Kauto Star

[Hwjb]

Another astounding performance by the best horse I've ever seen.

Kauto Star has now won his past 4 starts by a combined 53 lengths, and here would have won with ease but for making fairly serious errors at 4 out and the last. He still won readily enough by 8 lengths from Exotic Dancer, who ran a big race in second and Racing Demon. Monet's Garden flopped, finishing sixth of the 7 finishers, having made much of the running. He had no answer once Kauto Star loomed up travelling with ridiculous ease before 4 out.

It would appear that the only way in which he can be beaten is if he doesn;t stay on his feet...and, it should be borne in mind that he will have to treat the fences at Cheltenham with more respect than he did those at Kempton yesterday. Nevertheless, at just 6 years of age, who looks set to dominate the sport for years to come. A really special, once in a lifetime horse.

[brockguy]

another great performance from Kauto.. So good to see him destroy a proper field there on st. stephens day. The way he quickened up between the second last and last was brilliant making two quick horses look very slow .. However, if he jumps like he did there at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he will not win, and probably wont stay on his feet. It's great to see such a fantastic horse and I just hope he continues safe and well for the season... War Of Attrition and Beef Or Salmon tomorrow. Another cracker.. Tough one to call..

Cardus, Ill let someone with more knowledge than me try to answer that one..

[Hwjb]

Well, Brock, I certainly couldn't profess to have more knowledge than you, but I'll have a stab!

First, jumpers are thoroughbreds, descended from the same lines as the stars of the Flat.
Age-wise, there are several things, I think that necessitate their being elder. Clearly speed isn't such a prerequisite over jumps, stamina is, and speed tends to be the first thing to go as a horse matures. On the other hand something they acquire is experience, a kind of canny intelligence. Again, there is no need for this when running over a mile in a straight line or round a couple of bends, but when knowing what to do at a fence, knowing to find a leg on the other side takes experience. Finally, I think, and I'm certainly no expert in this regard, but I would imagine that the immense pressures put on a horse's body would be far more liable to injure or kill if placed on an immature juvenile.
It's worth bearing in mind that around 50% of jump horses come from Flat racing, whereas half are bred by stallions with more stamina in their pedigree and go jumping straight away.

IMO, I would imagine that speed is the overriding reason, and it tends to be over the longer distances of 3m+, not 2m, that horses aged 11-13 still meet with success. Also, for Kauto Star to have reached his level of brilliance at 6 speaks volumes for his future - there are no limits to what he can achieve - and if he wins the Gold Cup in March, at 7, he will do so at the same age as the two three-time Gold Cup winners Best Mate (who won the first of his 3 in 2002) and the immortal, incomporable Arkle (1964-1966).

[Unstable]

Kauto Star is undoubtably a very, very nice horse but to compare him to Arkle this early on is quite alarming. Kauto still has a long way to go to get anywhere near Dessie or Arkle (i know official ratings suggest otherwise) but its only a matter of time before he takes a crashing fall. He was lucky that Kempton was up and running, he wouldnt have stood up at many of the other tracks in this country, Kempton fences are not as firm as many, which allowed him to go right through it as you saw from the pictures.

I would still like to see what he does on quicker ground before i say he is a complete machine. The times he has encountered fast(er) ground he has fallen........ jumping at pace does get the better of him.

His Tingle Creek win impressed me the most out of his wins this year so far. The King George looked very good but im slightly concerned about what the form might amount to with the proximity of Exotic Dancer who had only ran in graded handicaps before boxing day. Monet's Garden didnt run his race and he is obviously better at 2 1/2 miles. In the Tingle Creek, Kauto showed he can jump well (his jumping at the railway fences was great) and they are very hard to jump at speed, and he showed a great change of gears too.

In the Betfair chase at Haydock he showed he stayed the 3miles but that was it. The horses he beat on that occasion were either passed their best or didnt perform (Beef Or Salmon, for whatever reason cant perform in England).

I cant see Kauto Star winning the Gold Cup the extra 2 1/2 furlongs around cheltenham is a big concern as well as the good or faster ground and the good gallop they go for such a race. He definitley is not value at the current odds.

As far as age goes for hurdlers and steeplechasers, in the UK a horse cannot run in a hurdle race until it is at leat 3, and most of the 'true' 'national hunt' bred horse dont enter the hurdles scene until four.

The youngest a horse can run in steeplechase races in the Uk is 4 but there are very few that actually do this (Paul Nicholls often does it though) most dont start steeplechasing until at least the age of 5 and usually not until 6 or 7.

In France it is different as three year olds can run in chases, i think.

[Hwjb]

Of course, I'd never even suggest that he is on the same planet as Arkle - only Flyingbolt can claim to have been in the past 50 years - and I think we would need to see Kauto run in another handicap before elevating him towards those legends (his win at Aintree was achieved off what, in hindsight, was a very lenient mark of 167).
Rated on 184+, he is still rated 2 stone below Arkle with us, but just 3lb shy of Dessie and level with Moscow Flyer. Given that he is just 6 years of age I don't think its presumptious to imagine that he can become the greatest British-trained horse since the 1960s - its almost impossible to evaluate the likes of Golden Miller and Easter Hero when competition was lacking - which currently is Mill House on 191.

With regard his jumping at speed, you have to remember that he will have been travelling a lot quicker in a soft ground Tingle Creek - where his fencing was largely impressive - than he will do in a good/good-firm Gold Cup. In addition, at Cheltenham he will be held up off the pace, as at Haydock, which should similarly place less pressure on his jumping. Lets remember Arkle too made mistakes, but the sign of a great horse is being able to stand up in spite of them. I do, however, agree that he doesn't represent value at current odds for the Gold Cup - far from it!

[Unstable]

As you say, i would like to see him run in a handicap to get a better idea of how good he REALLY is. But gone are the days now when very good horses go back into handicap company and cary over 12st, usually giving aleast a whole st at least to the rivals.

Although War Of Attrition hasnt had the best of seasons (well, thats if you jst see the form figures alone) he would still be my bet. He loves the better ground, stays well as we saw back in that very, very cold day in March......... and jumps like a stag. He hasnt had his ground this year so far.

Everyone was piling into The Listener after his emphatic win yesterday but he's just another Roselier that needs it heavier than the north sea.

Any ante post bets sorted for Cheltenham yet? Ive got a few but they are more like trading out bets for closer to the time.....i.e. Black Jack in the champion hurdle (still think theres a possibility).

[Hwjb]

I've laid Black Jack for the World Hurdle at evens. Sure he has the best claims, and may well win, but that is far too short.

I've thrown a bit of cash at Denman at 250 for the Arkle. Hugely unlikely, I know, but will regain all money by lumping on him if he does go for the Sun Alliance...for all that I was taken with Cailin Ailinn yesterday.
Also in the Arkle I've layed Fair Along at 5/1, so would be good to see him getting turned over today - Victoria's Groom is an interesting runner at a huge price in the opener at Newbury.

Have also laid My Way de Solzen for the Ch Chase. They're a poor bunch of 2m chasers but at longer odds I'm siding with Newmill, plus there's a chance that Well Chief could be back, and if he's anywhere near his best, he wins.

Quite liked De Soto for the Supreme, and 13.5 seems like a decent price, toying with sticking a tenner on as we speak!

Unfortunately I backed Desert Quest after his Ascot romp at 12/1 for the Champ Hdl, which was stupid as he's now available at 30s!!