Tenfold

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

It seems like there are two factions: those who think Justify will win easily and those who think he won’t even hit the board. I guess I’m in the middle.

I guess I'm in the middle, too. I think Justify is by far the most likely winner of the Belmont, but at the same time, I think it's more likely he doesn't win than does win. So if he indeed goes off at 1-1 or lower, which seems likely, I'll be looking to bet some other horses to win.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I guess I'm in the middle, too. I think Justify is by far the most likely winner of the Belmont, but at the same time, I think it's more likely he doesn't win than does win. So if he indeed goes off at 1-1 or lower, which seems likely, I'll be looking to bet some other horses to win.

Glad to know I’m not alone in my thoughts. Are you leaning toward any particular horses?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Glad to know I’m not alone in my thoughts. Are you leaning toward any particular horses?

I won't know until I make a line, and laziness is keeping me from doing that until I'm confident that Justify will be no higher that 1-1. I do hope I'll be able to rationalize bets on Hofburg, Bravazo and/or Tenfold, though. If I could bet on every other horse in the race in amounts that would net me 1-1 no matter which one won, I would. But that's not going to happen.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I won't know until I make a line, and laziness is keeping me from doing that until I'm confident that Justify will be no higher that 1-1. I do hope I'll be able to rationalize bets on Hofburg, Bravazo and/or Tenfold, though. If I could bet on every other horse in the race in amounts that would net me 1-1 no matter which one won, I would. But that's not going to happen.

I think he’ll be under 1-1. Over the last 30 years, the highest odds for a horse that won the first two legs was I believe 8-5 (Charismatic). The others to go off above even money were War Emblem at I believe 6-5 and Silver Charm who was just slightly above even money. I think that’s it. Funny Cide was exactly 1-1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

I think he’ll be under 1-1. Over the last 30 years, the highest odds for a horse that won the first two legs was I believe 8-5 (Charismatic). The others to go off above even money were War Emblem at I believe 6-5 and Silver Charm who was just slightly above even money. I think that’s it. Funny Cide was exactly 1-1.

It doesn't look like Justify will be wildly overbet. With $2.67 million in the win pool, $1.14 million has been bet on Justify. That's just 43% of the win pool on Justify. 43% is in the ballpark for what I think his chances to win are.

I doubt that there will be a big rush of money on Justify. Justify's odds have been creeping up all day at PinnacleSports, and now stand at 1.10-1. (And if you want to bet that Justify doesn't win, you have to put up 125 to win 100, up from 116 earlier.)

It looks like I'll be a spectator on this one.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It doesn't look like Justify will be wildly overbet. With $2.67 million in the win pool, $1.14 million has been bet on Justify. That's just 43% of the win pool on Justify. 43% is in the ballpark for what I think his chances to win are.

I doubt that there will be a big rush of money on Justify. Justify's odds have been creeping up all day at PinnacleSports, and now stand at 1.10-1. (And if you want to bet that Justify doesn't win, you have to put up 125 to win 100, up from 116 earlier.)

It looks like I'll be a spectator on this one.

Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

One note on Tenfold, but it looks like he got stuck between two horses converging early, got pinched a bit, and had to awkwardly pull out and duck inside. Granted, I think that had little impact on the results and I’m not sure if the horses even touched. Maybe talking about him 3rd or 4th instead of 5th, if he improved at all which is debatable. Still, probably a bad move by the jockey to try to out sprint Noble Indy and Restoring Hope.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.