2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

My opinion Ohama Beach may be pace compromised and Roadster would have best chance...

If there is a contested pace and things fall apart, I don’t think Roadster is the most likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think he likes getting dirt in his face and it wasn’t until he dropped back and then swung wide that he really started to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s unlikely he’ll have the space to do that in a 20-horse field. And I’m still not certain that questions about his medical issues have been fully resolved. I’m looking at Tacitus and Code of Honor if the pace is right.

Just my opinion, but Roadster is ranked 3rd for me of the Baffert horses and probably somewhere in the 8-15 range in the overall Derby field.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

If there is a contested pace and things fall apart, I don’t think Roadster is the most likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think he likes getting dirt in his face and it wasn’t until he dropped back and then swung wide that he really started to run in the Santa Anita Derby. It’s unlikely he’ll have the space to do that in a 20-horse field. And I’m still not certain that questions about his medical issues have been fully resolved. I’m looking at Tacitus and Code of Honor if the pace is right.

Just my opinion, but Roadster is ranked 3rd for me of the Baffert horses and probably somewhere in the 8-15 range in the overall Derby field.

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

He could be the best of the 3. I’m not sure about him being the best by far. He beat Game Winner by 1/2 a length and Game Winner was wide the entire race.

When it comes down to it, I’m just not a fan of horses in the Derby who plan to stalk but only have experience in small fields. His one saving grace for me will be if Smith decides to stay on him. Then I’ll really have to reconsider things.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I think Roadster is by far the best of the Baffert 3. I dont think the other ones have any chance to be honest. Omaha Beach has run well last two races but Roadster seems to have a huge upside. Tough decision for Mike Smith.

I’m starting to come around on Roadster. But I’m still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m starting to come around on Roadster. But I’m still having a heck of a time figuring out this race.

The draw will help

[Kasept]

Corey Lanerie gets on Cutting Humor..

[moses]

Looking a little bit into horses with 4 or fewer starts. Just looked into the last 10 years but was interested to see the the trainers for those horses. If I went back 11 years, the numbers would actually look better for lightly raced horses since Big Brown and Denis of Cork both finished in the money in 2008.

Pletcher: 9 starts, 1 finish in Top 5 (Danza in 2014)
Baffert: 4 starts, 2 finishes in Top 5 (Justify in 2018, Bodemeister in 2012)
Brown: 2 starts, 0 finishes in Top 5 (My Man Sam finished 11th, Shagaf DNF in 2016)
Motion: 1 start, 1 Winner (Animal Kingdom in 2011)
Hollendorfer: 1 start, 1 finish in Top 5 (Battle of Midway in 2017)
Sharp: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Girvin finished 13th in 2017)
Mott: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Hofburg finished 7th in 2018)
Zito: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Dialed In finished 8th in 2011)
Ice: 1 start, 0 finishes in Top 5 (Summer Bird finished 17th in 2009)

For Pletcher, Noble Indy finished 17th, Magnum Moon 19th, Patch 14th, Outwork 14th, Materiality 6th, Itsaknockout 9th, Verrazano 14th, Dunkirk 15th. Baffert’s other horses in that time frame were Chitu who finished 9th in 2014 and Midnight Interlude, 16th in 2011.

Anyway, for trainers not named Pletcher, they’ve got a record of 12-2-1-1, which is 17% win, 33% ITM. All-time, Baffert has a Derby record of 28-5-3-3, which is 18% win, 39% ITM.

I guess my thought is - is the fact that a horse has 4 or fewer starts really that big of a negative for them? It’s not exactly fair to just throw out Pletcher’s starters but he also sends a lot of lightly raced horses to the derby and he’s clearly skewing the numbers in recent years.

[Holybull1]

Bovada as of 4/16/2019:

Roadster 5
Omaha Beach 5.5
Game Winner 6
Improbable 8
Maximum Security 10
Tacitus 12
Vekoma 12
Code of Honor 14
Cutting Humor 20
Bourbon War 22
War of Will 22
Win Win Win 22
Anothertwistafate 25
By My Standards 25
Haikal 25
Long Range Toddy 25
Plus Que Parfait 25
Tax 25
Bodexpress 28
Country House 33
Spinoff 33
Signalman 40
Master Fencer 66
Sueno 66