5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[knickslions2]

Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!

[tector]

1-War of Will (War Front), Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1
2-Tax (Arch), Danny Gargan, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
3-By My Standards (Goldencents), Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 20-1
4-Gray Magician (Graydar), Peter Miller, Drayden Van Dyke, 50-1
5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
6-Vekoma (Candy Ride), George Weaver, Javier Castellano, 20-1
7-Maximum Security (New Year's Day), Jason Servis, Luis Saez, 10-1
8-Tacitus (Tapit) , William Mott, Jose Ortiz, 10-1
9-Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry), Brandan Walsh, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
10-Cutting Humor (First Samurai), Todd Pletcher, Corey Lanerie, 30-1
11-Haikal (Daaher), Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
12-Omaha Beach (War Front), Richard Mandella, Mike Smith, 4-1
13-Code of Honor (Noble Mission), Shug McGaughey, John Velazquez, 15-1
14-Win Win Win (Hat Trick), Michael Trombetta, Julian Pimentel, 15-1
15-Master Fencer (Just a Way), Koichi Tsunoda, 50-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1
18-Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), Steve Asmussen, Jon Court, 30-1
19-Spinoff (Hard Spun), Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 30-1
20-Country House (Lookin At Lucky), William Mott, Flavien Prat, 30-1

[cal828]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Post positions seem fair for most. Time to get to work!!

Interesting that Baffert gets the 17 post for Roadster. Every year it seems that there is some historical precedent or "curse" to overcome like the unraced at 2 curse or the curse of the BC Juvenile winner or the NY Bred curse or some such. Maybe this year's curse is the 17 hole curse which I think is the only post that has not produced a winner. I don't particularly like Roadster or dislike him, but as we all know, it's hazardous to your financial health to leave Baffert or Pletcher or Chad Brown(Thank God he doesn't have 2 or 3 in this race) out of your picks.

[Kasept]

Overnight: https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqb...C-CD-20190504D

[moses]

I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

[MichiganMattA]

The way Roadster popped the gate in his work on 4/20 makes me think Bob has a plan. We'll see how far he can go.

[philcski]

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

[richard burch]

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,8,11,16,17


looks like rain on Saturday....

SAT
MAY 4
Rain
66°53°
100%
NNE 10 mph 82%

[Alabama Stakes]

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

I was thinking it had more to do with casual bettors liking the name Win Win Win.

Vekoma’s Derby day odds wont have any impact on my betting strategy as I’ve got enough on him in Pool 1 & 3 at nearly twice the price. Unless he really gets no respect and floats up toward 30-1 and then maybe I’ll put some more on him.

I will probably put a win bet on Tacitus or Improbable but most of my money will go toward a trifecta bet and possibly some horizontals but still haven’t looked at the rest of the card.

[Alabama Stakes]

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.