly / Cal culator and so far has answered all my
queries when I get stuck.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

All I can say is, this is why I call you the professor. Good luck but are playing this with real money? If you nail it and you didn't you'll be kicking yourself all the way to Boston and back.

[cal828]

Here is my stab at it and no I'm not playing for real either and not my entry in this week's contest.

3,7,8//4,6,8,9//1,4,9//2,3,9//8//6,7,8,9,10=$108

3,7,8//4,6,7,9//2,4,9//2,3,9//8//5,6,7,10=$86.40

[JolyB]

I know what you mean, Don Guido. But, I tried to keep this play within our $200 ROI limit just to see how it would work. I'm not entirely comfortable that I have enough coverage to have a good level of confidence. On the other hand, I went 5 deep in the Woody Stephens, and am sure that there are many good handicappers who would be looking at Mind Control as a single. If Mind Control does win, it would dramatically reduce the overall payoff and make me feel very foolish for including such coverage. The multi leg wagers are challenges, but they sure can cause you to second guess yourself.

And all of this is without knowing what the scratches are going to be.