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#2
01-27-2019, 07:17 AM
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It's kind of funny how a player's perspective of a day's races is influenced by how he or she approached the betting. Many of yesterday's winners were favorites or co-favorites, yet there were some very unlikely longshots in the second or third slots.
If you were playing the horizontal exotics, you might have concluded that the day was fairly formful. The only price of any kind in the pick 6 was the La Prevoyante winner, and that was only about 7-1. The final pick 4 had a run of either first or second choices and paid accordingly. Yet, Cal correctly noted that those who were trying their luck with the vertical exotics needed to be either very creative or very fortunate to cash some of the tickets. In the third, the exacta was totally predictable, but the third place finisher was 66-1. In the 7th, the winner and third place finisher were contenders, but the second place finisher broke up a number of exactas and trifectas at 44-1. A trifecta player in the Hooper would have needed a crystal ball or an all button to include a 70-1 shot in the third slot after two of the top three contenders on top. And as Cal already bemoaned, Seeking the Soul split the top two choices in the finale at 34-1. A horizontal player left asking himself why he wasted money by going too deep in a pick 4. A vertical player either cashed a big ticket or tore up lots of smaller ones unless the play was very creative. It can be a very "funny" game to play. 
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#3
01-27-2019, 10:17 AM
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Well, to be honest, which is certainly necessary with yourself, if not to others, I don’t know whether I would have done any better had I played the horizontal plays. Maybe I would have in the doubles and pick 3s, but don’t know whether I would have hit the Pick 4 and congrats to you for doing so. When I saw that the racetrack was wet, I thought I didn’t want any part of those late turf races, but as you said, the winners were logical.
I think my imaginary play is very much influenced by my real play. I am a small bettor and as I said in another post, I can count on one hand the number of pick 3s and pick 4s that I have ever played for real. I am more comfortable playing exactas and trifectas and so that is what I usually do even with cyber dollars. And for a bit more honesty, the two long shots that I missed were not entirely illogical. The 44-1 shot in the 7th had run third in her last race after Dream Pauline, yesterday’s winner and Stormy Embrace, yesterdays 3rd place finisher. That one really snuck up on me, but Seeking the Soul was a little different. I agonized over what to do with him. I’m sure we’ve all been there before. I really didn’t like him on a wet track, but recognized that he had performed well at the distance in a Grade 1 race. I compromised by putting him third on my larger ticket. I could probable sum this all up by quoting Shakespeare from Othello, but that would be entirely too pedantic. The short of it is I screwed up and I have only myself to blame, and that is the name of this game, which is almost as poetic as Ms. Ruffian. Congrats to her on hitting a nice one too.  and congrats to all the winners and condolences to the losers like me, but don't despair losers, we shall rise again(maybe?)!!Last edited by cal828 : 01-27-2019 at 10:31 AM.
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#4
01-27-2019, 10:56 AM
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Exotically Felinus
(CAL)
“...short of it is I screwed up and I have only myself to blame, and that is the name of this game, which is almost as ***poetic as Ms. Ruffian.” *** MEOW CAL ACTUALLY I AM A POET, WRITER, SONGWRITER INCLUDING MANY *** HORSE RELATED POEMS ON MY WEBSITE.....*** PAGE #2 IS DEDICATED TO FAMOUS RACE HORSES LIKE HOLY BULL, SKIP AWAY, SUNDAY SILENCE, BLACK TIE AFFAIR {#1 LOVE } YOU MIGHT ENJOY A BROWSE THRU.... AS FOR “HORIZONTAL + VERTICAL EXOTICS” MY ONLY “CONNECTION” TO THOSE “TERMS” = IS WATCHING MY CAT!  MY HANDICAPPING “METHODOLOGY” *** NEVER PLAY WITH CHALK {MESSES UP MY PAWS}  *** NAMES, GRAYS, FAVE SIRES {DISTORTED HUMOR OF COURSE}  AND THAT KIND SIR, IS IT! “Congrats to her on hitting a nice one too” THANKS CAL...... BUT UNFORTUNATELY....MY MOTIVATION FOR HIDDEN SCROLL @ 12/1 WAS RUINED BY “GMTA” BETTERS TO A LOWER ROI  BUT....YA KNOW WHAT SUM MONEY IS BETTER THAN NONE!!!
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#6
01-27-2019, 11:38 AM
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I marveled that a Bill Mott first time starter with the obvious talent of Hidden Scroll could have been kept hidden (pun intended) as well as he was, whether the 12-1 ML was "ruined" down to 8-1 or not (don't you just hate it when bettors knock your price down from the ML?). It is surprising that his ability in workouts and the like wasn't noticed and the word out all over the backside. Ron Nicoletti had some positive things to say about him, but not enough to move the needle very much.
That was a very impressive performance by Hidden Scroll. Kind of reminded me of the way that Pulpit emerged onto the scene in 2001 or so. Scroll seemed to be doing it all on his own and was under wraps for the final 1/16th, yet the final time for the mile was over a second faster than older stakes horse ran in the Fred Hooper later in the day. How long will it take for him to appear on some Derby futures lists?
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#7
01-27-2019, 12:03 PM
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I don't know about that one for Mott, but I put a couple of dollars in the future wagering on one by the name of Mucho that he trains. I haven't done a future wager in a long time and didn't bet much (or "mucho") this year, but put a few dollars on a couple of Bafferts (but probably the wrong ones) and this one of Mott's. It was probably an overly impulsive thing to do, but who knows, by some miracle, might work out. For all his success in horses racing, I don't know that Mott had ever had a KD
winner, but maybe he is about due. Last edited by cal828 : 01-27-2019 at 12:20 PM.
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#8
01-27-2019, 10:48 AM
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Quote:
__________________
The wind of heaven is that which blows between a horse’s ears – Arabian Proverb
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#9
01-27-2019, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
 I am definitely in the overthinking camp, but I don't know that anyone evolves as a handicapper by doing the same thing over and over, but then again, you can sometimes get too far away from the basics. It seems like I did better just paying attention to Beyers than anything else, but now my game is more complicated. I look at figs, try to determine what the pace will be, riders stats, trainer stats, race track conditions, yada, yada, yada. I have seen the enemy and he is definitely me.
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