Friday 7/27 Play

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

Toga 9

$20 DBL 2,5/1

$20 Show 2

^^
Worst play of the meet if not the year

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

^^
Worst play of the meet if not the year

Im sure I’ve made worse.

I was considering putting $200 on Hofburg. But my dad would kick my ass if he ever found out I put something like that on a 1/5 shot. Hofburg looked good but what a weak field.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Im sure I’ve made worse.

I was considering putting $200 on Hofburg. But my dad would kick my ass if he ever found out I put something like that on a 1/5 shot. Hofburg looked good but what a weak field.

That would be a horrible play. In a situation like that when he has 164 K of 201 in the show pool you want to play another horse to show. If Hofburg runs out you collect a bundle but unlike me you need to pick a horse that finishes in the money.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

That would be a horrible play. In a situation like that when he has 164 K of 201 in the show pool you want to play another horse to show. If Hofburg runs out you collect a bundle but unlike me you need to pick a horse that finishes in the money.

Agreed. I’d never actually make that play. To clarify, it would have been $200 to win, but I’d still never do that. Too many variables to risk $200 for a 20% return.

Plus Saratoga has been killing me. I’ve been making some money at Del Mar and losing it the next day at Saratoga. I’ll save my bigger bets for Del Mar for now.

[moses]

Saratoga 10

$10 win 10

[jms62]

Dmr 1

$20 Dbl 10/7,8

[moses]

Del Mar 1

$1 Pick 3
5,10/1,5,6,7,8/3,5,10

$30

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Im sure I’ve made worse.

I was considering putting $200 on Hofburg. But my dad would kick my ass if he ever found out I put something like that on a 1/5 shot. Hofburg looked good but what a weak field.

Hey Mo. the idea of this game is to bet a little...to win a lot. Not bet a lot , to win a little. Please proceed with this approach.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Hey Mo. the idea of this game is to bet a little...to win a lot. Not bet a lot , to win a little. Please proceed with this approach.

Haha. Good point there. That’s generally my approach. Singling Hofburg in a horizontal bet was a much better play than trying to bet him heavy to win. Just one of those things that crosses my mind...and then gets dismissed as a stupid idea. I have a lot of stupid ideas pop into my head. But I’d never actually make a wager like that.

Maybe this is a simple way to look at it but a $10 DD of Hofburg with the 1 & 11 (the two co-favorites in Race 10 yesterday) would have cost $20 but paid $61.00. Would have had to wager $164 on Hofburg to win to win $41.00.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Haha. Good point there. That’s generally my approach. Singling Hofburg in a horizontal bet was a much better play than trying to bet him heavy to win. Just one of those things that crosses my mind...and then gets dismissed as a stupid idea. I have a lot of stupid ideas pop into my head. But I’d never actually make a wager like that.

Maybe this is a simple way to look at it but a $10 DD of Hofburg with the 1 & 11 (the two co-favorites in Race 10 yesterday) would have cost $20 but paid $61.00. Would have had to wager $164 on Hofburg to win to win $41.00.

That is the way to play it. In a full field at a big meet like Saratoga often times the Exacta offers value. You just don't want to use too many horses underneath. Too many folks use too many horses so they need to maintain a high win percentage. You can make money winning 5-10% of the time provided you aren't playing chalk chalk. You just need the stomach for it. I find cursing and ranting and raving helps