2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[moses]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

He likely won’t be my selection but I can’t exclude him from consideration. The pedigree looks like he could have challenges with the distance...but almost every horse in the race has a question mark surrounding them.

[Kasept]

5/4 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Tacitus 150 (Mott/J. Ortiz) $610,000
2. Omaha Beach 137.5 (Mandella/Smith) $1,050,000
3. Vekoma 110 (Weaver/Castellano) $747,600
4. Plus Que Parfait 104 (Walsh/R. Santana) $1,540,400
5. Roadster 100 (Baffert/Geroux) $636,000
6. By My Standards 100 (Calhoun/G. Saez) $600,000
7. Maximum Security 100 (Ja. Servis/L. Saez) $582,800
8. Game Winner 85 (Baffert/Rosario) $1,810,000
9. Code of Honor 74 (McGaughey/Velazquez) $432,070
10. Haikal 70 (McLaughlin/Maragh) $322,500
11. Improbable 65 (Baffert/I. Ortiz) $589,520
12. War of Will 60 (Casse/Gaffalione) $450,840
13. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) $830,000
14. Tax 52 (Gargan/Alvarado) $307,500
15. Cutting Humor 50 (Pletcher/TBA) $462,467
16. Win Win Win 50 (Trombetta/Pimental) $316,000
17. Country House 50 (Mott/TBA) $220,000
18. Gray Magician 41 (Miller/TBA) $526,000
19. Spinoff 40 (Pletcher/M. Franco) $224,000
20. JPN-Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) N/A
--------------------------
21. Bodexpress 40 (Delgado/Juarez) $188,000
22. Signalman 38 (McPeek) $496,840
23. Anothertwistafate 38 (Wright) $268,960
24. Sueno 32 (Desormeaux) $285,000
25. Bourbon War 31 (Hennig) $137,200
26. Instagrand 30 (Hollendorfer) $276,000

[Alabama Stakes]

I doubt War of Will is gonna run in the derby. Signalman should be looking at other options too.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I doubt War of Will is gonna run in the derby. Signalman should be looking at other options too.

On one of the ATRs this week, Steve indicated that Casse was still pointing toward the derby with WOW. I guess we’ll see.

[Kasept]

WAR OF WILL (4/13)

(If concerned about his status, watch his :59 bullet at KEE this morning.. Note his extended gallop out to over a mile)

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Kasept

WAR OF WILL (4/13)

(If concerned about his status, watch his :59 bullet at KEE this morning.. Note his extended gallop out to over a mile)

Is that work supposed to be encouraging? He looks uneasy and trying hard.

[tector]

Could have some interesting new shooters in the Preakness. Owendale looked good today. And I'd like to see Bourbon War in a genuine race.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Is that work supposed to be encouraging? He looks uneasy and trying hard.

Oy vey. First, it shows that he’s 100% sound. And he’s wasn’t ‘uneasy’ at all, nor was he asked for anything by Gaffallione.

[moses]

Originally Posted by tector

Could have some interesting new shooters in the Preakness. Owendale looked good today. And I'd like to see Bourbon War in a genuine race.

I’m skeptical of the overall talent level in the Lexington. Owendale ran a nice race but none of the horses close to a pretty modest pace were able to finish particularly well.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Oy vey. First, it shows that he’s 100% sound. And he’s wasn’t ‘uneasy’ at all, nor was he asked for anything by Gaffallione.

I've never been a big fan and tried beating him when hes been short prices, but he could be a use now at around 20-1.

[Kasept]

Jose Ortiz takes the Derby call on Tacitus..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

BY MY STANDARDS (4/11)

Thriving back home at Churchill. Scary good working on Thursday and didn't want to stop.

[LITF]

Thanks for posting, Steve. I like it!!

[moses]

Originally Posted by LITF

Thanks for posting, Steve. I like it!!

I know I responded and said I wouldn’t be betting him...and maybe I still won’t. But he looked good in that workout and I wonder if maybe he’s peaking at the right time. Going to go back and watch some more of his races.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

I know I responded and said I wouldn’t be betting him...and maybe I still won’t. But he looked good in that workout and I wonder if maybe he’s peaking at the right time. Going to go back and watch some more of his races.

Kind of feel like the LA Derby horses are headed toward Wise Guy status but hard not to kind of think they are sneaky IMO. I like them all a little, so far a bit inclined on Spin-off especially if JV maintains the faith

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Kind of feel like the LA Derby horses are headed toward Wise Guy status but hard not to kind of think they are sneaky IMO. I like them all a little, so far a bit inclined on Spin-off especially if JV maintains the faith

JV has a few options - Spinoff, Cutting Humor, Code of Honor. Will he spurn Pletcher for Shug? He didn’t do that in 2013 and Orb ended up winning the Kentucky derby that year.

Strangely enough, this could be another year similar to 2013. Orb was the favorite at above 5-1. I guess I could see Omaha Beach ending below 5-1 but so many people like the Baffert horses that those 3 are going to take a ton of money. And perhaps a horse, like Orb (or maybe Code of Honor), comes from off the pace.

[LITF]

Originally Posted by moses

I know I responded and said I wouldn’t be betting him...and maybe I still won’t. But he looked good in that workout and I wonder if maybe he’s peaking at the right time. Going to go back and watch some more of his races.

I’m not sure I’ll be playing him either but I keep liking him more and more. With the exception of maybe the Ark. Derby I haven’t seen too much that excites me this year.

I’m really interested to see how they bet this Derby. Right now, I’m guessing he will be 8th choice. That probably puts him around 15,20-1 range. That might be enough for me to use him someplace in the top 3. But we’ll see...still got three weeks to change my mind 100 times! Should be a fun derby.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Jose Ortiz takes the Derby call on Tacitus..

And Irad gets on Improbable

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

And Irad gets on Improbable

Pimental back on Win Win Win.. Leparoux gets the Japanese invader Master Fencer..

[Alabama Stakes]

Will money mike stick with the red and white of fox hill farm ? Or go for Roadster ?