5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Oaks Day ~ 1st/4th off the turf..

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by jms62

I relish these opportunities... Will include the favorite with one or 2 long shots and if she doesn't fire you are competing for a LARGE Pick 3, 4, 5.... Horses are not machines...

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

[jms62]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

That’s what I’m talking about. I’m not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by cakes44

That’s what I’m talking about. I’m not a horizontal guy in general, but this is good sh!t.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

Holy cow. I didn’t remember the pick 5 being that large. Good old Funny Duck.

Anyway, good stuff. I love hearing stuff like this. I’ve been pretty good hitting Pick 3s but I struggle tremendously with the Pick 4 and 5...which I guess is sort of the point.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by jms62

See that is what everyone is doing and leads you to a lot of chalky payouts and exits in situations that you want to be alive (Heavy Favorite Beat). Skinny for may be 2 deep in another leg where I really like a horse (usually not favorite). Or in the case of the Derby I may choose to make my Stand in the Derby and single there. Look at Pick 5 last year into Derby Favorite $620,827.65... You don't get a shot at a number like that when your single is an overwhelming odds on favorite... Now of course I will have a backup ticket where I might single that Odds on favorite along with my other "skinny" and get deeper in a race like the derby but that ticket will be much cheaper and basically it is a get out...

If Im reading between the lines correctly, I like your philosophy

[declansharbor]

WOW — Reports on Twitter have Omaha Beach as OUT for the Kentucky Derby. Tough one for Mandella and connections! Ouch!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i agree with that logic about adding a few prices if the chalk runs up the track, but then where do you get skinny? At least for me, the whole point of singling is so i can cast a wider net in the remaining sequence.

-bt-

I've been trying more often to go skinny with races I don't like the favorite. Like for the Oaks I really like Restless Rider and think Bellafina cant be beat here. I will either single that one or add Jaywalk but wont be covering Bellafina. Risk/reward

[cakes44]

I definitely think it's worth trying to beat Bellafina.