2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[ScottJ]

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

[moses]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

If we could change one and only one event from this weekend, it would be to never open the latch for Joevia in the Wood Memorial. Nik Juarez should get multiple weeks for that reckless ride. His ride turned what could have been the most interesting Wood in two decades into roller derby on four hooves.

Yes, Tacitus did run down Tax fair-and-square while Haikal's closing punch into a 46 4/5 half was watered down going two turns. Horses like Final Jeopardy, Outshine, and Hoffa's Union did not get a fair shot. Tacitus might well have been best and Junior Alvarado's post-race fist bump with Jose Ortiz in their gallop-out pretty much says the same.

Makes you wonder what might have been Vekoma's fate if in the Wood as opposed to the Blue Grass. He might have kicked someone sideways!

Juarez was suspended 15 days and fined $2,500. The problem is, he normally rides in Florida and is already back there riding so the suspension is almost entirely symbolic.

[LITF]

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

[moses]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

He likely won’t be my selection but I can’t exclude him from consideration. The pedigree looks like he could have challenges with the distance...but almost every horse in the race has a question mark surrounding them.

[Kasept]

Florent Geroux gets Roadster; Manny Franco lands Spinoff..

Calls remain open on Cutting Humor (Pletcher), Country House (Mott) & Gray Magician (Miller)

[JBJake]

Think it is a bad move on Smith's part regardless of who he feels is the better horse. Maybe Baffert does not care and will still use him on all of his live mounts but seems like a big risk.

Didn't Martin Garcia piss off Mr Baffert once? How did that work out?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LITF

What are peoples thoughts on By My Standards? I originally wasn't all that impressed with the Louisiana Derby but as I've rewatched a few times I may be changing my mind. He seems like the horse that is (maybe) improving at the right time. And nothing I've watched subsequently has really peaked my interest. Maybe he is improving just enough to at the very least compete with a group that doesn't seem to have a real standout.

Not sure how he'll do at 10F but who knows? He seems to have the style that might fit the race flow and he should be a more than decent price...

BY MY STANDARDS (4/11)

Thriving back home at Churchill. Scary good working on Thursday and didn't want to stop.

[LITF]

Thanks for posting, Steve. I like it!!

[moses]

Originally Posted by LITF

Thanks for posting, Steve. I like it!!

I know I responded and said I wouldn’t be betting him...and maybe I still won’t. But he looked good in that workout and I wonder if maybe he’s peaking at the right time. Going to go back and watch some more of his races.