Tenfold

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

Wow, Freddy, thanks so much for that shrewd observation. Here I thought I was fessing up to some shoddy thinking and writing. Little did I realize that my real goal was to point out that my estimate of Justify's chances, after admittedly slanting them in Justify's favor, lined up with the betting pool.

I'm grateful that you took the time to read it and set me straight.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

Biggest red board out here Freddy Mo starring as the pot calling the kettle black on what was a negative red board where he fessed up....