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#1
08-20-2018, 02:48 PM
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NTRA Top 10
So in the latest poll, Accelerate has moved to the top spot in total points, surpassing Justify. Justify had 31 first place votes to only six for Accelerate but the reason Accelerate is ahead overall is because Justify was left completely off of several ballots. I don’t get that. I can understand a voter thinking Accelerate is the better horse or has done more to be deserving of the top spot but to leave Justify off the ballot makes zero sense. In the past, I’ve argued for certain horses to be voted as champions off of a single race, most notably Ghostzapper in 2005. My argument was based on three points:
1. Was he ELIGIBLE for the award? 2. Was he the BEST horse of all those that were eligible? 3. Precedent was already set by all the European horses that win grass awards here off of one race. Hell, Singspiel won an Eclipse in a year where he DIDNT EVEN WIN A RACE IN THIS COUNTRY!! With that in mind, if you ask yourself the two questions with Justify, the first answer is obviously yes, he’s eligible. The second question is a matter of opinion but there can be no question that he’s top 10. Anyone that’s left him off of their ballot should be outed and stripped of their voting rights. It’s a travesty and makes everyone in the sport look bad.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
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#3
08-20-2018, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Only one of the 30 voters this week cast a vote for Gun Runner anywhere in their respective top 10s and he was HOY last year, is unbeaten in a single start this year, and owns the highest Beyer of any runner this year. And yet you don't give him a mention. Several voters dropped Unique Bella from their ballots, too, presumably because she was retired--like Justify and Gun Runner. Just as your own "one race is enough" perspective is a valid method of ranking horses, a voter arbitrarily requiring a horse to complete (or be on its way to completing) a full campaign in order to earn their present vote is perfectly acceptable.
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#4
08-20-2018, 04:18 PM
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If I was voting, Gun Runner would be my choice. He meets the criteria. I will have to disagree with you when you say it’s perfectly acceptable for a voter to require a horse to have a full campaign or be on the way to it. It leaves too much room for interpretation as to what’s a full campaign? Is it based on number of races? Number of months in training? If you start your season in May and run through the BC, is that a full campaign but if you start in January and go til July, it isn’t? Was Ghostzapper’s 2004 with four races a complete season? What about the aforementioned Gun Runner? He completed what was planned for his season.
I don’t think I’m saying it should be where everyone thinks like me. But I do think it’s reasonable to expect everyone to follow some basic rules. The first one is eligibility. If you leave off horses that are eligible, I think that’s a problem. I’m ok with valuing a full season over an abbreviated one but I don’t think it makes much sense to not count partial seasons when they run more than other honorees did in full seasons.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#5
08-20-2018, 05:02 PM
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Personally, I wouldn't subscribe to the "retirement = ineligible" method, but nevertheless, I still say its a valid perspective. The NTRA-established criteria is simply: (1) the horse started once in the US, (2) the horse is currently in training, or (3) the horse is pointing for a major race in the US. This leaves a whole lot of room for interpretation. I could have Thunder Snow at the top of my list if I wanted.
On the other end of the spectrum, Justify fails to satisfy 2 of the 3 criteria in the here and now, so from a week-to-week standpoint, he can really only lose ground in future polls (maybe not with the alacrity that the esteemed voters have demonstrated). That aside, I agree that partial campaigns should count, if for no other reason than to take away some of the clout of the Breeder's Cup. To that end, I don't see why the NTRA doesn't tally all the points earned by an individual horse throughout the year rather than starting with a clean slate every week. I understand someone not wanting to continue to give points to Justify week in and week out if he is not going to race again, but as you said, his earlier efforts obviously ought to count. Maybe some of these voters will view the final poll (November 8) as some sort of "year end" poll, and will put Justify back in their top 10s then...
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#7
08-21-2018, 06:20 AM
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Rollo and KG, very good discussion! Nice to see different points of view argued so well. I kept thinking, "KG's right." ... "No, maybe Rollo's right."...."then again..."
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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